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系統識別號 U0002-1402201111205800
中文論文名稱 以非線性方法探討調整後淨資本額與期貨商財務績效之關聯-縱橫平滑移轉模型之應用
英文論文名稱 Nonlinear Analysis for the Effect of ANC on Financial Performance of Futures company – an Application of PSTR
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 99
學期 1
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 楊書禹
研究生英文姓名 Shu-Yu Yang
學號 797530200
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2010-12-27
論文頁數 45頁
口試委員 指導教授-聶建中
指導教授-謝劍平
委員-張春雄
委員-林景春
委員-李沃牆
中文關鍵字 調整後淨資本額  期貨商  縱橫平滑移轉回歸模型 
英文關鍵字 ANC  Futures Commission Merchants  Panel Smooth Transition Regression model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 有鑑於國內對期貨商調整後淨資本額的研究大多圍繞在風險的探討,而針對財務績效的研究探討較少,對於調整後淨資本額是否如同銀行的自有資本適足率對於財務績效有門檻效果存在,值得探討。因此本研究擬運用 , and (2004, 2005)所發展之縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型,探討調整後淨資本額規範對期貨商財務績效是否存在平滑移轉效果,使得調整後淨資本額規範對期貨商財務績效的影響呈現非線性之影響關係。藉此調整後淨資本額規範對期貨商財務績效平滑移轉效果之研究分析,期能夠提供期貨商財務績效提昇效果之策略建議。  
進行縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型之探究,本研究實證結果顯示,轉換函數之估計結果,在ANC比率為5.7329%時發生結構性變化,即產生一轉換區間,轉換速度為548.4963,表示ANC比率對稅後純益存在平滑移轉效果,惟其轉換速度極大,呈現跳躍式,如同Hansen的非線性門檻模型。
由小於門檻值及大於門檻值之ANC比率對稅後純益之各係數加總效果綜合分析。表徵期貨商規模的股本大小對稅後純益之影響由正向轉為負向,且皆呈現顯著,結果表示在ANC比率增加情況下,於下區間時,期貨商股本之增加將有效提升期貨商的財務績效;反之,於上區間時,應適切減少期貨商的股本,以防股本過大而侵蝕期貨商之財務績效。另外,觀察ANC比率亦同時作為控制變數之表現,實證發現ANC比率無論於門檻值之上或下區間,ANC比率對期貨商財務績效均呈現負向之影響關係,尤其於上區間之結果呈現顯著影響,其負向影響程度更為加劇。
英文摘要 The study on the adjusted net capital (ANC) of the domestic futures commission merchants focus more on the effect of ANC on the risk, but not on the financial performance. However, the question that is the ANC analogous to the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) having the threshold effect on bank’s financial performance is worth investigating. Therefore, this research employs panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR) elaborated by , and (2004, 2005) to investigate the nonlinear smooth transition effect of the ANC on the financial performance of the futures commission merchant. The results hopefully can be utilized as valuable reference to futures commission merchant’s strategy setup.
The result from our PSTR investigation shows that there exists a threshold value for the ANC at the rate of 5.7329% and the speed of transition with the slope of 548.4963 is nearly the Hansen’s (1999) nonlinear threshold model which jumps abruptly.
The overall analyses for the upper and lower regions are summarized as follows. We first find that the effect of the size on the earning for the futures commission merchants in Taiwan turns from positive to negative across the threshold value of ANC ratio at 5.7329% , both regions are shown to be significant. This implies that it’s better to increase the company size under the lower region and decrease it under the upper region in order to increase the financial performance for futures commission merchants. Moreover, when ANC ratio is also used as an explanatory variable, we empirically find that negative effects of the ANC ratio on the financial performance are shown under both the lower and upper regions. The negative impact of ANC ratio on financial performance is even worse and significant under the upper region.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1
  第一節 研究背景與動機--------------------------------------------------------------------1
  第二節 研究目的------------------------------------------------------------------------4
  第三節 研究架構------------------------------------------------------------------------4
第二章 文獻探討------------------------------------------------------------------------------6
  第一節 巴塞爾資本協定----------------------------------------------------------------6
  第二節 新巴塞爾資本協定---------------------------------------------------------------7
  第三節 調整後淨資本額規範對期貨商風險之影響探討---------------------------8
第四節 調整後淨資本額規範對期貨商財務績效之影響探討---------------------11
第五節 期貨商風險及期貨商財務績效之相關文獻探討 ---------------------------12
第六節 控制變數相關文獻探討 -------------------------------------------------14
第三章 研究方法------------------------------------------------------------------------------19
  第一節 研究資料 ……………………………………………………………19
  第二節 縱橫單根檢定 ………………………………………………………20
  第三節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型 ……………………………………………22
  第四節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型之設定 ……………………………………26
第四章 實證結果------------------------------------------------------------------------------31
  第一節 各變數之基本統計分析 ……………………………………………31
  第二節 縱橫單根檢定之實證結果 …………………………………………32
  第三節 一般線性OLS結果…………………………………………………33
第四節 ANC比率對期貨商財務績效之平滑移轉效果……………………35
第五章 結論-------------------------------------------------------------------------------39
參考文獻 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------41
表 目 錄
【表4-1-1】 各變數之基本統計量 31
【表4-2-1】 各變數原始序列之單根檢定 32
【表4-3-1】 期貨商經營績效之一般線性OLS之模型估計結果 33
【表4-4-1】  ANC比率對公司經營績效之同質性檢定 35
【表4-4-2】 ANC比率對公司經營績效之轉換區間個數檢定 36
【表4-4-3】 ANC比率對EARN之模型估計結果 36
【表4-4-4】 ANC比率對ERAN模型中解釋變數之影響 38
圖 目 錄
【圖1-3-1】 研究流程圖 5
【圖3-3-1】 m=1之轉換模型 25
【圖3-3-2】 m=2之轉換模型 25
【圖4-3-1】 股本對ERAN之OLS估計誤差圖 34
【圖4-4-1】 ANC比率對ERAN之轉換函數 37
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