1945年8月6日及9日，美國分別以原子彈攻擊日本廣島與長崎，導致日本政府在8月14日正式公開宣布投降，而新型武器──原子彈──前所未見的效力也因此被看作是結束第二次世界大戰的關鍵因素、並為戰後的國際關係帶來了深遠的影響。究竟，結束戰爭是否為美國政府對日投彈的主因？抑或有其他緣故？本論文的研究目的即是在探究美國政府在戰爭結束前夕，相關部會以及決策參與者對於使用原子彈的決策有何不同的考量。另外，為使美國原子彈政策作出更完整的呈現，本論文亦將研究分析推及至美國政府決心發展該武器之際，以期作出更接近全貌的連貫。
　　本論文運用艾里遜與謝利高在1999年所修正的三種外交決策模式──美國政府之國家利益考量（理性行為者模式(Rational Actor Model)）、組織系統之影響妥協（組織行為模式(Organizational Behavior Model)）以及決策參與者之競爭議價（政府政治模式(Governmental Politics Model)）──為主要理論基礎，來解讀美國政府在羅斯福時期發展原子彈計劃以及杜魯門時期投擲原子彈的決策產生過程及原因。
　　在經過理性模式的分析後，本論文發現美國政府面對極權國家在全球各地的侵略時，以主動積極建立國防軍備的方式加以因應，並在二戰爆發後對參戰國提供協助、抑制戰事波及美國本土。因此，在聽聞物理學的新發現（鈾核分裂及預測之連鎖反應）可能幫助德國帶來影響戰事的武器技術後，羅斯福政府隨即開始該研究。另一方面，杜魯門政府則是在延續羅斯福政策之前提下，將對日投彈看作減低傷亡、結束戰爭之潛在選項。而在原子彈試爆成功後，該武器之強大效能以及一舉數得之特性使杜魯門政府選擇在攻入日本本土以及蘇聯實際參與對日作戰前儘早使用，意外地結束了戰爭。
　　其次，透過組織模式的分析，本研究發現羅斯福時期與杜魯門時期之原子政策有根本上的差異，前者為垂直性發展、後者為平行性競爭。首先，原子研究是成立於羅斯福政府創建的數個新委員會及部會，其中幾經改組與變遷、才在最終進入到軍方的控管。即便如此，參與計劃的相關人員皆以「率先（德國）發展出原子武器」為終極目標，因而自始至終主導著原子研究的發展、也使其得以在最高機密下快速擴張。另一方面，到了杜魯門政府時期，陸軍部已是唯一的負責部門、並大力推崇該武器的使用。然而，由於原子彈仍未進行試爆而無法確切判定其功效，並使得海軍部對其產生疑慮。最終，陸海兩軍部同意在加強海上封鎖、空中轟炸以及陸上進攻的戰術外，加入原子彈攻擊。同時，國務院也因戰後秩序的外交考量而贊同使用原子彈進行示威。因此，在上述參與決策的關鍵組織之建議下，杜魯門政府對日本進行了原子彈的轟炸攻擊。
　　最後，本論文在政府政治模式的分析之下得知，羅斯福總統以及杜魯門總統在對於原子彈政策的影響上也有著極大的差異。羅斯福總統透過模糊組織體系功能及職權來凸顯自己對議題的絕對掌握，同時，在勇於嘗試以及目標主義的性格影響下，更是開創了許多非官方顧問的特殊行動渠道(Action-channel)。因此，在愛因斯坦信件的警告下，羅斯福總統選擇避開現有的程序規則、成立委員會進行原子研究，並在爾後接受科學顧問──卡內基科學研究院院長布希──的建議，先後成立了不同的委員會及部會來精進原子研究、並在最後託付軍方負責。另一方面，杜魯門總統在經驗不足的情況下將組織運作改回結構分明、嚴謹的傳統領導方式，並大力倚賴決策參與者之共識來產生最終決策。也就是說，杜魯門總統理解到已故總統羅斯福的原子彈政策，加上最具影響力的兩位部會首長──戰爭部長史汀生與國務卿伯恩斯──不同出發點、但目標一致的狀況下做出的建議，對日使用原子彈已成了其不願挑戰、也無力改變的政策選項了。
　　總地來說，美國的原子彈政策始於單一因素──納粹德國的威脅、終於多項考量──延續政策、低傷亡結束戰爭以及威嚇蘇聯（取得戰後地位優勢）。前者較為單一決策者所主導，而後者則是組織及決策參與者導向之政策出產。

On August 6th and 9th, 1945, the United States attacked the Empire of Japan with atomic bombs and thus forced the Japanese government to publicly accept unconditional surrender proposed by the allied forces. Because of this, the newly developed military weapon—atomic bomb—was therefore seen as the crucial factor that ended WWII, and greatly influenced the post-war world. Yet, to the U.S. government, was ending the war the one and only reason? Hence, the purpose of this thesis is to explore the consideration from different levels in the process of decision-making on using the atomic bombs against Japan. Other than that, this thesis also pushes the analysis back to the origin of the development of atomic research—a.k.a. Manhattan Project—to acquire a better understanding on the history of U.S. atomic policies.
　　This thesis focuses on the decision-making process of U.S. atomic policies, both preparation and execution before and during the period of WWII. And by applying the three models, reversed by Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow in 1999, the analysis cuts in from three different angles—U.S. government (Rational Actor Mode, RAM), governmental organizations (Organizational Behavior Model, OBM) and high officials (Governmental Politics Model, GPM).
　　Through RAM, this thesis confirms that the U.S. government started the atomic research out of the fear of the great technical ability and determination of Nazi Germany and chose to use the bombs at the end of the war as a means to follow the policy previously made, reduce the possible casualties and prevent the Soviet Union from entering the war. As for the Organization Behavior, in the period of atomic research, the involved organizations all worked together to achieve the sole goal—getting the weapon before Germany, while in the last few months of the war, several solutions were recommended, and later, the organizations reconciled and added the atomic bombs as an extra tactic to weaken Japan’s resistance and deter the Soviet Union from complicating the post-war order. Lastly, GPM analysis indicates that individual posed a great influence on the U.S. atomic policies. Most of the directions were planned by Franklin D. Roosevelt, with the help of his most close science adviser—Dr. Vannevar Bush—through unconventional channels, and thus the inexperienced successor, Harry Truman, was there to follow and execute the policy with the consensus of high governmental officials. 
　　To sum up, by using the three models of decision-making process, this thesis provides a different look to analyze the U.S. policy on Manhattan Project. Such policy started with the threat posed by Nazi Germany and ended with several others—proceeding the predecessor’s policy, ending the war with minimum casualties and deterring the emerging threat—the Soviet Union. While the former was rather mono-dominated, the later was more consensus-oriented.

目次

第一章	緒論  1
　第一節     研究動機及目的  2
　第二節     研究方法與相關文獻探討  4
　第三節     研究架構與範圍限制  12
　第四節	     章節安排  13
第二章	理論探討與假設  17
　第一節	     理性行為模式  19
　第二節     組織行為模式  22
　第三節     政府政治模式  26
　第四節	     小結  32
第三章	理性行為模式  35
　第一節	     羅斯福政府的製彈關鍵  35
　第二節     杜魯門政府的投彈因素  43
　第三節     小結  57
第四章  組織行為模式  61
　第一節     曼哈頓計畫的推動  62
　第二節     戰爭部與國務院的合作妥協  69
　第三節     小結  83
第五章  政府政治模式  89
　第一節     總統的特質與決策風格  89
　第二節     決策參與者的議價與影響  103
　第三節     小結  130
第六章  結論  135
參考書目  145
附錄（一）曼哈頓計畫相關人員執掌  153
附錄（二）曼哈頓計劃發展沿革  155

圖表目次

圖次
【圖2-1】無反覆流動之決策制定  30
【圖2-2】存在反覆流動之決策制定  31
【圖5-1】 競爭式模式圖（羅斯福政府）91
【圖5-2】 形式主義模式圖（杜魯門政府）92
表次
【表2-1】本論文之相關假設與理論根據  33
【表3-1】美軍在太平洋島嶼的戰爭傷亡人數比例  52
【表3-2】美軍登陸日本本土傷亡人數預估  53

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