本研究透過模糊理論整合貝氏認知網路建置風險評估模型進行風險評估。將所要推估之風險事件的觀察值運用模糊理論進行處理及量化成一個模糊數，並設置模糊規則表以建立貝氏認知網路中所需之條件機率表。根據此方法，可輕易地建置基於貝氏認知網路的風險評估模型。為了驗證本研究所提出之模型的可行性，本研究建立飛航風險評估模型，並透過數個實際案例進行評估。

This study integrates fuzzy theory and Bayesian belief network (BBN) to create a risk assessment model. The observed value in an event is defined as a Fuzzy number. Rule tables are conducted to create conditional probability tables in a BBN model. According to the proposed methodology, the risk assessment model based on BBN can be developed easily. To verify the feasibility of our proposed model, a flight risk assessment model has been created, and several practical cases have been evaluated.

目錄
第一章  緒論.........................1
  1.1  研究背景與動機.................1
  1.2  研究目的......................3
  1.3  研究架構與流程.................3
第二章  文獻探討......................5
  2.1  貝氏認知網路風險評估............5
  2.2  模糊貝氏認知網路...............11
第三章  建構風險評估模型...............14
  3.1  風險評估模型建構...............14
  3.2  參數設定.....................17
    3.2.1  非父節點參數設置...........17
    3.2.2  父節點參數設置............19
  3.3  推論流程.....................22
第四章  案例實作.....................23
  4.1  模型建構與推論................24
  4.2  系統效能分析..................29
    4.2.1  航班最終風險值分析.........30
    4.2.2  航班最終風險值敏感度分析....32
第五章  結論與建議....................34
參考文獻............................35
附錄A..............................39

圖目錄
圖2-1 A節點為B節點之影響因子	.....................7
圖2-2供電風險分析的貝氏認知網路示例圖...............8
圖2-3供電風險分析的貝氏認知網路推論結果示例圖........9
圖3-1分層狀態評估模型架構........................15
圖3-2本研究運用模糊理論結合貝氏認知網路之模型架構....16
圖3-3歸屬函數設置..............................17
圖3-4模型範例示意圖............................19
圖3-5父節點Fatigue Failure歸屬函數設置..........20
圖4-1 FORAS風險因素樹狀架構.....................24
圖4-2飛航安全風險評估網路圖......................26
圖4-3父節點S9之歸屬函數.........................27
圖4-4父節點S9之條件機率表.......................28
圖4-5航班T之最終風險程度分配.....................29
圖4-6最終風險節點之權重分配......................29

表目錄
表1-1常見風險評估方法優缺點...........................2
表2-1貝氏認知網路應用於風險評估之研究文獻...............6
表2-2條件機率表設置之相關文獻........................10
表2-3模糊理論結合貝氏認知網路應用於風險評估之研究文獻.....13
表3-1非父節點之條件機率表設置，以節點C4為例。...........16
表3-2非父節點之條件機率表設置，以節點C5為例。...........16
表3-3父節點之條件機率表設置，以節點C2為例。.............17
表3-4模型範例節點說明...............................19
表3-5 Fatigue Failure之模糊規則表..................20
表3-6父節點之條件機率表設置，以Fatigue Failure為例。...21
表4-1父節點S9之模糊規則表...........................27
表4-2三筆測試資料之差異.............................28
表4-3三筆測試資料風險值結果比較.......................28
表4-4兩模型30筆實際航班測試結果.......................31
表4-5調整非父節點TC27_C後之風險值分析..................33
表A-1 本研究之模型節點說明............................39

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