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系統識別號 U0002-1512200716390500
中文論文名稱 外匯市場價格發現、波動與中央銀行干預之分析
英文論文名稱 Price discovery, volatility and central bank interventions in the foreign exchange markets
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 96
學期 1
出版年 97
研究生中文姓名 高崇瑋
研究生英文姓名 Chung-Wei Kao
學號 893490010
學位類別 博士
語文別 英文
第二語文別 中文
口試日期 2007-12-12
論文頁數 85頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳思寬
指導教授-陳玉瓏
委員-曹添旺
委員-邱俊榮
委員-陳思寬
委員-邱忠榮
委員-莊武仁
中文關鍵字 匯率  門檻共整  不對稱調整  價格發現  多變量GARCH  跳躍  央行干預 
英文關鍵字 Exchange rate  Threshold cointegration  Asymmetric adjustment  Price discovery  Multivariate GARCH  Jump  Central bank intervention 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學商學
中文摘要 本論文研究外匯市場中三項重要的議題:價格發現、匯率的波動、與中央銀行干預效果之研究。本論文以門檻共整模型分析新台幣外匯市場中,誤差修正過程的不對稱調整特性;並以具有跳躍(jump)型式的GARCH模型分析歐元匯率在不同流通階段波動性的變化,以及日本央行藉由外匯市場干預行動對日圓匯價與波動性造成的影響效果。本論文重要發現如下:
1、新台幣匯率的調整具有非線性特性。台北外匯市場與元太外匯市場的價格具有長期共整關係,然此關係具有門檻效果:唯有當兩市場價差超過上、下門檻值時,兩市場價格才具有互動關係。並且當元太市場價格大於台北市場價格,且價差已超越門檻值後,元太市場價格的弱外生性顯示元太市場具有價格發現功能,台北市場將追隨元太市場的價格動態而進行誤差調整。
2、 歐元匯率的波動性在本文研究期間大於比較樣本—英鎊的波動性,顯示歐元資產的投資風險仍大於英鎊資產。然分期間研究結果顯示,兩者波動性的差距已有縮小跡象。代表當歐元流通區域擴大及與其他經濟體關係日益密切等因素下,已有助於實體歐元流通之後的穩定性。
3、中央銀行干預的型態會影響干預效果。小量干預不具成效,大量干預可影響匯率走勢並降低市場波動。在大量干預時期,日銀成功透過干預行動降低市場跳動次數,故連帶降低市場因日圓升值帶來的擾動現象。此結果符合Taylor (2004)、Reitz & Taylor (2006)提出之coordination channel:央行干預行動可提振基本面交易者的交易信心,使匯率重回基本面,而市場重歸平靜。
英文摘要 Three topics in exchange rate economics are discussed in this thesis: the price discovery in foreign exchange markets, volatility and the effects of central bank interventions. A threshold cointegration model proposed by Tsay (1998) is used to analysis the asymmetric adjustment process responding to the disequilibrium between two market places in Taiwan’s foreign exchange trading. A GARCH mixed with jump model proposed by Chan and Maheu (2002) is applied to detect the volatility changes of a new currency – the euro, and to evaluate the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention conducting by the Japanese authorities. Major conclusions are as follows.
1.Results from the multivariate threshold model indicate prices in the two markets in Taiwan’s foreign exchange trading are integrated nonlinearly. The roles of price discovery are asymmetric, depending on the size and sign of the price discrepancies between the two markets. In the lower regime of discrepancies, each market employs information from its counterpart and reacts to each other with different adjustment speeds. When the discrepancy is in the upper regime, Cosmos Foreign Exchange’s role of price discovery is characterized by its exogenous behavior within the error-correction process.
2.By using a GARCH mixed with jump model (the GARJI model), the volatilities of euro are found to be larger than that of the pound, which is robust to either of the two data-splitting schemes. However, the stability of the euro has made progress in recent years when the physical euro launched in circulating. The evidence is provided by the decreases in the jump innovations. This finding supports the arguments on the determinants of exchange rate stability claimed by Mundell (1998) and Mussa (2000).
3.The empirical results show ‘large-in-size’ interventions adopted by Bank of Japan in the last decade were effective both in altering the exchange rate level and reducing the volatility of Yen. Jump events that tended to drive yen’s appreciations and volatility increases have been effectively reduced, which are in compliance with the coordination channel that explains the effectiveness in intervention proposed by Taylor (2004) and Reitz and Taylor (2006).
論文目次 Contents
Acknowledgement I
Abstract in Chinese II
Abstract in English III
Contents IV
Contents of figures V
Contents of tables VI

Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1. Overview of the exchange rate economics 1
2. Price discovery in Taiwan’s foreign exchange market 2
3. The volatility of the Euro 4
4. Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market 6

Chapter 2 Price discovery in Taiwan’s foreign exchange market 9
1. Price discovery and microstructure analysis 9
2. Introduction of Taiwan’s foreign exchange market 10
3. The econometric model 12
4. Data and empirical results 17
5. Impulse Response Functions 24
6. Conclusions 26

Chapter 3 An investigation on the volatility dynamics of the euro 33
1. An open question on the volatility of the euro 33
2. Methodology and model 36
3. Empirical Results 41
4. Conclusions 50

Chapter 4 Effects of Japanese intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility 57
1. Controversies on the foreign exchange market intervention 57
2. Methodology and model 61
3. Data and the Results 65
4. Conclusions 70

References 75
Contents of figures

Figure 2-1 Price discrepancies between CFE and TFI 28
Figure 2-2 Responses to TFI shocks 28
Figure 2-3 Responses to CFE shocks 29
Figure 2-4 Equilibrating responses in price 29
Figure 3-1 The exchange rates of Euro and British Pound 53
Figure 4-1 Yen/dollar exchange rate and the interventions from BOJ and Fed 72
Contents of tables

Table 2-1 Unit root tests 30
Table 2-2 Cointegration tests 30
Table 2-3 Results of the nonlinearity test 31
Table 2-4 Selection of delay, threshold, and the number of regimes 31
Table 2-5 Least squares estimates and their ratios for different regimes 32
Table 3-1 The statistical properties of daily exchange rate returns 54
Table 3-2 Test results for structural change 54
Table 3-3 Estimates by the division of virtual / physical period 55
Table 3-4 Estimates by the division of depreciation / appreciation period 56
Table 4-1 Estimation results of the first half 73
Table 4-2 Estimation results of the second half 74
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