淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)
進階搜尋


下載電子全文限經由淡江IP使用) 
系統識別號 U0002-1507201310072700
中文論文名稱 以模糊理論建置貝氏認知網路風險評估模型
英文論文名稱 Using Fuzzy Theory to create Bayesian belief network for risk assessment
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 資訊管理學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Information Management
學年度 101
學期 2
出版年 102
研究生中文姓名 許安琪
研究生英文姓名 An-Chi Hsu
學號 600631021
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2013-06-22
論文頁數 40頁
口試委員 指導教授-徐煥智
委員-翁頌舜
委員-詹前隆
委員-廖賀田
中文關鍵字 風險評估  模糊理論  貝氏認知網路 
英文關鍵字 Risk Assessment  Fuzzy Theory  Bayesian belief network 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究透過模糊理論整合貝氏認知網路建置風險評估模型進行風險評估。將所要推估之風險事件的觀察值運用模糊理論進行處理及量化成一個模糊數,並設置模糊規則表以建立貝氏認知網路中所需之條件機率表。根據此方法,可輕易地建置基於貝氏認知網路的風險評估模型。為了驗證本研究所提出之模型的可行性,本研究建立飛航風險評估模型,並透過數個實際案例進行評估。
英文摘要 This study integrates fuzzy theory and Bayesian belief network (BBN) to create a risk assessment model. The observed value in an event is defined as a Fuzzy number. Rule tables are conducted to create conditional probability tables in a BBN model. According to the proposed methodology, the risk assessment model based on BBN can be developed easily. To verify the feasibility of our proposed model, a flight risk assessment model has been created, and several practical cases have been evaluated.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論.........................1
1.1 研究背景與動機.................1
1.2 研究目的......................3
1.3 研究架構與流程.................3
第二章 文獻探討......................5
2.1 貝氏認知網路風險評估............5
2.2 模糊貝氏認知網路...............11
第三章 建構風險評估模型...............14
3.1 風險評估模型建構...............14
3.2 參數設定.....................17
3.2.1 非父節點參數設置...........17
3.2.2 父節點參數設置............19
3.3 推論流程.....................22
第四章 案例實作.....................23
4.1 模型建構與推論................24
4.2 系統效能分析..................29
4.2.1 航班最終風險值分析.........30
4.2.2 航班最終風險值敏感度分析....32
第五章 結論與建議....................34
參考文獻............................35
附錄A..............................39

圖目錄
圖2-1 A節點為B節點之影響因子 .....................7
圖2-2供電風險分析的貝氏認知網路示例圖...............8
圖2-3供電風險分析的貝氏認知網路推論結果示例圖........9
圖3-1分層狀態評估模型架構........................15
圖3-2本研究運用模糊理論結合貝氏認知網路之模型架構....16
圖3-3歸屬函數設置..............................17
圖3-4模型範例示意圖............................19
圖3-5父節點Fatigue Failure歸屬函數設置..........20
圖4-1 FORAS風險因素樹狀架構.....................24
圖4-2飛航安全風險評估網路圖......................26
圖4-3父節點S9之歸屬函數.........................27
圖4-4父節點S9之條件機率表.......................28
圖4-5航班T之最終風險程度分配.....................29
圖4-6最終風險節點之權重分配......................29

表目錄
表1-1常見風險評估方法優缺點...........................2
表2-1貝氏認知網路應用於風險評估之研究文獻...............6
表2-2條件機率表設置之相關文獻........................10
表2-3模糊理論結合貝氏認知網路應用於風險評估之研究文獻.....13
表3-1非父節點之條件機率表設置,以節點C4為例。...........16
表3-2非父節點之條件機率表設置,以節點C5為例。...........16
表3-3父節點之條件機率表設置,以節點C2為例。.............17
表3-4模型範例節點說明...............................19
表3-5 Fatigue Failure之模糊規則表..................20
表3-6父節點之條件機率表設置,以Fatigue Failure為例。...21
表4-1父節點S9之模糊規則表...........................27
表4-2三筆測試資料之差異.............................28
表4-3三筆測試資料風險值結果比較.......................28
表4-4兩模型30筆實際航班測試結果.......................31
表4-5調整非父節點TC27_C後之風險值分析..................33
表A-1 本研究之模型節點說明............................39
參考文獻 [1] 翁順泰、林怡姍,〈考量人為因素之貝葉氏網路風險評估模型之建構-以連續模糊集合為基礎〉,台灣海事安全與保安研究學刊雙月刊,第三卷.第三期:19~36頁,2012。
[2] 葉鎰維,《基於雲端運算的飛航作業風險評估架構》,碩士論文,淡江大學資訊管理學系,2012。
[3] 鄭燦堂,《風險管理-理論與實務》,第二版,台北:五南圖書出版股份有限公司,2007。
[4] 黃永福,《以模糊專家系統實作軟體專案調適準則》,碩士論文,國立中央大學資訊管理研究所,2007。
[5] 劉豐瑞、吳冠翰、林敬堂、梁嘉峻、彭柏,〈貝氏信賴網路應用於河溪生態風險評估〉,2012年兩岸環境與能源研討會暨第一屆全球華人環境與能源研討會,頁 2-140-2-153,2012。
[6] Aspinall, W. P., G. Woo, B. Voight, and P. J. Baxter., "Evidence-Based Volcanology: Application to Eruption Crises," Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (128:1-3), pp. 273-285, 2003.
[7] Balaram Das., "Generating Conditional Probabilities for Bayesian Networks," Computing Research Repository, 2004.
[8] Booker, J. M., and M. A. Meyer., "Uncertainty Quantification: Methods and Examples from Probability and Fuzzy Theories," Automation Congress, 2002 Proceedings of the 5th Biannual World, pp. 135-140, 2002.
[9] Borsuk, M. E., C. A. Stow, and K. H. Reckhow., "A Bayesian Network of Eutrophication Models for Synthesis, Prediction, and Uncertainty Analysis," Ecological Modelling (173:2–3), 4/1, pp. 219-239, 2004.
[10] Boudali, H., and J. B. Dugan., "A Discrete-Time Bayesian Network Reliability Modeling and Analysis Framework," Reliability Engineering & System Safety (87:3), 3, pp. 337-349, 2005.
[11] Brooker, P., "Experts, Bayesian Belief Networks, Rare Events and Aviation Risk Estimates," Safety Science (49:8–9), 10, pp. 1142-1155, 2011.
[12] Chai, H., and B. Wang ., "A Hierarchical Situation Assessment Model Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence , pp. 444-454, 2011.
[13] Chin, K., D. Tang, J. Yang, S. Y. Wong, and H. Wang., "Assessing New Product Development Project Risk by Bayesian Network with a Systematic Probability Generation Methodology," Expert Systems with Applications (36:6), 8, pp. 9879-9890, 2009.
[14] Clifton A. Ericson., Hazard Analysis Techniques for System Safety, John Wiley & Sons, 2005.
[15] Dodagoudar, G. R., and G. Venkatachalam., "Reliability Analysis of Slopes using Fuzzy Sets Theory," Computers and Geotechnics (27:2), 9, pp. 101-115, 2000.
[16] Fenton, N., and M. Neil., "Making Decisions: Using Bayesian Nets and MCDA," Knowledge-Based Systems (14:7), 11/1, pp. 307-325, 2001.
[17] Gulvanessian, H., and M. Holicky., "Determination of Actions due to Fire: Recent Developments in Bayesian Risk Assessment of Structures Under Fire," Progress in Structural Engineering and Materials (3:4), pp. 346-352, 2001.
[18] Ha, J. S., and P. H. Seong., "A Method for Risk-Informed Safety Significance Categorization using the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Bayesian Belief Networks," Reliability Engineering & System Safety (83:1), 1, pp. 1-15, 2004.
[19] Hoffman, M. E., L. M. Manevitz, and E. K. Wong., "Fuzzy Independence and Extended Conditional Probability," Information Sciences (90:1–4), 4, pp. 137-156, 1996.
[20] Intan, R., and O. Y. Yuliana., "Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Network for Analyzing Medical Track Record," Journal of Advances in Intelligent Information and Database Systems, Studies in Computational Intelligence, pp. 279-290, 2011.
[21] Jensen, F. V., An Introduction to Bayesian Networks, Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, USA., 1996.
[22] Judea Pearl., Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK., 2000.
[23] Kim, J. H., and J. Pearl., "A Computational Model for Causal and Diagnostic Reasoning in Inference Systems," Proceedings of the Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 380–385, 1983.
[24] Kwai-Sang, C., T. Da-Wei, Y. Jian-Bo, W. Shui Yee, and W. Hongwei., "Assessing New Product Development Project Risk by Bayesian Network with a Systematic Probability Generation Methodology," Expert Syst. Appl. (36:6), pp. 9879-9890, 2009.
[25] Li, P., G. Chen, L. Dai, and L. Zhang., "A Fuzzy Bayesian Network Approach to Improve the Quantification of Organizational Influences in HRA Frameworks," Safety Science (50:7), 8, pp. 1569-1583, 2012.
[26] Luxhoej, J. T., and D. W. Coit., "Modeling Low probability/high Consequence Events: An Aviation Safety Risk Model," Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 2006 RAMS '06. Annual, pp. 215-221, 2006.
[27] Michael, H., Osborne, D.M., Ross, D., Boyd, D., and Brown, B.G., "The Flight Operations Risk Assessment System", Proceedings of the SAE Advances Safety Conference, Society of Automotive Engineers, Jan. 1999.
[28] Peter Cheeseman., "A Method of Computing Generalized Bayesian Probability Values for Expert Systems," Proceedings of the Eighth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 198-202, 1983.
[29] Pollino, C. A., O. Woodberry, A. Nicholson, K. Korb, and B. T. Hart., "Parameterisation and Evaluation of a Bayesian Network for use in an Ecological Risk Assessment," Environmental Modelling & Software (22:8), 8, pp. 1140-1152, 2007.
[30] Ren, J., I. Jenkinson, J. Wang, D. L. Xu, and J. B. Yang., "An Offshore Risk Analysis Method using Fuzzy Bayesian Network," Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering (131:4), pp. 41101–41112, 2009.
[31] Schwartz, D., "Flight Operations Risk Assessment System (FORAS): A Metric-Based Approach to Flight Operations Risk management", International Air Safety Seminar, Flight Safety Foundation, 1998.
[32] Starr, C., and P. Shi., An Introduction to Bayesian Belief Networks and their Applications to Land Operations, DSTO Systems Sciences Laboratory, Australia, 2004.
[33] Trucco, P., E. Cagno, F. Ruggeri, and O. Grande., "A Bayesian Belief Network Modelling of Organisational Factors in Risk Analysis: A Case Study in Maritime Transportation," Reliability Engineering & System Safety (93:6), 6, pp. 845-856, 2008.
[34] Zadeh, L., "Fuzzy Sets," Infortation and Control, pp. 338-353, 1965.
論文使用權限
  • 同意紙本無償授權給館內讀者為學術之目的重製使用,於2013-07-17公開。
  • 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2013-07-17起公開。


  • 若您有任何疑問,請與我們聯絡!
    圖書館: 請來電 (02)2621-5656 轉 2281 或 來信