近年來少子化問題普遍出現在許多國家的發展過程中，台灣地區在世代變遷與教育普及效果發酵後，不僅生育觀念發生轉變，婦女也積極投身勞動市場，種種因素都導致生育率持續的惡化，過往文獻對於此問題分為二派見解：一方認為生育率成長有助經濟發展；另一方卻認為生育率成長滯礙經濟成長。近年來鄰近各國與歐美先進國家越來越重視人口危機不利於永久發展的論點，紛紛祭出提振生育政策來提高生育率。本文為瞭解台灣地區生育率、異質勞動力與經濟成長的關係，收集近55年的時間序列資料以實證方法分析經濟成長模型，變數包含：人均國內生產毛額、婦女勞動參與率、男性勞動參與率以及總生育率。

本文先以單根檢定確定變數均為I(1)的時間序列後，利用Johansen 最大概似估計法找出一組共整合向量來代表變數長期關係，結果顯示婦女勞動參與率以及男性勞動參與率均有助於經濟成長，並且婦女勞動參與率的貢獻彈性上大於男性勞動參與率，而生育率雖不利於經濟發展但是影響程度不大。另外，本文以誤差修正模型、衝擊反應函數分析與預測誤差變異數分析來探討變數的因果關係與中短期的調整過程，結果顯示生育率為經濟成長之內生變數，男性的所得成長有助於提升生育率，生育率和婦女勞動參與率則呈現負向因果關係，並且婦女勞動參與率影響生育率的效果大於生育率影響婦女勞動參與率的效果。

The phenomenon of declining fertility rate has been observed in Taiwan, one of the newly industrialized countries. To understand the reason behind, this thesis applied cointegration methods to estimate and test the time series data on fertility choice behavior, labor efforts (female and male labor force participation) and per capita output in Taiwan, over the period from 1951-2005. 

The results show that there exists a long run relationship among these four variables and both labor efforts contribute to economic growth. Even though the results indicate the rising fertility rate will deteriorate economic performance, it hasn’t become a burden yet. Also the results of employing vector error-correction models (VECM), variance decomposition and
impulse functions have showed that fertility is endogenous in the system and female labor force participation is important to explain for the economic growth and declining fertility rate.

目錄
第一章 緒論.............................................. 1
第一節 研究背景.......................................... 2
一、台灣地區生育率與人口結構之轉變過程................... 2
二、我國生育政策之轉變................................... 3
三、台灣地區近年生育率降低之原因......................... 6
四、台灣地區異質勞動參與率之變化......................... 10
第二節 研究動機與目的.....................................13
第三節 研究架構與流程.....................................13
第二章 文獻回顧...........................................15
第一節 探討生育率與經濟成長的相關文獻.....................15
第二節 相關實證文獻回顧...................................19
一、生育率對於經濟發展的影響............................. 19
二、生育率與婦女勞動參與率的關係......................... 21
第三章 研究方法與實證模型.................................23
第一節 相關變數定義與資料來源............................ 23
第二節 實證模型設定與實證方法............................ 25
第三節 單根檢定(Unit root test).......................... 27
一、Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)單根檢定法.............. 27
二、Phillips-Perron (P-P)單根檢定法...................... 29
三、Kwiatkowski，Phillips，Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) )單根檢定法 29
第四節 向量自我迴歸模型.................................. 30
第五節 共整合檢定(Co-integration test) .................. 31
第六節 誤差修正模型(Error Correction Model；ECM)......... 36
第七節 衝擊反應函數(Impulse Response Function)........... 36
第八節 預測誤差變異數分解(Variance Decomposition)........ 38
第四章 實證分析結果及其意涵.............................. 40
第一節 相關變數之單根檢定................................ 40
第二節 共整合檢定........................................ 47
第三節 誤差修正模型與因果關係............................ 49
第四節 衝擊反應函數...................................... 54
第五節 預測誤差變異數分解................................ 60
第五章 實證分析結果及其意涵.............................. 64
第一節 結論.............................................. 64
第二節 建議.............................................. 65
參考文獻..................................................68

表目錄
表1-1、台灣地區歷年生育資料............................... 2
表1-2、政府生育政策回顧之一............................... 4
表1-3、政府生育政策回顧之二............................... 5
表1-4、臺灣地區十五歲以上女性之理想子女數與已婚平均生育子女數....... 7
表1-5、臺灣地區十五歲以上已婚女性之理想與實際生育子女數-按教育程度分 7
表1-6、臺灣地區十五歲以上已婚女性之初婚年齡......................... 8
表1-7、臺灣地區十五至六十四歲已婚女性近年出生子女之托育費用......... 9
表1-8、各國婦女勞動參與率........................................... 10
表1-9、臺灣地區十五至六十四歲已婚女性曾因結婚、生育離職者之復職情形. 12
表1-10、臺灣地區十五至六十四歲曾經離職已婚女性之離職原因............ 12
表3-1、相關變數資料來源表........................................... 26
表4-1、ADF 單根檢模型............................................... 42
表4-2、ADF 與P-P 檢定之單根檢定結果................................. 45
表4-3、共整合模型之落後期數......................................... 47
表4-4、Johansen 之共整合檢定結果..................................... 48
表4-5、誤差修正模型估計結果......................................... 51
表4-6、變數因果關係綜合整理......................................... 53
表4-7、殘差項自我相關與常態分配檢定結果............................. 54
表4-8、預測誤差變異數分解之一....................................... 62
表4-9、預測誤差變異數分解之二....................................... 62
表4-10、預測誤差變異數分解之三...................................... 63
表4-11、預測誤差變異數分解之四...................................... 63

圖目錄
圖1-1、台灣地區之歷年異質勞動參與率................................. 10
圖1-2、研究流程圖................................................... 14
圖2-1、婦女勞動參與率演進圖......................................... 17
圖4-1、變數之時間序列資料長期趨勢圖................................. 41
圖4-2、變數一階差分後之時間序列資料長期趨勢圖....................... 46
圖4-3、衝擊反應函數結果............................................. 59

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