本文主要探討東南亞伊斯蘭恐怖義的發展，並分析中組織對其的影響，如基地組織。

Terrorism in southeast Asia vis-a-vis the inference of the Middle Eastern elements like Wahhabism and Salafism.

Contents  III
Abstract 1
Chapter 1 Introduction 2
Significance of the study 3
Research questions 4
Table 1-1: Research questions 4
Literature Review 5
Current status of terrorism in Southeast Asia and the theory of SEA as a second front for terrorism  5
Measuring the present threat, assessing the future 11
Hypothesis 14
Methodology 15
Fig. 1-1: Research framework 17
Chapter 2 Expansion of Islam and the rise of terrorism in Southeast Asia ....................... 18
2.1 Historical background – arrival of Islam in Southeast Asia 18
Fig. 1-2: Map showing the spread of Islam in Asia during the Abbasid period. Note that sea-routes already included Southeast Asia, with the Malacca region being already a key choke point for traders. (source: asianhistory.about.com/od/Indonesia.htm) ................................ ................................ ..... 20
Fig 2-2: Map of Srivijaya Empire at its peak and main sea-trade routes (source: asianhistory.about.com/od/indonesia/ss/Srivijaya-Empire.htm) ....... 21
2.1.1 Patterns of islamization in Southeast Asia 22
Fig. 3-2: Sphere of influence of Sultanate of Malacca at its peak (Source: http://lostislamichistory.com/sultanate-of-malacca/) ................................ ..................... 25
Fig. 4-2: Aceh Sultanate (1496–1903) (Source: http://lostislamichistory.com/sultanate-of-malacca/) ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 26
Fig. 5-2: Spread of Islam and map of Sultanates in Southeast Asia by 1500 A.D. (Source: Yale University Press) ................................ ................................ ....................... 27
2.1.2 The arrival of European colonizers . 27
2.2 Effects of colonialism in Southeast Asia: The emergence of the first forms of organized insurgency30
2.3 Post-colonial era and the rise of the first militant groups. 33
Indonesia  33
Malaysia  45
Table 1-2: Outcome of the 2013 House of Representative Election in Malaysia. Islamist parties and PAS in particular showed a significant growth (Source:Election Commission of Malaysia)................................ ................................ ................... 53
Philippines ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................... 53
Thailand ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 56
2.4 The first Salafi-Jihadi groups and the shift from regional to transnational threat. . 57
2.4.1 The main drivers leading from local/parochial terrorism to transnational one ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 57
2.4.2 The shift from local to transnational terrorism in Southeast Asia 1990s-mid-2000s ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 59
2.4.3 The shift from local to transnational terrorism in Southeast Asia Mid-2000s-2013 ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 61
Fig 6-2: Timeline of the evolution of terrorism from local to transnational (Source: Author of the study) ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 63
Conclusion ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 63
Chapter 3 Current status of terrorism in Southeast Asia ................................ ..................... 66
3.1 A profile of the current status of terrorism in Southeast Asia ................................ .... 67
Indonesia ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................. 67
Table 1-3: 8 Vote shares of Indonesian Political Parties, 1999 — 2014 (Source: General Election Commission)................................ ................................ ......................... 68
Malaysia ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 73
Fig 2-3: Terrorist attack trends in Malaysia – 1970-2013 8 (Source: Global Terrorism Database 2014) ................................ ................................ .............................. 79
Philippines ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................... 79
Fig 3-3: Terrorist attack trends in the Philippines – 1970-2013 8 (Source: Global Terrorism Database 2014) ................................ ................................ ................ 86
Thailand ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 86
Fig 4-3: Terrorist attack trends in Malaysia – 1970-2013 8 (Source: Global Terrorism Database 2014) ................................ ................................ ................................ 90
Fig. 5-3: International image of the US . 2013 (Source: Global Image of the United States and China | Pew Research Center." Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project. Accessed June 9, 2015. http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/07/18/global-image-of-the-united-states-and-china/. ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 91
3.2 Conclusion ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 91
Fig 6-3: Answers of various Muslim communities around the world on some key questions on Islam and Islamization. (Source: The World’s Muslims: Religion, Politics and Society | Pew Research Center." Pew Research Center's Religion & Public Life Project. Source:http://www.pewforum.org/2013/04/30/the-worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-overview ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 95
Chapter 4 The current status of terrorism in SEA through a combination of variables ... 96
4.1 Explaining the Middle Eastern factor and its dynamics in the Southeast Asian region ................................ ................................ ................................ .......................... 96
Fig 1-4: Diagram summarizing the layers and elements of the Middle Eastern
Factor ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ . 100
Fig. 2-4. Diagram showing the elements of Salafi-Wahhabism and their dynamics on the sociopolitical ecosystem of Southeast Asian Muslim societies (Source: Author of the study) ................................ ................................ .......................... 100
4.1.1 Southeast Asia meets Salafi-Wahhabi Islamism ................................ ............... 101
4.1.2 Islamic State – Origins and evolution ................................ ................................ ........ 104
4.1.3 The arrival of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi ................................ ................................ ... 105
Fig. 3-4: Military and political organizational structure of Islamic State (Source: CNN through TRAC – Jan 2015). ................................ ................................ .................. 107
Fig 4-4: Map of IS-held territories and areas of influence in Africa and Middle East (Source:Dailymail.com) ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 108
4.1.4 Key differences between the IS and AQ ................................ ....................... 108
Table 1-4: Comparative table showing the key difference between Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State ................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 110
Fig. 5-4 – Infographic showing how the Islamic State is funded (Source: The Islamic State (IS) - How the World's Richest Terrorist Organization Funds Its Operations." Thomson Reuters Risk Management Solutions. Accessed June 19, 2015. https://risk.thomsonreuters.com/infographic/islamic-state-how-worlds-richest-terrorist-organization-funds-its-operations.) ................................ ................................ ....................... 113
4.2 Analysis of the variables ................................ ................................ ................................ 113
Table 2-4: Evaluative table showing the list of variables affecting the escalatory risk of terrorism in the region and related trends (See Appendix I for the complete table including the short analysis of each single variable) (Source: Author of the study) ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 116
4.3 Conclusion - Escalating threat with marked transnational characteristics and the Middle Eastern factor as a powerful catalyzer. ................................ ........... 117
Fig. 6-4: Dynamics of extremization in SEA (Source: Author of the study) ............ 121
Chapter 5 Short-term scenarios ................................ ................................ ............................. 122
5.1 Two scenarios, different outcomes. ................................ ................................ ............ 123
Scenario 1 – Implications of IS gaining power in Middle East ................................ ...... 123
Scenario 2 – Implications of IS losing ground in the Middle East ................................ 128
5.2 Ways forward ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 132 Fig 1-5: Respondent answer to the question “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the U.S.?” (Source: Opinion of the United States - Indicators Database | Pew Research Center." Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project. http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/1/country/217/. .................... 141
Chapter 6 Conclusion ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 145
Appendix I ................................ ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 152
Terminology ................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 165
Bibliography................................ ................................ ................................ ............................... 167

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