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系統識別號 U0002-1407201522405800
中文論文名稱 汽車選擇對車體損失險風險的影響
英文論文名稱 The impact of automobile choice on the risk of automobile physical damage insurance
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 保險學系保險經營碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Insurance
學年度 103
學期 2
出版年 104
研究生中文姓名 陳毓雯
研究生英文姓名 Yu-Wen Chen
學號 602560061
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2015-06-17
論文頁數 67頁
口試委員 指導教授-汪琪玲
委員-曾郁仁
委員-黃瑞卿
中文關鍵字 風險分類  汽車配備  車體損失險 
英文關鍵字 risk classification  car equipment  automobile physical damage insurance 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文針對被保險人之汽車車型及配備選擇與風險間之關係進行探討,分別以羅吉斯迴歸、負二項迴歸及簡單迴歸分析損失機率、損失頻率及損失嚴重程度。除了使用保險公司現行的核保因子之外,也加入被保險人居住區域及婚姻狀況等因子。
研究結果顯示,車型的部分休旅車的風險程度顯著低於其他車種,小型五門車的風險程度則是顯著高於其他車種;車配備的部分,加入安全氣囊、煞車系統個數還有是否有倒車輔助系統進行分析,在損失機率及損失幅度的部分,有安裝倒車輔助系統者較沒有安裝者風險程度顯著較低;損失嚴重程度的部分則是原廠配備有多個安全氣囊及兩個煞車系統者風險較高。上述除了車型本身結構與配備的功用會影響損失率外,也有可能是被保險人選擇行為的心理因素所造成風險的不同。也建議保險公司能夠在風險分類時多方面考量,以避免不公平的訂價行為。
英文摘要 The study discusses the impact of automobile choice (car type and equipment) on the risk of automobile physical damage insurance. We use logistic regression, negative binomial regression and simple regression to analyze loss probabilities, loss frequencies and loss severities. Expect for using risk factors which insurance companies using now, we add living and marriage factors to analyze.

The study shows that the risk degree of Recreational Vehicle (RV) is lower than other car type, but the sport utility vehicle (SUV) is higher than others. In addition, about car equipment, we analyze the relationship between airbag, braking system and parking assist system and loss. For loss probabilities and loss frequencies, the car equipped braking systems are safer. But for loss severities, the risk degree of car equipped more airbags and braking systems are higher than other car. Expect for car structure, the psychological factors of insured plays an important role in the influence of risk degree of automobile physical damage insurance, so the study makes suggestions on insurance company to aware of these factor when calculate premium.
論文目次 目錄
第一章、緒論 1
第一節、研究背景 1
第二節 研究動機與目的 5
第三節 研究架構 8
第二章、文獻回顧 10
第一節、風險分類相關文獻 10
第二節、個人行為及心理因素之相關文獻 13
第三節、汽車配備與車型相關文獻 16
第三章、研究資料與研究方法 18
第一節、資料來源 18
第二節、資料之敘述性統計分析 19
第三節、實證假說 27
第四節、實證模型 31
第四章、實證結果 41
第一節、羅吉斯模型的實證結果 41
第二節、負二項迴歸模型的實證結果 45
第三節、簡單迴歸的實證結果 48
第五章、結論與建議 52
第一節、研究結論 52
第二節、研究建議 53
參考文獻 54
附錄 58

表目錄
表1-1、我國小客車近十年統計資料 2
表1-2、道路交通肇事率-按車輛數計算 3
表1-3、近五年產險業保費金額概況 5
表1-4、近五年產險業賠款概況 6
表1-5、近五年車險、任意險、車體損失險市場保費收入及占比 6
表1-6、汽車保險及車體損失險(甲、乙式)之賠款率 7
表3-1、全樣本及車型損失比例 20
表3-2、全樣本及車型出險次數比 20
表3-3、全樣本及車型出險之平均理賠金額比例 20
表3-4、2011及2012年樣本汽車配備分配狀況 25

圖目錄
圖1-1、我國近十年汽車登記數成長趨勢 1
圖1-2、論文架構圖 9
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3.李沃牆,2004,基因演化類神經網路模型於汽車險核保系統之建構,保險專刊,20卷2期,頁:113-130。
4.李美杏,1996,台灣汽車保險危險因素之決定,企業管理學報,第38期,頁:55-84。
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11.彭榮山,2001,風險細分與費率相關之實證研究-以汽車第三人財損責任險為例,高雄第一科技大學風險管理與保險系碩士論文。
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二、英文部分
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Personality and Individual Differences, 11(6): 541-546.
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