本篇論文主要探討區域貿易協定對貿易的影響，基於全球的區域經貿整合已成為主流，而台灣近期積極與東南亞國家發展經貿外交，故以東協十加六區域貿易協定作為研究對象，並以實證結果提出政策建議供為政者參考。本文的研究方法沿用Baier and Bergstrand (2007) 所提出之追蹤資料型態的結構引力模型，採用1990年至2018年東協十加六的出口貿易總值資料，將研究資料分為兩組樣本，一為東協十加六之16國樣本，另一為擴充至其他亞太地區共計43個國家的樣本，分別探討簽訂東協十加六區域貿易協定前後，以及有無簽訂此區域貿易協定對貿易流量的影響。
    經本文採取多項穩健性測試分析，包含在模型中加入不同貿易協定的虛擬變數、考慮貿易協定的落遲效果和控制貿易流量隨時間增長的趨勢等，藉由上述各項穩健性檢驗，皆可得到在東協十加六區域內的樣本中，簽訂東協十加六區域貿易協定之後，對這十六個簽訂國彼此之間的雙邊貿易流量相較於簽訂前有顯著的增進效果，由最適的模型估計結果可推估其可增加5.2%的貿易流量；而在擴大範圍(亞太地區)的樣本中，有加入東協十加六區域貿易協定的國家，相較於無簽訂此區域貿易協定的國家，則其與同為此區域貿易協定簽訂國之間則可增加3.87%的貿易流量。

This paper aims to investigate the trade effects of regional trade agreements. As regional economic integration has become the mainstream worldwide, Taiwanese government recently has intended to develop deeper economic cooperation with Southeast Asian countries. As such, this study plans to investigate the trade effect of joining ASEAN plus six. We apply the panel-data version of “structural gravity” equation developed by Baier and Bergstrand (2007) to two sets of samples. The first one is the sample that covers 16 member countries in ASEAN plus six, and the other one is an expanded data to include totally 43 countries in the Asia-Pacific area. We collect the corresponding bilateral-trade-flows data for pairing countries in our samples over the 1990-2018 period. 
    The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) for the 16-country sample, the regional trade agreement of ASEAN plus six has positive effect on trade flows inside the trade bloc. It is estimated that compared to the bilateral trade flows before singing the regional agreements, the bilateral trade flows between member countries gaining 5.2% after signing the regional trade agreement; (2) for the expanded sample, the estimate results show that the membership of ASEAN plus six can increase the bilateral trade flows with 3.87%, compared with those countries not signing this regional trade agreement. These results are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests, such as additionally considering different types of trade agreements, adding lagged effects of trade agreements, and controlling for the trend variables.

目 錄
第一章 緒論	1
第一節 研究動機與目的	1
第二節 東南亞國協背景與東協十加六簡介	2
第三節 研究架構	4
第二章 文獻回顧	6
第一節 區域貿易理論相關文獻	6
第二節 引力模型與卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法相關文獻	10
第三章 研究方法	13
第一節 理論基礎─結構引力模型	13
第二節 實證計量模型─卜瓦松擬最大概似估計法	14
第四章 實證資料與變數說明	20
第一節 資料來源與範圍	20
第二節 變數之敘述統計量與描述	21
第五章 實證結果與分析	28
第一節 東協十加六區域內估計結果	28
第二節 擴大樣本(亞太地區)之區域貿易協定估計結果	37
第六章 結論與建議	45
參考文獻	48

圖 表 目 錄
圖1-1 研究流程圖	5
表4-1 第一組樣本：東協十加六之資料敘述統計量	23
表4-2 東協十加六區域貿易協定簽訂時程	24
表4-3 東協十加六區域內之自由貿易協定簽訂時程	25
表4-4 第二組樣本：東協十六國加上亞太地區等43個國家之資料敘述統計量	26
表4-5 東協十加六區域外之自由貿易協定簽訂時程	27
表5-1 東協十加六區域貿易協定估計結果	33
表5-2 東協十加六區域貿易協定及區域內自由貿易協定之估計結果	34
表5-3 東協十加六區域貿易協定估計結果(考量時間趨勢項)	35
表5-4 東協十加六區域貿易協定及區域內自由貿易協定之估計結果(考量時間趨勢項)	36
表5-5 擴大樣本-東協十加六區域貿易協定估計結果	41
表5-6 擴大樣本-東協十加六區域貿易協定及區域內和區域外自由貿易協定估計結果	42
表5-7 擴大樣本-東協十加六區域貿易協定估計結果(考量時間趨勢項)	43
表5-8 擴大樣本-東協十加六區域貿易協定及區域內和區域外自由貿易協定估計結果 (考量時間趨勢項)	44

參考文獻
中文部分
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李坤晉 (2006)，「亞太地區經濟整合之研究」，台灣大學國際企業學研究所學位論文。
吳靜芝與翁嘉禧 (2013)，「東協加一的貿易創造與貿易轉向效果之研究」，國際關係學報，(36)，105-146。
郭錦婷 (1999)，「引力模型應用在雙邊貿易之分析—以亞太國家為例」，政治大學碩士論文。

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