本研究檢驗了印尼政府於1999到2009年間，選擇軍備維持計畫以實施軍隊現代化。本研究採用「理性決策者模式」，以檢驗此研究問題。本研究假設在世界上之每個國家，決策者都以謹慎小心之理性思考，制定其國防政策。因為根據理性主義者的途徑，對國家而言，國防安全議題為最重要之議題。
但是，本研究發現了意想不到的結果。印尼的國防規劃過程，不是經由理性決策過程而被實行的。根據「理性決策者模式」之理論，理性決策過程必須依據適用選項之結果，來制定決策。決策制定者選擇對國家最有利之結果來做出決定。然而，印尼政府選擇軍備維持計畫，則僅是基於簡單考量，財政問題及無外在威脅。
導致印尼國防規劃之非理性決定，特別是在軍隊現代化規劃方面，有五個互相關聯之因素，例：缺乏國防準則、缺乏效率、缺乏政策一致性、缺乏正確之威脅評估，以及預算導向之規劃。

This research examines the cause of the Indonesian government to choose arms maintenance program to modernize its military forces in the period 1999-2009. My research will apply the rational actor modeI (RAM) to examine the problem. It is based on my assumption that in anarchical world decision-makers in every country will formulate its defense policy very carefully and with rational considerations because, according to realist approach, security or military issues are the most important issue for a country. 
However, during my research I found unexpected finding, namely the process of defense planning in Indonesia is not carried out through a rational process of decision-making. According to the RAM, rational process of decision making is always based on the consideration of the outcomes of the available options. Decision-makers will choose an option that has the most beneficial outcomes related to state’s goals. Otherwise, the Indonesian government chose arms maintenance program is only based on simple consideration, namely financial problems and Indonesia does not have external threats. 
The irrationality in Indonesian defense planning, especially in force modernization planning, is caused by 5 interrelated factors, i.e. no national defense guideline, inefficiency, inconsistency, incorrect threat assessment, and budget-driven planning.

Abstract  (in Chinese)	i
Abstract (in English)	ii
Acknowledgement	iii
Table of contents	iv
List of figures	vii
List of maps	viii
List of tables	ix
Chapter I: Introduction	1
1.	Background 	1
1.1.	 Force modernization in Southeast Asia	5
2.	Research objectives	13
3.	Research scope	14
4.	Literature review on Indonesian force modernization	14
5.	Theoretical framework 	18
6.	Hypothesis	20
7.	Methodology	20
8.	Organization of chapters. 	21
Chapter II: An Overview of Indonesia Military Power	25
1.	Evolution of defense doctrine and military strategy 	25
1.1.	 What is total people’s defense?	27
1.2.	 Implications of the doctrine of total defense to defense capability	31
1.3.	 Critics over the strategy of total defense	36
2.	Defense research and development	38
3.	Defense industries 	40
3.1.	 Indonesia’s defense offset	40
3.2.	 Problems in defense industries	43
4.	Government’s commitment to produce and use homegrown weapons 	47
5.	Summary	49
Chapter III: Force Modernization in Southeast Asia and Indonesia	51
1.	Force modernization in Southeast Asia	51
1.1.	 Arms purchases and trends in Southeast Asian countries	52
1.2.	 Conflicts, force modernization and stability in Southeast Asia	60
2.	Indonesia’s force modernization: arms purchases and trends in Indonesia	64
3.	Arms maintenance as a chosen model for force modernization	67
3.1.	 Indonesia’s threat perception	68
3.2.	 Military budget as percentage of GNP and GDP	73
4.	Summary	80
Chapter IV: The Reasons for Arms Maintenance	81
1.	Outcomes matters: an hypothesis	81
1.1.	 Arms build-up program	85
1.2.	 Arms maintenance program	90
2.	Outcomes matters: unproven hypothesis	92
2.1.	Critics over the government’s defense planning	95
3.	Other problems in Indonesia’s defense management	100
3.1.	 Inefficiency	100
3.2.	 No national guideline	107
4.	Interrelations among problems	115
5.	Fixing the broken guard: from military reform to defense transformation	110
6.	Summary	116
Chapter V: Conclusion	118
1.	Major research finding	118
2.	Problems and policy recommendations	120
2.1.	Poor defense planning	120
2.2.	Policy recommendations	123
3.	Suggestions for future research	124
Bibliography	126


List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Hierarchical structure of Army’s Koter 30
Figure 3.1 Causes of stability in Southeast Asia 64
Figure 3.2 Readiness level of Indonesia Armed Forces in 2009 67
Figure 3.3 Number of Indonesian Armed Forces’ military operations since
1945-2004
71
Figure 3.4 Gap between proposed and obtained budget 75
Figure 3.5 Military budget of Southeast Asian countries 1999-2009 77
Figure 3.6 Southeast Asian countries’ military budget as percentage of GDP 78
Figure 4.1 Number of types of weapons by the sources 101
Figure 4.2 Allocation of Indonesia’s defense spending 2001-2010 102
Figure 4.3 Interrelations among problems in defense planning of force
modernization
109

List of Maps
Map 2.1 Indonesia’s layered defense system 34
Map 3.1 Distribution of military operations against insurgencies/separatisms
1945-2004
72

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