系統識別號 | U0002-1608201610542900 |
---|---|
DOI | 10.6846/TKU.2016.00425 |
論文名稱(中文) | 杜魯門總統使用原子彈的決策過程 |
論文名稱(英文) | The Decision-Making Process of President Truman’s Use of Atomic Bomb |
第三語言論文名稱 | |
校院名稱 | 淡江大學 |
系所名稱(中文) | 國際事務與戰略研究所博士班 |
系所名稱(英文) | Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies |
外國學位學校名稱 | |
外國學位學院名稱 | |
外國學位研究所名稱 | |
學年度 | 104 |
學期 | 2 |
出版年 | 105 |
研究生(中文) | 舒孝煌 |
研究生(英文) | Hsiao-Huang Shu |
學號 | 896330056 |
學位類別 | 博士 |
語言別 | 繁體中文 |
第二語言別 | |
口試日期 | 2016-06-16 |
論文頁數 | 294頁 |
口試委員 |
指導教授
-
陳一新
共同指導教授 - 明居正 委員 - 李大中 委員 - 盧業中 委員 - 蔡增家 |
關鍵字(中) |
原子彈 杜魯門 決策理論 戰略轟炸 |
關鍵字(英) |
Harry S. Truman Atomic Bomb Decision-Making |
第三語言關鍵字 | |
學科別分類 | |
中文摘要 |
1941年,在羅斯福總統同意下,美國秘密進行原子彈發展計畫,被稱為曼哈坦計畫,後來由戰爭部接手,因計畫高度保密,華府知道的人極為有限,1944年,英相邱吉爾與羅斯福決定,原子彈要用在對日作戰。1945年4月12日羅斯福過世,杜魯門接任總統,4月27日戰爭部長史汀生向他簡報,他才得知原子彈計畫。 5月7日德國投降,歐戰結束後,杜魯門隨即面臨困難的抉擇,要儘快結束對日戰爭,日本雖因美國的戰略轟炸,國內經濟及作戰能力已摧毀殆盡,然仍不願投降。美國軍事首長以太平洋戰爭經驗估算,若登陸日本,美軍將會付出高昂代價,而美軍在太平洋地區疊床架屋的作戰指揮架構及混亂的作戰計畫,不但對日作戰戰略難以統一,何時能擊敗日本並結束戰爭,仍遙遙無期。 接著7月16日波茨坦會議前夕,原子彈試爆成功,美國陸航軍專為轟炸改造的B-29轟炸機也已部署完畢。在杜魯門同意下,戰爭部長史汀生下令轟炸日本。8月6日第一枚原子彈投擲在廣島,8月9日第二枚原子彈投擲在長崎,8月14日,日本宣布接受波茨坦宣言條件投降,二次大戰正式結束。 本論文以艾利遜在分析古巴飛彈危機時所使用的三項決策分析模式,即理性模式、組織模式及政府政治模式,作為研究途徑,分析二戰時美國決定投擲原子彈的決策過程。 本論文目的在探討1945年杜魯門決定對日使用原子彈的決策過程。藉由決策理論的研究架構,瞭解美國總統在戰爭期間如何進行重大軍事決策,決策時的考量因素、政府及軍事組織在決策時扮演的角色,以及總統如何考量全局後作出決策。 本論文論點認為,杜魯門上任時的首要目標是擊敗日本,快速結束太平洋戰爭,他考量所有能夠擊敗日本的政策選項,雖然戰爭部、海軍部及其麾下的陸軍、海軍及陸軍航空軍等軍方高階將領,會提供他們認為可行的軍事選項,但國務院也會就戰後國際秩序、對抗蘇聯等角度提供意見。但杜魯門總統需綜合思考政治、外交等所有因素,最後他決定使用原子彈,以達到促使日本投降、快速結束戰爭,並降低戰爭成本及人員傷亡的目的。 本論文認為,杜魯門使用原子彈的主要目的是軍事用途,其目的在儘快對日戰爭,恢復和平與秩序;影響決定使用原子彈決策中,擔負最重要任務的政府組織是戰爭部,而扮演最重要角色的幕僚則是史汀生。為了達成目標,杜魯門需說服其政府中的各軍政官員,並在最後做出投擲原子彈的決定。 |
英文摘要 |
In 1941, President Franklin D. Roosevelt with the consent of the US secret atomic bomb development program, known as the Manhattan Project and later taken over by the War Department. Due to highly confidential plan, people know Washington D.C. is extremely rare at that time. In 1944, U.K. Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Roosevelt decided to use the atomic bomb against Japan. April 12, 1945 Roosevelt died, Harry S. Truman took over as President. After Secretary of War Stimson to brief him on April 27, Truman learned the atomic bomb project. May 7, Third Reich surrendered, ending the war in Europe. Truman immediately faced with a difficult choice, as soon as possible to end the war with Japan. US strategic bombing almost defeated Japan, their domestic economy and combat capability has been destroyed and exhausted, but still reluctant to surrender. US military chiefs estimate based on the experience of the Pacific war, if landed in Japan, the US military will be costly. The US military complex and overlapping in the Pacific combat command structure, and confusion of battle plans, not only to unified strategy against Japan, when it can defeated Japan and end the war , is still remain elusive. Then on the eve of the Potsdam Conference, July 16, atomic bomb test is successful, designed for the transformation of the bombing of USAAF B-29 has been deployed. In Truman agreed, Secretary of War Stimson ordered the bombing of Japan . The first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, August 9 a second atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki. On August 14, Japan announced its acceptance of the Potsdam Declaration to surrender conditions , World War II officially ended. In this paper, Graham Allison’s three decision analysis model to in the analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis is used, namely the rational model, organizational model and government political model, as approaches of research, to analysis the decision making process of United States dropped the atomic bomb at World War II. This paper’s objective is to investigate Truman decided to use the atomic bomb against Japan 's decision-making process. With decision theory’s research framework, understanding how the President to conduct major military decisions during the war, the considerations, government and military organizations’ role, and the president made the decision after thinking how the overall situation. The paper’s point is, Truman’s primary objective is to defeat Japan when he took office, the fast end of the Pacific war. He was able consider all policy options, although the War Department, and the Department of the Navy, and the Army, Navy and Army Air Force, and other military commander will appreciate that they consider viable military option, but also the State Department on the postwar international order, against the Soviet Union and other angles to provide advice to President. But Truman integrated consideration needs all political, diplomatic, military, and finally he decided to use the atomic bomb, in order to achieve the purposes: prompt Japan's surrender, the war ended quickly, and reduce the cost of war and casualties. This paper argues that the Truman's main purpose of the atomic bomb is military use, its purpose in the war against Japan as soon as possible, to restore peace and order ; The factor to influence the decision, the most important task of the government responsible for the organization is the War Department, the most important role of the staff is Stimson . To achieve the target, Truman need to convince their governments in various military and political officials , and decide to throw the bomb at the end. |
第三語言摘要 | |
論文目次 |
第一章:緒論 …………………….…………………………………p1 第一節、研究動機、研究目的與主要論點 第二節、研究方法與架構 第三節、研究範圍、研究架構、研究限制與預期貢獻 第四節:小結 第二章:文獻回顧………………………………………………….p17 第一節、決策理論研究之批評與支持 第二節:與原子彈決策有關的研究 第三節、投降因素的日方觀點 第四節、官方文件及紀錄、戰史研究與輔助閱讀 第五節、小結 第三章:決策理論三模式與論文假設…………………………….p61 第一節、外交及軍事決策分析層次 第二節、決策理論與模式 第三節、研究架構與論文假設 第四節、小結 第四章:理性行為模式下使用原子彈之外交與戰略考量……...p117 第一節:杜魯門掌政前的二戰情勢:歐亞安全威脅 第二節、羅斯福的戰略遺產 第三節、杜魯門的政策選項 第四節、日本終於投降 第五節:小結 第五章:組織行為的成與敗:原子彈發展與作戰…………….. p185 第一節、原子彈外交:國務院VS戰爭部 第二節、原子彈競爭:陸航軍B-29VS海軍航空母艦 第三節、原子彈作戰:指揮體系與作戰計畫的多頭馬車 第四節、小結 第六章:政治過程:杜魯門總統的政治決定…………………..p249 第一節、杜魯門內閣的重要官員 第二節、杜魯門對軍文關係看法 第三節、杜魯門決定投擲原子彈 第四節、小結 第七章:結論………………………………………………………..p273 第一節、問題的再探討 第二節、決策理論的評估 第三節、假設的檢驗 第四節、研究發現 參考文獻……………………………………………………………..p286 表一:大事紀……………………………….……………………….. p15 表二:班德及哈蒙德的12個決策類型 ….……………………….. p84 |
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