淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)
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系統識別號 U0002-1502201920274700
中文論文名稱 小布希政府出兵伊拉克之決策研究:新古典現實主義的理論觀點
英文論文名稱 The Decision-making of George W. Bush Administration’s Using Forces against Iraq in 2003: A Neoclassical Realism’s Perspective
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 107
學期 1
出版年 108
研究生中文姓名 余瓊瑤
研究生英文姓名 Chiung-Yao Yu
學號 803330025
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2019-01-07
論文頁數 202頁
口試委員 指導教授-莫大華
委員-陳一新
委員-張延廷
委員-李亞明
委員-黃介正
中文關鍵字 伊拉克戰爭;海珊政權;小布希總統 
英文關鍵字 Iraq war in 2003  Saddam Hussain Regime  George W. Bush 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文旨在探究小布希政府為何在2003年出兵伊拉克?美國是否企圖以「政權更迭」政策推翻海珊政權達成反恐戰爭的階段性目標及重整中東秩序的大戰略、或是小布希想利用美國在中東地區的軍事勝利推高他的政治聲望取得個人的政治利益?本文以新古典現實主義的觀點作為研究途徑,並以文獻分析法對本案進行研究。本文以國際體系、國家與決策者三個層面對出兵決策進行分析。
本文從地緣戰略觀點看美國出兵伊拉克政策,回顧美國的伊拉克政策以及對伊拉克三種政策選項的利弊。小布希政府認為美國負擔得起這場戰爭、出兵伊拉克的風險不大、海珊又是殘民以逞的獨夫,企圖發展大規模殺傷性武器並可能與恐怖組織勾連,美國在九一一恐怖攻擊之後,為了維護美國人民的安全、型塑中東秩序,於是決定推翻海珊政權。
本文其次從國內政治操作的角度探討小布希政府出兵前的作為。在威脅評估過程中,中情局誤判海珊政權的威脅,在國防部的主導下美國對伊拉克採取遏制政策,國務院也配合政府政策透過外交手段說服各國支持聯合國的武器檢查,企圖以此迫使海珊就範。當國內外輿論抗議美國計畫出兵伊拉克的情況下,美國白宮成立「伊拉克小組」主導輿論宣傳、建立共識。美國政府在國內利益團體的影響下,積極說服國會,美國國會授權行政部門對伊拉克採取必要措施,維護美國安全。在整個出兵決策過程中,副總統辦公室與國防部主導決策的發展。
本文從決策者的層次探討出兵的原因,除探究小布希的個人特質與領導風格之外,也探究國安團隊對總統出兵政策的影響,以了解決策人士在決策過程中扮演的角色。在國安團隊中,副總統錢尼主導出兵政策讓軍事選項取得上風、國安顧問萊斯未平衡政府不同政策部門的發聲管道以致政策導向出兵的方向,而主張走聯合國外交路線的國務卿鮑爾則被邊緣化。學界認為新保守主義派人士對小布希總統的出兵影響最大,但是實際上小布希總統還是根據自己的判斷,在國內政治因素考量下決定出兵。
本文歸納的結論是,美國出兵伊拉克的政策是一系列因素相互影響下的決定。導致出兵決策的主因是九一一恐攻事件、官僚強化小布希的政策偏好、國內政治環境允許小布希總統採取過度反應的行動。次要原因包括:情報失敗、新保守主義份子的推波助瀾。在單極體系缺乏國際制衡力量,小布希的主觀意見認定伊拉克是惡棍國家,推翻海珊政權對中東地緣戰略會有正向的骨牌效應。美國可藉由支持伊拉克新政府,戰略上可拔掉心頭之患並加強美國在中東的影響力。本文結論是小布希總統應對出兵負最大責任,因為國安策士只負建議之責,最終決定權還在小布希總統手中。
英文摘要 The dissertation is to answer a question whether President George W. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was to assert American’s hegemonic power and reshape the political order of the Middle East or to continue the momentum of War on Terror and to reap political gains for Bush’s 2004 presidential reelection. The dissertation is divided into three parts, namely reviewing the issues through perspectives of geo-strategy, bureaucratic politics, and Bush’s presidency to identify reasons behind the U.S. regime change policy. Special emphases are placed on factors triggering the change of Bush administration’s Iraq policy—whether it was because of the 9/11 terrorist attack, whether it was under the influence of Vice President Dick Cheney and the Neo-conservativism advocates, or whether toppling Saddam Hussain was an overdue policy waiting for a determined leader to finish the job?

From a geo-strategic point of view, the Bush administration weighted in the pros and cons of its options to curb Saddam Hussain’s ambition and neutralize the potential threats posed by Iraqi WMD programs. The Bush administration believed it could afford the war, and the risk of the military action against Iraq was relatively low. Saddam Hussain’s atrocity records, his ambition on pursuing NBC programs, and Iraq’s alleged connection with the Al Qaeda became the pretexts for U.S. invasion.

From a domestic politics perspective, the Bush administration exerted concerted efforts to build consensus among executive departments, societal elites, and the general publics on the regime change policy. By managing public opinions and garner support from the Congress, the Bush administration successfully persuade the Americans to believe war against Iraq a necessary mission. In addressing the domestic and international protests against the US-planned War in Iraq, the Bush administration built its case for regime change on the ground of national security and to protect Americans’ way of life.

From decision-makers’ perspective, the dissertation reviewed the personal traits of George W. Bush, his leadership, and the influence of Bush’s national security team. The Neo-conservative politicians, who facilitated the decision-making process, played a supportive role on the decision, while President Bush was the actual decision-maker. Taking military action against Iraq served not only as a tool to reshape political order in the Middle East and dissolve a potential threat for the United States, it also served a domestic political purpose—to create momentum for President Bush’s reelection in 2004.

The dissertation concludes that the decision to use forces against Iraq was derived from a series of interconnected factors, primarily the 9/11 terrorist attacks, President Bush’s preferred policy enhanced by senior bureaucrats, and a tolerant political environment that make the decision possible. In a Uni-polar international environment, there was little check on U.S. unilateral action, especially when the U.S. endeavor was in the name of promoting democracy and freedom. Although the Bush administration intended to be a benign hegemonic power, President Bush’s decision to invade Iraq jeopardized his good-will intension, leaving the Middle East an unsettled place for years to come.

論文目次 論文目錄

第一章 緒論..1
壹、研究背景與動機..1
貳、研究目的與問題..3
參、研究範圍與限制..4
肆、文獻回顧..7
伍、研究途徑、方法與架構..22
第二章 理論與假設..29
第一節 新古典現實主義的理論觀點..29
第二節 命題假設..39
小結..40
第三章 從地緣戰略的觀點看美國出兵伊拉克的政策..41
第一節 小布希政府的中東政策..41
第二節 從地緣戰略觀點檢討出兵的政策..55
第三節 伊拉克對美國威脅的反應..65
第四節 外部因素..69
小結..76
第四章 小布希政府的國內政治操作..79
第一節 政府部門的動員..79
第二節 國內政治運作..98
第三節 利益團體與國會的影響..111
小結..122
第五章 小布希領導風格的與國安團隊..125
第一節 小布希的個人特質..125
第二節 小布希總統的國安團隊..138
第三節 新保守主義份子的影響力..156
小結..163
第六章 結論..165
壹、研究發現..166
貳、新古典現實主義理論觀點之分析..169
參、假設驗證與探討..177
肆、後續研究方向..179
參考文獻..181
附件一 小布希政府相關部會戰前作為與政府官員發言..193
附件二 倫斯斐的「備忘錄」:對伊拉克戰爭可能涉及的風險..201

表目錄
表3-1、美國對伊拉克的小規模軍事干預行動..46
表4-1、美國出兵伊拉克決策過程重要事件..88
表4-2、國務院戰前作為..93

圖目錄
圖1-1、研究架構圖..26


參考文獻 參考文獻

壹、中文部分

一、專書
洪丁福,2000。《國際政治的理論與實際》台北:國立編譯館。

二、專書譯著
Dunne, Tim, Milja Jurki, and Steve Smith著,黃宗顯譯,2013。《國際關係理論:學科的面貌》(International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity)。台北:韋伯文化。

三、期刊
王傳劍,2005。〈新保守主義與冷戰後美國對外戰略〉,《山東大學學報》,第3期,頁155-160。
李思嫻,2011/6。〈Neoclassical Realism, the State and Foreign Policy〉,《政治科學季評》,第30 期,2011年6月,頁1-5。
辛本健,2003/4〈美國新保守派與布什政府的『新帝國大戰略』〉,《二十一世紀評論》,第67期,頁4-15。
陳一新,2001/1〈從布希外交團隊與領導風格看美國外交與兩岸政策〉,《遠景季刊》,第2卷,第1期,頁1-34。

四、學位論文
白兆偉,2007。《美國小布希政府出兵伊拉克之決策研—從層次分析探討》。台中:國立中興大學國際政治研究所碩士論文。

貳、英文部分

一、 專書
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Bobbit, Philip, 2001. The Shield of Achilles. New York: Knopf.
Bonn, Scott A., 2010. Mass Deception: Moral Panic and the U.S. War on Iraq. NJ: Rutgers University Press.
Brewer, Susan A., 2009. Why America Fights: Patriotism and War Propaganda from the Philippines to Iraq. New York: Oxford University Press.
Bush, George W., 2010. Decision Points. New York: Random House.
Cha, Victor D. and David C. Kang, 2003. Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies. New York: Columbia University Press.
Chatterjee, Pratap, 2009. Halliburton’s Army: How a Well-Connected Texas Oil Company Revolutionized the Way America Makes War. New York: Nation Books.
Cheney, Dick, 2011. In My Time. New York: Threshold Editions.
Cherkaoui, Tarek, 2017. The News Media at War: The Clash of western and Arab Networks in the Middle East. New York: I. B. Tauris.
Cherkaoui, Tarek, 2017. The News Media At War: The Clash Of Western And Arab Networks in the Middle East. New York: I. B. Tauris.
Chomsky, Norm, 2003. Hegemony or Survival: America’s Quest for Global Dominance. New York: Henry Holt.
Clark, Richard A., 2004. Against All Enemies: inside America’s War on Terror. New York: Free Press.
Daalder, Ivo H. and James M. Lindsay, 2003. America Unbound: The Bush Revolution in Foreign Policy. Washington, D. C.: Brookings Institution Press.
DeYoung, Karen, 2006. Soldier: The Life of Colin Powell. New York: Knopf.
Doran, Christopher, 2012. Making the World Safe for Capitalism: How Iraq Threatened the US Economic Empire and Had to Be Destroyed. London: Pluto Press.
Draper, Robert, 2007. Dead Certain: The Presidency of George W. Bush. New York: Free Press.
Duffield, John S. and Peter J. Dombrowski, 2009. Balance Sheet: The Iraq War and U.S. National Security. California: Stanford Security Studies.
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Edwards, George C. III and Desmond S. King, 2007. The Polarized Presidency of George W. Bush. New York: Oxford University Press.
Feffer, John ed., 2003. Power Trip: U.S. Unilateralism and Global Strategy after September 11. New York: Seven Stories Press.
Feith, Douglas J., 2009. War and Decision: Inside the Pentagon at the Swan of the War on Terrorism. New York: Harper.
Frum, David and Richard Perel, 2003. An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror. New York: Ballantine Books.
George, Roger Z and James Bruce, eds. 2008. Analyzing Intelligence: Origin, Obstacles, and Innovations. New York: Georgetown University Press.
Gordon, Michael R. and Bernard E. Trainor, 2006. Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq. New York: Random House.
Halper, Stefan & Jonathan Clarke, 2004. America Alone: The Neo-Conservatives and the Global Order. New York: Cambridge University Press.
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Khalidi, Rashid. 2004. Resurrecting Empire: Western Footprints and America’s Perilous Path in the Middle East. Boston: Beacon Press.
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Mearsheimer, John J. and Stephen M. Walt, 2007. The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Mearsheimer, John, 2013. Why Leaders Lie: The Truth about Lying in International Politics. New York: Oxford University Press.
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--------------------, 2004. Plan of Attack. New York: Simon & Schuster.
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二、 期刊論文
Bar-Joseph, Uri, 2013. “The Politicization of Intelligence: A Comparative Study,” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 347-369.
Brands, H. W., 2004/3. George Bush and the Gulf War of 1991, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 113-131.
Curtiss, Richard H., 2004/9. “Robert Kagan: Honeyed Words and Neat Phrases, with a Neoconservative Twist,” Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, Vol. 23, No, 7, pp. 23-24.
Ellis, Jason D. 2003/Spring. “The Best Defense: Counterproliferation and U.S. National Strategy,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 26, No. 2, p. 116
Gholz, Eugene and Harvey M, Sapolsky, 1999/Winter. “Restructuring the U.S. Defense Industry,” International Security, Vol. 24, No.3, pp. 5-51.
Killgore, Andrew I., 2005/4. “Neocon Douglas Feith to Resign from Pentagon, as AIPAC Investigations Continue,” Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, Vol. 24, No. 3, p. 19.
Lijphart, Arend, 1971/9. “Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method,” The American Political Science Review, Vol. 65, No. 3, pp. 691-693.
Lind, Michael, 2002/5. “Distorting U.S. Foreign Policy: The Israel Lobby and American Power,” Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 26-31.
McGovern, George, 2003/4. “The Reason Why: Bush's Motives Have More to Do with Empire and Profit Than with Liberating Iraq,” The Nation, Vol. 276, No. 15, pp.18-21.
Nikolaev, Alexander G. and Douglas V. Porpora, 2007. “Talking War: How Elite U.S. Newspaper Editorials and Opinion Pieces Debated the Attack on Iraq,” Sociological Focus, Vol. 40, Issue., 1, pp.6-25.
Petras, James, 2007. “Why Condemning Israel and the Zionist Lobby is so important, Journal of Contemporary Asia,” Vol. 37, Issue. 3, pp. 380-385.
Pfiffner, James, 2004/3. “Did President Bush Misled the Country in His Arguments for War with Iraq?” Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 34 Issue 1, pp. 25-46.
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Rudalevige, Andrew, 2005/6. “The Structure of Leadership: Presidents, Hierarchies, and Information Flow,” Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 35, No. 2, Pp. 333-360.
Schweller, Randall L., 2004/Fall. “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing,” International Security, Vol. 29, No. 2, p. 169.
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〈先探/「石油人民幣」上路〉,《ETtoday新聞雲》,.
〈觀察:清晰、有禮而不留情面的齊爾考特報告〉,《BBC中文網》,.




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