過去40年來，環境相關的議題一直是學者所關注的焦點。然而，不確定環境在文獻中，不論在概念、操作型定義、測量指標與方法至目前為止仍無一致性的共識。因此，本研究的目的為，以資訊不確定理論與資源相依理論作為基礎，發展不確定環境量表。在題項產生階段，本研究透過文獻回顧與專家訪談建立題項庫，共有105題。預試階段，首先進行專家效度，共刪除38題，而後針對服務於科技產業與製造業的EMBA學生進行取樣，共收集150份有效樣本，進行項目分析，共刪除6題。
在正式施測階段，針對科技業與製造業進行取樣，共獲得350份有效問卷。經由探索性因素分析，共萃取出六個因素，分別命名為技術不確定、市場預測、競爭者威脅、競爭態勢、顧客不確定與供應鏈不確定，共19題。而驗證性因素分析結果顯示，由探索性因素分析所萃取出的六個構面皆達到良好的適配，並進一步驗證收斂效度與區別效度。研究結果顯示，本研究結合資訊不確定理論與資源相依理論，其中資訊不確定理論包含市場創新、市場預測與顧客不確定；而資源相依理論則包含競爭者威脅、競爭者態勢與供應鏈不確定。此外，本研究驗證不確定環境為一多向度量表並具有良好的信效度；最後，不同的產業別在不確定環境量表並無差異。

During the past four decades, the environmental issues have been attracting scholars’ attentions. However, environmental uncertainty continues to generate disagreement in the literature such as conceptualization, operational definition, indicators and measurement method. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to combine information uncertainty theory and resource dependence theory to develop environmental uncertainty scale. In item generation, we construct our item pool by literature and expert interview including 105 items.  In the pre-test, we tested content validity and deleted 38 items.  We collected data from EMBA students who work in electronic and manufacture industries. A total of 150 valid sample were collected and performed item analysis. In items analysis, we deleted 6 items. 
The scale was then administered to a larger sample (N=350) which was selected from electronic and manufacture industries. Exploratory factor analysis showed that six factors was extracted and named technology uncertainty, market prediction, competitive threaten, competitive situation, customer uncertainty and supply chain uncertainty including 19 items. Results of confirmatory factor analysis showed that all dimensions of the scale fitted the data well and demonstrated converge validity and discriminate validity. In conclusion, we combined two theories in environmental uncertainty scale. Information uncertainty theory includies technology uncertainty, market prediction and customer uncertainty while resource dependency theory contain competitive threaten, competitive situation and supply chain uncertainty. Moreover, we confirmed that environmental uncertainty is a multidimensional scale and verified that it had good reliability and validity. Finally, we found that there were no difference between high-tech and manufacture industries.

表目錄	III
圖目錄	V
第一章 緒論	1
1.1 研究背景動機	1
1.2 研究目的	7
1.3研究流程	7
第二章 文獻探討	9
2.1 風險與不確定	9
2.2 不確定環境之理論基礎	10
2.3 不確定環境的定義與分類	14
2.4 不確定環境的測量取向	16
2.5 不確定環境的構面與測量	20
2.6 不確定環境測量的信效度驗證	26
2.7 不確定環境測量工具的回顧與評析	30
2.8 組織結果相關變項	42
第三章 研究方法	46
3.1 量表發展流程	46
3.2 題項產生、精簡與內容效度	47
3.3 研究對象與抽樣程序	50
3.4 量表變項與測量	54
3.5 資料分析方法	55
第四章 資料分析與結果	58
4.1 項目分析	58
4.2 探索性因素分析	61
4.3 驗證性因素分析	67
4.4 競爭模型	70
4.5 收斂效度	74
4.6 因素間相關係數	76
4.7 區別效度	76
4.8 組織相關變項之關係	77
4.9 複核效化	81
第五章 結論與建議	84
5.1 研究結論與貢獻	84
5.2 管理意涵	91
5.3 研究限制與後續研究建議	92
參考文獻	96
一、中文部份	96
二、英文部分	96
附錄一 不確定環境量表比較表	107
附錄二 本研究題項庫	109
附錄三 內容分析結果表	130
附錄四 項目分析結果摘要表	135
附錄五 研究問卷	139
附錄六 不確定環境正式量表	144

表目錄
表2-1 風險與不確定概念比較表..........................................................10
表2-2 資訊不確定觀點與資源依賴觀點比較表..................................14
表2-3 不確定環境觀點與分類整理表..................................................16
表2-4 不確定環境構面分類表..............................................................25
表2-5 不確定環境信效度驗證整理表..................................................28
表2-6 不確定環境測量向度整理表......................................................32
表2-7 各學者所提之構面名稱與定義整理表......................................35
表2-8 不確定環境其適用產業整理......................................................39
表3-1 實務專家訪談名單......................................................................49
表3-2 預試背景變項描述統計表...........................................................51
表3-3 背景變項描述統計表...................................................................54
表4-1 探索性因素分析結果摘要表......................................................64
表4-2 斜交轉軸因子相關矩陣..............................................................67
表4-3 驗證性因素分析指標評判標準表..............................................67
表4-4 驗證性因素分析各契合度指標表..............................................69
表4-5 各測量模型適配指標..................................................................71
表4-6 各競爭模型適配指標..................................................................73
表4-7 單階斜交模型參數估計、標準化係數與組合信度摘要表.......75
表4-8 相關係數矩陣...............................................................................76
表4-9 區別效度結果摘要表...................................................................77
表4-10 不確定環境量表與各變項相關係數表....................................78
表4-11 不確定環境量表與效標變項的迴歸分析結果........................81
表4-12 模型複核效化摘要表................................................................82
表4-13 產業別在各因素的平均數檢定分析結果................................83


圖目錄
圖1-1 策略管理核心架構........................................................................1
圖1-2 不確定環境整合概念圖................................................................4
圖1-3 研究流程圖.....................................................................................8
圖2-1 主觀環境與客觀環境間的關係..................................................19
圖2-2 環境的分類架構...........................................................................24
圖3-1 本研究量表發展流程..................................................................46
圖3-2 題項產生流程圖...........................................................................49

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