一國制度面的因素是否會影響金融自由化政策對經濟成長的效果，在理論或實證的文獻上一直沒有比較深入的探討。為探討此一主題，本文以88個國家作為實證樣本，並將其進一步分為21個已開發及68個開發中國家，分別探討制度、金融自由化與經濟成長之間的關係。本研究所使用的金融自由化指標為依據Bekaert et al.(2005)所發展資本市場開放時間所構建的虛擬變數，而資料研究期間為1980年至2004年。我們利用差異中之差異法（difference-in-difference, DID）及自我迴歸遞延分配模型（autoregressive distributed lag model, ARDL）模型來進行估計，而主要的研究成果如下:

1.金融自由化對開發中國家的經濟成長有正面的影響，但對已開發國家則無明顯的效果。

2.加入制度面因素後，發現對開發中國家而言，金融自由化對經濟增長率有強化的效果，其中以法治面
的制度因素對經濟成長率增長效果最強。

3.金融自由化與各項制度指標交叉項的實證結果顯示，制度總合指標及法治面指標與金融自由化指標間
是有交互影響，即整體制度越完善，法治越健全的開發中國家，金融自由化對其經濟增長的效果越強。

4.探討金融自由化及制度面指標的經濟成長的長短期影響，估計結果為金融自由化指標與法律與秩序指
標對成長率有短期影響效果。

The role of institutional factors played in the liberalization-growth nexus has been rarely investigated in the past theoretical or empirical studies. With this concern, this thesis uses a sample of 88 countries, with 21 developed and 67 developing countries, over the 1980 -2004 period to investigate the relationship between financial liberalization and institutional factors and their effects on economic growth. We apply the difference-in-difference (DID) model and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to the data. The main finding of this research are as followers:

1.Financial liberalization has a positive influence on economic growth in developing countries but no such positive effect has been found in developed countries.

2.The growth effect of financial liberalization in developing countries seems to be enhanced after controlling for institutional quality

3.The empirical evidence from the estimates for interaction term of institutional factors and financial liberalization index shows that those developing countries with higher institutional quality will have higher growth rate after adopting a more open financial liberalization policy.

4.Financial liberalization, with additional consideration of institutional factors, seems to exert only short-run effect on economic growth.

目錄

第一章 緒論	1
第一節 研究動機	1
第二節 研究架構	3

第二章 文獻回顧	6
第一節 資本開放對經濟成長影響相關文獻	6
第二節 制度面指標對經濟成長影響相關文獻	10

第三章 研究方法	14
第一節 差異中之差異法（difference-in-difference, DID）	14
第二節 自我迴歸分配遞延模型(autoregressive distributed lag 
      model, ARDL)	16

第四章 資料來源與變數說明	17
第一節  資料來源與研究範圍	17
第二節  變數說明	22
第三節  敘述統計	28

第五章 實證結果與分析	30
第一節 靜態縱橫資料估計結果	30
第二節 動態模型估計結果	37
第三節 自我迴歸分配遞延模型的估計結果	41
第四節 摘要總結	51

第六章 結論	53
第一節 結論	53
第二節 政策建議	55

參考文獻	56



圖表目錄

圖 1 1論文研究架構	5
表 4 1總樣本國家(共88個)	18
表 4 2變數說明及資料來源	26
表 4 3敘述統計量	29
表 5 1樣本限制下金融自由化對經濟成長率估計結果	34
表 5 2金融自由化與各制度指標估計結果	35
表 5 3金融自由化與各制度指標交叉項估計結果	36
表 5 4金融自由化與國際清廉指標動態估計結果	39
表 5 5金融自由化與國際清廉指標交叉項動態估計結果	40
表 5 6金融自由化自我迴歸分佈滯後模型估計結果	43
表 5 7金融自由化自我迴歸分佈滯後模型估計結果	45
表 5 8金融自由化自我迴歸分佈滯後模型估計結果	47
表 5 9金融自由化自我迴歸分佈滯後模型估計結果	49

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