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系統識別號 U0002-1407201114421600
中文論文名稱 10年印尼軍備維持計劃:原因與問題 (1999-2009)
英文論文名稱 A Decade of Indonesia’s Arms Maintenance Program: Causes and Problems (1999 – 2009)
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 溫帝
研究生英文姓名 Wendy Andhika Prajuli
學號 698330338
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2011-06-15
論文頁數 131頁
口試委員 指導教授-李大中
委員-王高成
委員-沈明室
中文關鍵字 印度尼西亞  理性模式  部隊現代化  國防政策,決策 
英文關鍵字 Indonesia  Force Modernization  Rational Actor Model  Defense Policy  Decision-Making 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學政治學
學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 本研究檢驗了印尼政府於1999到2009年間,選擇軍備維持計畫以實施軍隊現代化。本研究採用「理性決策者模式」,以檢驗此研究問題。本研究假設在世界上之每個國家,決策者都以謹慎小心之理性思考,制定其國防政策。因為根據理性主義者的途徑,對國家而言,國防安全議題為最重要之議題。
但是,本研究發現了意想不到的結果。印尼的國防規劃過程,不是經由理性決策過程而被實行的。根據「理性決策者模式」之理論,理性決策過程必須依據適用選項之結果,來制定決策。決策制定者選擇對國家最有利之結果來做出決定。然而,印尼政府選擇軍備維持計畫,則僅是基於簡單考量,財政問題及無外在威脅。
導致印尼國防規劃之非理性決定,特別是在軍隊現代化規劃方面,有五個互相關聯之因素,例:缺乏國防準則、缺乏效率、缺乏政策一致性、缺乏正確之威脅評估,以及預算導向之規劃。
英文摘要 This research examines the cause of the Indonesian government to choose arms maintenance program to modernize its military forces in the period 1999-2009. My research will apply the rational actor modeI (RAM) to examine the problem. It is based on my assumption that in anarchical world decision-makers in every country will formulate its defense policy very carefully and with rational considerations because, according to realist approach, security or military issues are the most important issue for a country.
However, during my research I found unexpected finding, namely the process of defense planning in Indonesia is not carried out through a rational process of decision-making. According to the RAM, rational process of decision making is always based on the consideration of the outcomes of the available options. Decision-makers will choose an option that has the most beneficial outcomes related to state’s goals. Otherwise, the Indonesian government chose arms maintenance program is only based on simple consideration, namely financial problems and Indonesia does not have external threats.
The irrationality in Indonesian defense planning, especially in force modernization planning, is caused by 5 interrelated factors, i.e. no national defense guideline, inefficiency, inconsistency, incorrect threat assessment, and budget-driven planning.
論文目次 Abstract (in Chinese) i
Abstract (in English) ii
Acknowledgement iii
Table of contents iv
List of figures vii
List of maps viii
List of tables ix
Chapter I: Introduction 1
1. Background 1
1.1. Force modernization in Southeast Asia 5
2. Research objectives 13
3. Research scope 14
4. Literature review on Indonesian force modernization 14
5. Theoretical framework 18
6. Hypothesis 20
7. Methodology 20
8. Organization of chapters. 21
Chapter II: An Overview of Indonesia Military Power 25
1. Evolution of defense doctrine and military strategy 25
1.1. What is total people’s defense? 27
1.2. Implications of the doctrine of total defense to defense capability 31
1.3. Critics over the strategy of total defense 36
2. Defense research and development 38
3. Defense industries 40
3.1. Indonesia’s defense offset 40
3.2. Problems in defense industries 43
4. Government’s commitment to produce and use homegrown weapons 47
5. Summary 49
Chapter III: Force Modernization in Southeast Asia and Indonesia 51
1. Force modernization in Southeast Asia 51
1.1. Arms purchases and trends in Southeast Asian countries 52
1.2. Conflicts, force modernization and stability in Southeast Asia 60
2. Indonesia’s force modernization: arms purchases and trends in Indonesia 64
3. Arms maintenance as a chosen model for force modernization 67
3.1. Indonesia’s threat perception 68
3.2. Military budget as percentage of GNP and GDP 73
4. Summary 80
Chapter IV: The Reasons for Arms Maintenance 81
1. Outcomes matters: an hypothesis 81
1.1. Arms build-up program 85
1.2. Arms maintenance program 90
2. Outcomes matters: unproven hypothesis 92
2.1. Critics over the government’s defense planning 95
3. Other problems in Indonesia’s defense management 100
3.1. Inefficiency 100
3.2. No national guideline 107
4. Interrelations among problems 115
5. Fixing the broken guard: from military reform to defense transformation 110
6. Summary 116
Chapter V: Conclusion 118
1. Major research finding 118
2. Problems and policy recommendations 120
2.1. Poor defense planning 120
2.2. Policy recommendations 123
3. Suggestions for future research 124
Bibliography 126


List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Hierarchical structure of Army’s Koter 30
Figure 3.1 Causes of stability in Southeast Asia 64
Figure 3.2 Readiness level of Indonesia Armed Forces in 2009 67
Figure 3.3 Number of Indonesian Armed Forces’ military operations since
1945-2004
71
Figure 3.4 Gap between proposed and obtained budget 75
Figure 3.5 Military budget of Southeast Asian countries 1999-2009 77
Figure 3.6 Southeast Asian countries’ military budget as percentage of GDP 78
Figure 4.1 Number of types of weapons by the sources 101
Figure 4.2 Allocation of Indonesia’s defense spending 2001-2010 102
Figure 4.3 Interrelations among problems in defense planning of force
modernization
109

List of Maps
Map 2.1 Indonesia’s layered defense system 34
Map 3.1 Distribution of military operations against insurgencies/separatisms
1945-2004
72
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Bitzinger, Richard A. “A New Arms Race? The Political Economy of Maritime Military Modernization in the Asia Pacific.” The Economic of Peace and Security Journal, Vol. 4, No. 2 (2009): 32-37.
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Newspapers and Magazines
Air Force to Purchase 16 Super Tucano Fighters, The Jakarta Post, January 24, 2010, http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2010/01/24/air-force-purchase-16-super-tucano-fighters.html.
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Interviews
Interview with Edy Prasetyono Ph.D (March 2, 2011).
Interview with Effendi Choirie (March 2, 2011).
Interview with Marsekal Madya (TNI) Eris Heriyanto (March 8, 2011).
Interview with Mufti Makaarim (February 2011).
Others
Widjajanto, Andi. “Evolusi Doktrin Pertahanan Indonesia,” http://www.propatria.or.id/loaddown/Paper%20Diskusi/Evolusi%20Doktrin%20Pertahanan%20Indonesia%20-%20Andi%20Widjajanto.pdf.
The Perspektif Baru's interview with Edy Prasetyono, July 26, 2006, http://www.perspektifbaru.com/wawancara/541.
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