§ 瀏覽學位論文書目資料
  
系統識別號 U0002-1407202111081700
DOI 10.6846/TKU.2021.00305
論文名稱(中文) 逾放比對銀行經營績效之非線性影響
論文名稱(英文) The Nonlinear Impact of Non-Performing Loans on Banking Performance
第三語言論文名稱
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中文) 財務金融學系碩士班
系所名稱(英文) Department of Banking and Finance
外國學位學校名稱
外國學位學院名稱
外國學位研究所名稱
學年度 109
學期 2
出版年 110
研究生(中文) 林政穎
研究生(英文) Cheng-Ying Lin
學號 608530670
學位類別 碩士
語言別 繁體中文
第二語言別
口試日期 2021-07-03
論文頁數 49頁
口試委員 指導教授 - 聶建中
共同指導教授 - 謝志柔
委員 - 莊孟翰
委員 - 葉佳燕
委員 - 聶建中
關鍵字(中) 逾放比
經營績效
縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型
關鍵字(英) Non-Performing Loans
Banking Performance
PSTR
第三語言關鍵字
學科別分類
中文摘要
台灣金融產業的發展相當多元,對於銀行而言,經營的績效越好,對銀行的未來發展也會越好。關於銀行經營績效好壞的衡量標準,並沒有一定的準則,由於銀行的主要業務還是以存、放款為主,因此,本研究以存、放款相關數據為核心對銀行的經營績效進行分析。本研究將透過逾期放款比率對銀行經營績效的影響進行分析,使用縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型(Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model, PSTR) 並利用不同家銀行的逾放比做為門檻變數來進行分析,其中也加入了與放款相關的經濟變數以及總體經濟變數來進行分析。實證結果發現,總共產生三個門檻值,且與過去的文獻不同,在大於最大門檻值時,逾放比的增加會使銀行的經營績效成長,推測是政府因應金融危機期間的貨幣政策,使資金流動增加,逾放比提高的同時,也增加了銀行的收益,建議可更進一步的驗證結果的正確性。其他變數則是幾乎不顯著或只在特定門檻區間內顯著,建議可使用其他變數進行分析。
英文摘要
The development of the financial industry in Taiwan is quite diversified. For banks, the better their operating performance, the better for the bank's future development. There is no standard for measuring the performance of a bank. Since the main business of a bank is mainly deposit and lending, this study analyzes the bank's operating performance with the data related to deposit and lending as the core. This study will analyze the impact of the Non-Performing Loans Ratio on the bank’s operating performance, using the Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model (PSTR) and using the Non-Performing Loans Ratio of different banks as the threshold variable for analysis. It also includes economic variables related to lending and Macroeconomics variables for analysis. The empirical results found that a total of three thresholds were generated, and different from the previous literature, when the threshold is greater than the maximum threshold, the increase in the Non-Performing Loans Ratio will increase the operating performance of the bank. It is speculated that the government responded to the monetary policy during the financial crisis, The increase in capital flow and the increase in the Non-Performing Loans Ratio also increase the bank's income. It is recommended that the correctness of the results can be further verified. Other variables are almost insignificant or only significant within a certain threshold interval. It is recommended to use other variables for analysis.
第三語言摘要
論文目次
目錄
第一章   緒論............................................1
第一節 研究背景與動機.....................................1
第二節 研究目的......................................... 2
第二章   文獻探討........................................4
第一節 逾期放款比相關文獻.................................4
第二節 總體經濟因素與逾放比之影響..........................9
第三節 文獻總回顧........................................13
第三章   研究方法.......................................15
第一節 變數定義.........................................15
第二節 縱橫單根檢定 (Panel Unit Root Test)..............17
第三節 縱橫平滑移轉平滑迴歸模型(Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models).....................................21
第四節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型之設定.........................26
第四章   實證結果.......................................30
第一節 研究樣本.........................................30
第二節 敘述統計.........................................30
第三節 縱橫單根檢定......................................31
第四節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型檢定之實證結果..................32
第五章   結論...........................................41
一.結論.................................................41
二.建議.................................................43
參考文獻................................................44
一、中文文獻............................................44
二、英文文獻............................................45	
表目錄
表 4-1-1 研究樣本銀行...................................30
表 4-2-1 各變數之敘述統計................................31
表 4-3-1 單根檢定結果...................................32
表 4-4-1 逾放比對銀行經營績效之同質性檢定.................33
表 4-4-2 轉換模型之選擇..................................34
表 4-4-3 逾放比對銀行經營績效之轉換區間個數檢定............36
表 4-4-4 逾放比對銀行經營績效之模型估計結果...............37
表 4-4-5 逾放比對銀行經營績效模型中解釋變數之影響..........40
圖目錄
圖 3-3-1 M=1之轉換模型..................................24
圖 3-3-2 M=2之轉換模型..................................25
參考文獻
一、中文文獻
1.吳維倫,(2015),台灣銀行業逾期放款比率影響要素之研究:民營與官股金控之比較,臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
2.李翊如,(2018),銀行風險管理在不同逾放比下對財務績效之影響探討—金控與非金控銀行之比較,淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班碩士論文。
3.沈士勛,(2016),銀行營業特性對逾期放款比率影響之實證研究,中正大學財務金融學系碩士論文。
4.林玉釵,(2019),總體經濟變數對銀行放款的影響,淡江大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班碩士論文。
5.林惠雯,(2019),中國上市銀行不良貸款與總體經濟及銀行特徵變量之相關,中山大學,金融創新產業碩士專班碩士論文。
6.林筱鳳,(2017),「財務經營績效與信用風險因子相關性分析」,商業現代化學刊,第8卷第3期,頁307~325。
7.洪振義、江啟正、蕭宇君,(2016),「股權結構、財務比率與總體經濟因素對公司績效關係之研究-以台灣銀行業為例」,全球商業經營管理學報,第八期,頁69~78。
8.倪衍森、鄭新民、黃寶玉,(2009),「銀行營業特性與資本適足率會影響逾放比?」,商管科技季刊,第10卷第3期,頁 465~489。
9.陳志韋,(2016),商業銀行經營績效相關指標之關聯性探討,中山大學企業管理學系研究所碩士論文。
10.陳昭佑,(2017),銀行業獲利因素之研究,臺灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
11.彭盛謀,(2016),台灣銀行業財務績效對資產品質指標之研究,中原大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
12.游宏生,(2014),銀行逾放比率與經營績效之關聯性分析,嶺東科技大學企業管理系高階經營管理碩士在職專班碩論文。
13.趙翊伶,(2020),探討台灣銀行業內部因素與外部因素之獲利能力分析,國立臺北商業大學財務金融系碩士論文。
14.劉大溶,(2016),總體經濟衝擊與個體銀行的風險反應:台灣的實證研究,清華大學經濟學系碩士論文。
二、英文文獻
1.Andrews, D. W. K. and Ploberger, W, (1994), “Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative”, Econometrics, Vol. 62(6), pp.1383-1414.
2.Beck, R., Jakubik, P., and Piloiu, A, (2015), “Key Determinants of Non-performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample,” Open Economies Review, Vol. 26(3), pp.525-550.
3.Bhattarai, Y. R, (2017), “Effect of Non-Performing Loan on the Profitability of Commercial Banks in Nepal,” Prestige International Journal Of Management and Research, Vol. 10(2), pp.1-9.
4.Davies, R. B, (1977), "Hypothesis Testing When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative”, Biometrika, Vol. 64(2), pp.247-254.
5.Davies, R. B, (1987), "Hypothesis Testing When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative", Biometrika, Vol. 74(1), pp.33-43.
6.Gonzáles, A., Teräsvirta, T. and van Dijk, D, (2005), “Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models”, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, Vol. 165, pp.1-33. 
7.González, A., Teräsvirta, T. and van Dijk, D, (2004), “Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model and an Application to Investment under Credit Constraints,” Working Paper.
8.Granger, C. W. J. and Teräsvirta, T. (1993), “Modelling Nonlinear Economic Relationships”, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
9.Hadri, K, (2000), “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data”, The Econometrics Journal, Vol. 3(2), pp.148-161.
10.Hansen, B. E, (1996), "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified Under The Null Hypothesis", Econometrica, Vol. 64(2), pp.413-430.
11.Hansen, B. E, (1999), “Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing, and Inference”, Journal Of Econometrics, Vol. 93(2), pp.345-368.
12.Hsiao, C. (1986), “Analysis of Panel Data”, Econometric Society Monographs, Cambridge; New York and Sydney: Cambridge University Press, 11.
13.Islam, K. M. Z., Alam, M. B. and Hossain, M. M, (2019), “Impact of Credit Risk Management on Bank Performance: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh,” South Asian Journal of Management, Vol. 26(2), pp. 32-64.
14.Jansen, E. S. and Teräsvirta, T, (1996), “Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 58(4), pp. 735-763.
15.Kjosevski, J. and Petkovski, M, (2017), “Non-performing Loans in Baltic States: Determinants and Macroeconomic Effects” Baltic Journal of Economics, Vol. 17(1), pp. 25-44.
16.Koju, L., Koju, R. and Wang, S, (2018), “Macroeconomic and Bank-specific Determinants of Non-performing Loans: Evidence from Nepalese Banking System,” Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Vol. 7(3), pp. 111-138.
17.Liang, Lien-Wen, Cheng, Cheng-Ping and Lin, Yipin, (2020), “Determinants of Banking Efficiency and Survival in Taiwan with Consideration of The Real Management Cost,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 56(5), pp. 1003-1023.
18.Lundbergh, S., Teräsvirta, T. and van Dijk, D, (2003), “Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 21(1), pp104-121.
19.Luukkonen, R., Saikkonen, P. and Teräsvirt, T, (1988), “Testing Linearity Against Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models”, Biometrika, Vol. 75(3), pp. 491- 499.
20.Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P, (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, Vol. 75(2), pp. 335-346.
21.Radivojevic, N. and Jovovic, J, (2017), “Examining of Determinants of Non-performing Loans,” Prague Economic Papers, Vol. 26(3), pp. 300-316.
22.Saba, I., Kouser, R. and Azeem, M, (2012), “Determinants of Non Performing Loans: Case of US Banking Sector,” Romanian Economic Journal, Vol. 15(44), pp. 125-135.
23.Shen, Chung-Hua and Chen, Ting-Hsuan, (2010), “Estimating Banking Cost Efficiency with The Consideration of Cost Management” Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 50 (4), pp. 424-435.
24.Tanasković, S. and Jandrić, M, (2015) “Macroeconomic and Institutional Determinants of Non-performing Loans” Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Vol. 4(1), pp. 47-62. 
25.Teräsvirta, T, (1994), “Specification, Estimation, and Evaluation of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models”, Journal of The American Statistical Association, Vol. 89(425), pp. 208-218. 
26.Teräsvirta, T, (1998), “Modelling Economic Relationships with Smooth Transition Regressions”, Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics, pp. 507-552.
27.Vithessonthi, C, (2016) “Deflation, Bank Credit Growth, and Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from Japan,” International Review of Financial Analysis; Vol. 45, pp.295-305.
28.Wood, A. and Skinner, N, (2018), “Determinants of Non-performing Loans: Evidence from Commercial Banks in Barbados” The Business & Management Review, Vol. 9(3), pp.44-64.
29.Zhang, Z., Xie, L., Lu, X. and Zhang, Z, (2016), “Determinants of Financial Distress in Large Financial Institutions: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies,” Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 34(2), pp.250-267.
論文全文使用權限
校內
校內紙本論文立即公開
同意電子論文全文授權校園內公開
校內電子論文立即公開
校外
同意授權
校外電子論文立即公開

如有問題,歡迎洽詢!
圖書館數位資訊組 (02)2621-5656 轉 2487 或 來信