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系統識別號 U0002-1606201414025000
中文論文名稱 跨太平洋夥伴關係(TPP)對中國的貿易影響: 一個模擬分析
英文論文名稱 The Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on the Trade of China ─ a Simulation Analysis
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 102
學期 2
出版年 103
研究生中文姓名 邰孟儒
研究生英文姓名 Manuel Ignacio Tefel Cuadra
電子信箱 tefelmanuel@gmail.com
學號 601330292
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2014-06-14
論文頁數 94頁
口試委員 指導教授-柯大衛
委員-陳思寬
委員-萬哲鈺
中文關鍵字 跨太平洋夥伴關係  中國的貿易  模擬分析 
英文關鍵字 TPP  China Trade  Simulation Model 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學政治學
學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 就跨國界商品自由化、超越WTO規範的服務交流,以及強調各種包含條例和邊界控制的議題而言,跨太平洋的貿易合作關係是一項首創的手段。許多環太平洋國家皆為談判成員。讓人值得注意的一點是中國並非其中之一。這篇論文是一項評估,使用數字控制的模擬,探討在跨太平洋貿易中可能造成中國在貿易上產生某些潛在的影響。最開始設定三個單純國家的模型包含中國、美國以及日本。這項相當簡易的模型已縮減到最基本的出口成長和鎖定在非關稅障礙的收入成長之間。一旦這模型被校准,結果合理,兩個以上的群組被含入現在所謂的完全膨脹模型像是中國、美國、日本、跨太平洋貿易-5以及ROW。跨太平洋貿易-5是由澳洲、加拿大、馬來西亞、墨西哥以及新加坡組成。這五個國家對中國貿易有著百分之八十的責任在,在減少從美國、日本、ROW,或是其他國家的總額後,他們仍有百分之二十的責任在。運作模型後的結果呈現一致。從最合理的方案中所觀察到的傾向是跨太平洋合作貿易成員將會對中國有利,以及ROW將會遭受到些微的損害。儘管研究結果指出,中國在進口的相對花費提高如同從對削減跨太平洋貿易國家的非關稅障礙的逆作用,跨太平洋貿易成員將會感到這個反作用。中國在世界經濟中扮演著重要的角色;因此,跨太平洋合作貿易協商者無法在沒有預期分享負面影響下將中國邊緣化。這三個國家的模型指出日本將會比美國有好的成長;然而,完全擴張的模型表現出跨太平洋-5 為最大贏家。我們將此歸因於包含墨西哥和加拿大這兩個國家和美國(NAFTA)已經參與FTA;因此,跨太平洋合作貿易將會在其中更加促進彼此的貿易。
英文摘要 The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a pioneering instrument regarding cross border liberalization of goods and service flows that transcends WTO disciplines and addresses many issues including regulation and border controls. Many pacific countries are negotiating members. The fact that China is not a member is noteworthy. This thesis paper is an assessment of the potential effects TPP may cause on the trade of China using numerical simulation. Initially a simple three country model including China, USA and Japan was designed. This very simple model cuts down to the very basic simultaneous causality between growth in exports and growth of income focusing on a reduction in non-tariff barriers. Once the model was calibrated and results were reasonable, two more groupings were included into what is now called the fully expanded model including China, USA, Japan, TPP-5 and ROW. TPP-5 is composed by Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico and Singapore which together account for 80% of the trade with China after deducting the amount from USA and Japan while ROW, or rest of world, accounts for the remaining 20%. The results from running both models are congruent. The tendency observed from the most reasonable scenario is that TPP members will benefit modestly and China and ROW will suffer slight detriment. Notwithstanding, the findings indicate that as China’s relative cost of import raises as an inverse effect from a reduction of non-tariff barriers for TPP countries, TPP members will also feel the adverse effect. China plays a significant role in the world economy and consequently TPP negotiators cannot marginalize China without expecting to share in on the negative effects this will have. The three country model indicated that Japan would see better growth than USA, while the fully expanded model portrayed TPP-5 as the biggest winner. We attribute this to the inclusion of Mexico and Canada whom have already entered into a FTA with USA (NAFTA) and therefore TPP would further facilitate trade amongst them.
論文目次 Chapter I: Introduction. ......................................................................................... 1
Background. ........................................................................................................ 1
Research Goals. .................................................................................................. 9
Research Motivation. ........................................................................................ 11
Summary of Results .......................................................................................... 13
Chapter II: Literary Review ................................................................................... 16
(Li and Whalley 2012) ....................................................................................... 16
(Petri et al 2011) ............................................................................................... 18
(Petri et al 2012) ............................................................................................... 19
(Itakura & Lee 2012) ......................................................................................... 25
(Development Research Center of the State Council and The World Bank) ...... 26
(Song & Yuan 2012) .......................................................................................... 28
(Backer 2013) .................................................................................................... 29
Chapter III: Theoretical Considerations ................................................................ 30
Brief Introduction ............................................................................................. 30
A Simple Three Country Simultaneous Model of Trade..................................... 32
Chapter IV: Implementation and Findings ............................................................ 44
Chapter V: Conclusions ........................................................................................ 64
Annexes. .............................................................................................................. 80
References ........................................................................................................ 80
Tables and Charts ............................................................................................. 84
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