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系統識別號 U0002-1402201115413400
中文論文名稱 貨幣政 策與痛苦指數雙變數的長短期因果非線性關係探討
英文論文名稱 The Study on the Nonlinear Dynamic Causal Relationships between Monetary Policy and Two Variables of Misery Index
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 99
學期 1
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 陳海鵬
研究生英文姓名 Hai-Peng Chen
電子信箱 city.credit@msa.hinet.net
學號 797530036
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2010-12-27
論文頁數 56頁
口試委員 指導教授-聶建中
共同指導教授-林景春
委員-簡明哲
委員-聶建中
委員-李沃牆
委員-林景春
委員-陳達新
中文關鍵字 貨幣政策  痛苦指數  金融海嘯  非對稱共整合  門檻誤差修正模型 
英文關鍵字 monetary policy  misery index  subprime crisis  asymmetric cointegration  threshold error-correction model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究運用Enders and Granger (1998)和Enders and Siklos (2001)所發展出的動能門檻自我迴歸模型(Momentum-Threshold Autoregressive Model, M-TAR)及動能門檻誤差修正模型(Threshold Error-Correction Model, TECM),探討金融海嘯發生前後,國家施政的「貨幣政策」與總體經濟雙惡魔變數的「通貨膨脹」與「失業率」之長短期非線性因果關係,並以美國聯邦準備會理事長柏南克(Bernanke)意識到金融海嘯發生之嚴重性而啟動第一次升息的2007年9月18日的月資料時點(9月)做為分界點,進行金融海嘯發生前後變數間之因果關係是否兩期間產生變化之比較分析。
於門檻共整合檢定中發現,貨幣政策與通膨率間互動於金融海嘯前及金融海嘯後及貨幣政策與失業率間於金融海嘯之前及之後,四者之最適模型設定分別為M-TAR、TART、M-TAR及M-TART模型,而此四個門檻模型設定之門檻值 分別為-0.15872、-0.28000、-0.11493及-0.14773。並發現貨幣政策無論是與物價通膨之間,或是與失業率之間,也無論期間是在金融海嘯前或金融海嘯後,皆存在有長期均衡趨勢的非對稱共整合關係。
最後,綜合本研究門檻誤差修正模型因果關係檢定之結果,可得知貨幣政策與通膨率間及貨幣政策與失業率間之短期因果,無論於金融海嘯前或金融海嘯後,其間「領先-落後」之短期因果皆不存在;然而,其間「領先-落後」之長期因果卻因金融海嘯之發生而有所變化。
英文摘要 The aims of this research is to employ nonlinear methods of momentum-threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) and threshold error-correction model (TECM) elaborated by Enders and Granger (1998) and Enders and Siklos (2001) to investigate the nonlinear dynamic causal relationships between monetary policy and each of the two variables of misery index, inflation rate and unemployment rate during the subprime crisis period. For comparison, we divide the subprime crisis into two sub-period, pre- and under-, using the date of September 18, 2007, the first cut of the Federal fund rate from 5.25% to 4.75% by the chair of the FED (Bernanke), as the divider.
The first findings from the threshold cointegration is that no matter it is in the pre-crisis or the under-crisis period, they all show the existence of the asymmetric cointegration relationships between monetary policy and each of the two variables of misery index. For our model specification, with the exception that the relationships between monetary policy and the inflation rate during the under-crisis period is shown as TAR model, all others are shown as M-TAR models. Nonetheless, the threshold values are found to be -0.15872, -0.28000, -0.11493 and -0.14773 for the four models specified.
Finally, the overall findings from our TECM examination illustrate that monetary policy and each of the two variables of misery index do not show any short-run causal relation. However, for the long-run causal relation, the lead-lag relationships between monetary policy and inflation rate and between monetary policy and unemployment rate both changed from pre-crisis period to under-crisis period.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………1
第一節 研究背景……………………………………………………1
第二節 研究動機與目的……………………………………………5
第三節 研究架構與流程……………………………………………6
第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………9
第一節 貨幣政策與總體經濟關聯之文獻探討……………………9
第二節 失業率與通貨膨脹關聯之相關文獻……………………11
第三節 貨幣政策與失業率關聯之文獻探討………………………12
第四節 貨幣政策與通貨膨脹關聯之相關文獻……………………12
第三章 研究方法……………………………………………………14
第一節 單根檢定…………………………………………………14
第二節 門檻共整合檢定…………………………………………20
第三節 門檻誤差修正模型與Granger因果關係…………………23
第四章 實證結果與分析……………………………………………27
第一節 研究資料……………………………………………………27
第二節 單根檢定結果……………………………………………30
第三節 門檻共整合檢定結果……………………………………32
第四節 門檻錯誤差修正模型與Granger因果關係檢定結果……37
第五章 結論…………………………………………………………51
參考文獻…………………………………………………………………53
中文文獻……………………………………………………………… 53
英文文獻…………………………………………………………………53
目錄
表4-1-1 樣本資料數統計……………………………………………29
表4-2-1 ADF、PP、KPSS及NP單根檢定…………………………31
表4-3-1 金融海嘯前貨幣政策與物價模型選訂及非線性共整合測試( Enderas and Granger (1998) ) ……………………………33
表4-3-2 金融海嘯後貨幣政策與物價模型選訂及非線性共整合測試( Enderas and Granger (1998) ) ………………………34
表4-3-3 金融海嘯前貨幣政策與失業率模型選訂及非線性共整合測試( Enderas and Granger 1998) ) ……………35
表4-3-4 金融海嘯後貨幣政策與失業率模型選訂及非線性共整合測試( Enderas and Granger 1998) )………………………36
表4-4-1 海嘯前之貨幣政策與通膨率之門檻誤差修正模型因果關係檢定…...40
表4-4-2 海嘯後之貨幣政策與通膨率之門檻誤差修正模型因果關係檢定…...43
表4-4-3 海嘯前之貨幣政策與失業率之門檻誤差修正模型因果關係檢定…...46
表4-4-4 海嘯後之貨幣政策與失業率之門檻誤差修正模型因果關係檢定…...49
圖目錄
圖1-1 貨幣總計數成長率趨勢圖……………………………………………2
圖1-2 利率趨勢圖…………………………………………………………3
圖1-3 經濟成長率趨勢圖…………………………………………………4
圖1-4 痛苦指數趨勢圖……………………………………………………5
圖 1-5 研究流程………………………………………………………………8

參考文獻 中文文獻
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孫韋、鄭中華 (2010),「基于通貨膨脹預期的我國貨幣政策實證分析」,統計與決策,第10期,頁104-107。
趙俊豪 (2010),「貨幣政策與財政政策對物價的影響」,淡江大學財務金融學系碩士在職專班論文。
張尚學、申琳 (2009),「貨幣供應量與失業率關系的實證分析」,上海金融,第5期,頁37-40。

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