兩次的俄烏斷氣衝突使歐洲的天然氣供應被切斷，影響著歐盟的能源安全；白俄羅斯侵犯人權與破壞民主自由，烏克蘭親西與親俄撕裂了國家的完整，摩爾多瓦親西與摩共的紛亂以及俄羅斯駐軍問題，喬治亞與俄羅斯的領土戰爭，亞塞拜然與亞美尼亞雙方的領土糾紛等；種種問題困擾著歐盟邊境安全。
    歐盟藉由能源共同體和興建納布科管線來解決能源安全問題，提出東方夥伴計畫來達成邊境的穩定；但是土耳其位於納布科管線的重要樞紐，地中海聯盟與睦鄰政策也使計畫效力遞減；歐盟內部成員不團結與各自利益的盤算將使政策更難達成共識。
    政策也使俄羅斯加強對傳統勢力範圍的作用力，結合能源和軍事力量去影響東方夥伴國，甚至利用能源外交與歐盟成員國建立能源夥伴，建立歐亞聯盟與歐盟相抗衡，達到恢復大國的願景。在兩強的平衡中，東方夥伴國如何各自謀求利益最大化。

Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, natural gas export to Europe were cut off twice and affect EU's energy security. Violations of human rights, democracy and freedom in Belarus.  Pro-Western and Pro-Russian Ukrainians split country into two rival sides. Pro-West, Pro-Russian   and the Russian garrison issues in Moldova. Territorial war between Russia and Georgia. Azerbaijan and Armenia territorial war. EU worried about their security at border.
    By the EU Energy Community and the construction of Nabucco pipeline to protect their energy security . The Eastern Partnership plan to achieve stability in the border. However, Turkey is located in an important position on the route of Nabucco pipeline. The Mediterranean Union and the European Neighborhood Policy decrease Eastern Partnership's in effect. Member of the EU disunity and their interests different, then, policy will be the deuce to pay.
    Policy wake Russian up and add their force into own traditional area, combined with the energy and military power to influence the Eastern Partnership countries. Even use of energy diplomacy with Members of the EU to set up energy partnerships. Russian organize the Eurasian Union to resist EU invasion, hope to become one of the great powers in the world. Between the Russian and EU, how the Eastern Partnership countries to seek maximum of their benefits.

章節安排
第一章	緒論 1
第一節	研究動機與目的 1
第二節	研究方法與分析架構 7
第三節	文獻分析與探討 13
第四節	研究範圍與限制 18
第五節	研究架構 20
第二章	歐盟東方夥伴計畫的背景 21
第一節	東擴後歐盟東鄰地區的情勢變遷 21
第二節	在白俄羅斯、烏克蘭與摩爾多瓦實行的困境 31
第三節	在喬治亞、亞塞拜然與亞美尼亞實行的困境 41
第四節	小結 51
第三章	歐盟東方夥伴計畫的困境 53
第二節	歐盟做出的策略與行動 63
第三節	小結 73
第四章	歐盟東方夥伴計畫的影響 75
第一節	對俄羅斯的衝擊 75
第二節	俄羅斯的反應 85
第三節	小結 96
第五章	結論 98
參考資料 105

圖目錄
圖1.納布科管線 2
圖2.歐盟成員國 3
圖3.俄羅斯主要輸出歐洲的天然氣管線 4
圖4.古阿姆集團(GUUAM) 6
圖5.系統理論 11
圖6.BTC管線 51
圖7.能源共同體成員國 72
圖8.納布科管線 73
圖9.藍流和巴爾幹管線 94
圖10.土耳其流(Турецкий поток) 95
圖11.北溪(Северный поток) 96

表目錄
表格1.民主選舉 23

參考資料
中文書籍
1.沈默(1967)，地緣政治，臺北：文和印刷公司，中央圖書供應社。
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4.孫敬亭(2009)，歐盟形成單一天然氣市場的障礙：俄羅斯因素，國際關係研究2009，北京：時事出版社。
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中文期刊論文
1.久保庭真彰(2012)，俄羅斯與歐亞能源俄羅斯經濟的轉折點與「俄羅斯病」，俄羅斯研究，第1期，1-54。
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7.明海會、代琤、劉任遠(2010)，中亞油氣出口多元化新進程，中國石油石化，第7期，46-49。
8.洪美蘭(2012)，歐盟與俄羅斯的能源貿易問題：以跨國天然氣管為例，臺灣歐洲聯盟中心、政治大學歐洲聯盟莫內教學模組計畫、國家圖書館，1-9。
9.陳志剛(2013)，歷史研究法在教育研究運用中應注意的要求，教育科學研究，第3期，76-80。
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13.畢洪業(2014)，俄白聯盟的困境及前景，歐亞經濟，第2期，96-104。
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1.何世煌，「親歐或親俄 烏克蘭兩難的抉擇」，中央社，〈http://mag.udn.com/mag/newsstand/storypage.jsp?f_ART_ID=492258〉(2014/5/21)。
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27.“Gaza,” The guardian, 〈http://www.theguardian.com/world/gaza〉(2015/3/20).
28.“Greek Debt Crisis Worsens,” New American, 〈http://www.thenewamerican.com/world-news/europe/item/8553-greek-debt-crisis-worsens〉(2015/3/20).
29.IMF(International Monetary Fund),  〈http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm〉 (2014/6/11).
30.Kanter James, “European Union Seeks Power to Block Bilateral Energy Deals,” The New York Times, 〈http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/business/global/eu-seeks-power-to-bloc-bilateral-energy-deals.html.〉(2014/5/14).
31.“Member countries of the EU,” EU, 〈http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries〉(2014/3/5).
32.“Major russian gas pipelines to europe.png,” Wikipedia, 〈http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png〉(2014/3/6).
33.“MEMBERS,” Energy Community, 〈https://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOME/MEMBERS〉(2015/3/20).
34.Manfreda Primoz , “Definition of the Arab Spring Middle East Uprisings in 2011,”about news, 〈http://middleeast.about.com/bio/Primoz-Manfreda-108362.htm〉(2015/3/20).
35.“NATO’s relations with Georgia,” NATO, 〈http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_38988.htm〉(2015/4/5).
36.“Nagorno-Karabakh profile,” BBC News, 〈http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18270325.〉(2014/5/21).
37.“Organization for Democracy and Economic Development-GUAM,” globalsecurity.org, 〈http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/int/guuam.htm〉(2014/5/15).
38.“Portugal's 78bn euro bail-out is formally approved,” BBC,  〈http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13408497〉(2015/3/20).
39.“Russia drops South Stream gas pipeline plan,” BBC, 〈http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30283571〉(2015/4/10).
40.“Russia’s borders: Azerbaijan benefits from not offending its more powerful neighbor,” The Conversation,
〈http://theconversation.com/russias-borders-azerbaijan-benefits-from-not-offending-its-more-powerful-neighbour-35221〉(2015/4/10).
41.“Recknagel Charles, “Nabucco Pipeline Suffers Setback As Rival Expected To Get Azeri Gas,” Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, 〈http://www.rferl.org/content/nabucco-gas-pipeline-rivals-future-in-doubt/25030223.html〉(2014/3/6). 
42.“Single Support Framework for EU support to Armenia,”EU, 1-25, 〈http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/pdf/financing-the-enp/armenia_2014_2017_programming_document_en.pdf〉(2015/3/20).
43.“Summary on EU- Azerbaijan Relations,” EU, 〈http://eeas.europa.eu/azerbaijan/eu_azerbaijan_summary/index_en.htm〉(2015/3/20).
44.“Strategy Paper and Multiannual Indicative Programme for EU support to Belarus(2014-2017),” EU, 1-34, 〈http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/pdf/financing-the-enp/belarus_2014_2017_programming_document_en.pdf〉(2015/3/20).
45.“Shah Deniz Stage 1,” BP, 〈http://www.bp.com/en_az/caspian/operationsprojects/Shahdeniz/SDstage1.html〉(2015/3/20).
46.“Social policy,” EU, 〈http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/institutional_affairs/treaties/lisbon_treaty/ai0023_en.htm〉(2015/3/20).
47.Sergei Blagov, “GUUAM Makes Comeback Bid With US Support,” EURASIANET.ORG, 〈http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav070703.shtml〉(2015/4/20).
48.“South Caucasus pipeline,” BP, 〈http://www.bp.com/en_az/caspian/operationsprojects/pipelines/SCP.html〉(2015/4/10).
49.“Theory Pictures,” Scientific Imaging and Imagination,                                                              〈http://scientific-imaging.blogspot.tw/2012_04_01_archive.html〉(2014/5/15).
50.“The Fourth Reich: What Some Europeans See When They Look at Germany,” special online, 〈http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-power-in-the-age-of-the-euro-crisis-a-1024714.html〉(2015/3/20).
51.“Time for Plan B: How the Euro Became Europe's Greatest Threat,” special online, 〈http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/time-for-plan-b-how-the-euro-became-europe-s-greatest-threat-a-769329.html〉(2015/3/20).
52.“Taking sides with pipelines,” RT, 〈http://rt.com/politics/taking-sides-with-pipelines/〉(2015/5/7).
53.“Turkey as an energy hub for Europe: prospects and challenges,” EU, 〈http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-09-89_en.htm〉(2015/3/20).
54.“The Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council,” NATO, 〈http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49276.htm〉(2015/3/20).
55.“Ukraine country profile-Overview,” BBC,  〈http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18018002〉(2015/3/20).
56.“Ukraine crisis: Timeline,” BBC, 〈http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26248275〉(2015/3/20).
57.“Ukraine crisis in maps,” BBC,〈http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27308526〉(2015/3/25).
58.“Ukraine ceasefire: New Minsk agreement key points,” BBC, 〈http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31436513〉(2015/4/5).
59.“Ukraine crisis: Russia and sanctions,” BBC, 〈http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26672800〉(2015/4/5).
60.“Western Route Export Pipeline,” BP, 〈http://www.bp.com/en_az/caspian/operationsprojects/pipelines/WREP.html〉(2015/4/10).
61.“20 years after the launch of the Barcelona process,” EU, 〈http://ec.europa.eu/commission/2014-2019/hahn/blog/20-years-after-launch-barcelona-process_en〉(2015/3/20).
Official Documents
1.“Implementation of the European Neighbourhood Policy, Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity, with the Southern Mediterranean Partners Report,” SWD(2015)75final, EU, 1-15, 〈http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/pdf/2015/enp-regional-report-southern-mediterranean_en.pdf〉(2015/3/20).
2.“Implementation of the European Neighbourhood Policy in Ukraine, Progress in 2014 and recommendations for actions,” SWD(2015)74 final, EU, 1-20, 〈http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/pdf/2015/ukraine-enp-report-2015_en.pdf〉(2015/3/20).
3.“Implementation of the European Neighbourhood Policy in Georgia Progress in 2014 and recommendations for actions,” SWD(2015)66 final, EU, 1-16, 〈http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/pdf/2015/georgia-enp-report-2015_en.pdf〉(2015/3/20).
4.“Official Journal of the European Union L 260 Volume 57(30 August 2014),” EU, 1-774, 〈http://eeas.europa.eu/moldova/pdf/eu-md_aa-dcfta_en.pdf〉(2015/3/20).
5.“Treaty Establishing The Energy Community,” EU , 〈https://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOME/ENERGY_COMMUNITY/Legal/Treaty〉(2015/3/20).
6.“Treaty of Maastricht on European Union,” EU, 〈http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/institutional_affairs/treaties/treaties_maastricht_en.htm〉(2015/3/20).

Интернет
1.	“Алексей Миллер и Танер Йылдыз обсудили Турецкий поток,” Газпром, <http://www.gazprom.ru/press/news/2015/may/article226016/>(2015/5/7).
2.	“Британия смягчила тон в оценках конфликта в Южной Осетии в 2008 году, ” Российская Газета, <http://www.rg.ru/2013/08/08/britania-anons.html>(2014/5/21).
3.	“В Минобороны РФ в очередной раз отвергли обвинения со стороны Украины,” Первый Канал, <http://www.1tv.ru/news/polit/283841>(2015/4/5).
4.	“Голубой поток, ” Газпром,                                             <http://www.gazprom.ru/about/production/projects/pipelines/blue-stream/>(2015/5/7).
5.	“Европа, ” Газпром, <http://www.gazprom.ru/about/marketing/europe/>(2015/3/25).
6.	“Новак: Евросоюз должен помочь Киеву оплатить газ,” ТВ Центр, <http://www.tvc.ru/news/show/id/64866>(2015/4/5).
7.	“Организация за демократию и экономическое развитие- ГУАМ, ” ГУАМ, <http://guam-organization.org/node/240>(2015/4/5).
8.	“Северный поток,” Газпром,
<http://www.gazprom.ru/about/production/projects/pipelines/nord-stream/>(2015/5/7).
9.	“Северный поток- надежный и эффективный маршрут поставок российского газа в Европу, ” Газпром, <http://www.gazprom.ru/press/news/2015/april/article223764/>(2015/4/10).
10.	“Эксперт: у Газпрома есть козыри, и он еще их выложит на стол,” ТВ Центр, <http://www.tvc.ru/news/show/id/66793>(2015/4/25).
Официальные Документы
1.	“Концепция национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, ” в редакции Указа Президента Российской Федерации, № 24.(10 января 2000 г.), <http://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/1.html>(2015/4/10).
2.	“Нагорно-Карабахская Республика:история и современность,” Аппарат Президента Республики Армения,                                 < http://www.president.am/ru/karabakh-nkr/>(2014/4/10).
3.	“О ходе Евразийской экономической интеграции, ” Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации,                                                          <http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/ns-rsng.nsf/559a6afd63b0fb02432569ee0048fe70/7997bf0078720d1d44257cc900416fd5!OpenDocument >(2015/4/10).
4.	“Основных направлений политики Российской Федерации в сфере международного культурно-гуманитарного сотрудничества, ” Министерство иностранных дел Российской Федерации,   <http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/ns-rsng.nsf/559a6afd63b0fb02432569ee0048fe70/ea3a8c165f1b168d43257de100513350!OpenDocument>(2015/4/10).
5.	“Президент поздравил СБУ: Соотечественники должны вас уважать, а враги- бояться,” принадлежат Администрации Президента Украины, <http://www.president.gov.ua/ru/news/32547.html> (2015/3/25).
6.	“Стратегия национальной безопасности Российской Федерации до 2020 года, ” Указом Президента Российской Федерации, № 537.(12 мая 2009 г.),<http://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/99.html> (2014/5/14).
7.	“Стратегический курс России с государствами-участниками Содружества Независимых Государств, ” Утвержден Указом Президента Российской Федерации, № 940.(14 сентября 1995 г.), <http://www.mid.ru/bdomp/ns-osndoc.nsf/e2f289bea62097f9c325787a0034c255/4e3d23b880479224c325707a00310fad!OpenDocument>(2015/04/10).
8.	“Энергетическая стратегия России на период до 2030 года,” Утверждена распоряжением Правительства Российской Федерации, № 1715-р. (13 ноября 2009 г), <http://minenergo.gov.ru/aboutminen/energostrategy/ch_5.php#l1.>(2014/5/14).