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中文論文名稱 歐洲聯盟在亞太區域布局策略與挑戰-兼論對台灣之戰略意涵
英文論文名稱 EU Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region and its Challenges— Strategic Implications for Taiwan
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 歐洲研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of European Studies
學年度 107
學期 2
出版年 108
研究生中文姓名 李斯民
研究生英文姓名 Szu-min, LEE
學號 898290019
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2018-06-20
論文頁數 195頁
口試委員 指導教授-郭秋慶
委員-朱景鵬
委員-任耀庭
委員-蔡育岱
委員-廖揆祥
中文關鍵字 大戰略  自由貿易協定  柔性平衡  修昔底德陷阱 
英文關鍵字 grand strategy  FTA  soft balancing  Thucydides’ Trap 
學科別分類
中文摘要 近年亞太區域崛起,亞太區域經濟整合動能持續增強,自由貿易協定(FTA)作為各國重要經貿及外交政策工具,亦為經貿戰略甚或總體戰略重要一環,在亞太區域持續受到重視,並有「競爭自由化」現象。然而亞太區域各主要強權民族主義抬頭,時現緊張情勢,各主要國家加強整軍備戰,重視軍力建設與反制作為之剛性平衡措施,陷入「安全困境」,亞太地區似乎回到冷戰時期之氛圍。歐盟為非軍事性質之規範性強權(Normative Power),而台灣位居海陸強權交界緩衝之關鍵位置並有優質柔性實力,如何共同與其他理念相近國家合作,維持區域和平穩定與繁榮為當務之急。
本論文運用整合型分析方法,研析比較歐盟、美國與中國在亞太地區布局策略。隨著美中競合態勢增強(「印太戰略」V.S. 「一帶一路」),在貿易及科技等領域摩擦或將成為新常態。歐盟在亞太地區透過FTA加強布局,並於2016年提出「全球戰略」(global strategy),強調在亞太區域將加強經濟外交及對亞洲安全角色,進而於2018年制定「連結歐亞策略」(Europe-Asia Connectivity),該策略可視為歐盟面對中國「一帶一路」倡議及美、日、印、澳等國「印太戰略」之回應對策。
未來亞太地區之國際秩序將逐漸轉變為美、中、歐等強權共同主導之勢。美、中、歐三分天下,重構權力格局。三方均重視亞太市場及安全領域之佈局作為。崛起中之中國以及美中博弈情勢對歐盟及亞太區域國家則是機會與挑戰兼具,然而若美中博弈情勢惡化,將不利全球政經穩定與發展。美中之間倘相互敵意加深,有步入「修昔底德陷阱(Thucydide’s trap)」(既存強權與崛起強權發生爭戰)之可能,為爆發衝突之潛在根源。
相關各方倘能尊重並設法超越彼此歧異,親自由開放與永續聯結發展理念,採用具大戰略視野且有包容性與互惠特色之開放性戰略區域主義,遠零和思維之偏激民族主義及經貿保護主義,此亞太之所以可興隆也;反之,可能招來嚴重爭端甚至戰禍。
本文建議亞太國家應致力推動永續和平與發展大戰略,效法歐盟,跳脫中美對峙及兩岸對抗窠臼,以「非零和」(nonzero-sum)思維尋求在更大架構下化解各方矛盾。對於中小型國家而言,建構FTA網絡,如同建構無形的國家安全網絡。臺灣生存與發展取決於能否平衡並連結海洋與大陸勢力的利益,且將地緣戰略優勢極大化,建議推動「臺-日-韓-星-歐盟-印度 FTA/ECA」倡議(Rimland Chain Mega FTA),運用具和平戰略思維之「開放區域主義」,以FTA(ECA)加強連結與交流合作,支持善治與永續發展,發揮柔性平衡效果,協助化解區域爭端,調解強權間在貿易等議題之對立與相互抗衡作為,制約強權之武力運用,走向和解共生,進而建構調和及融合美、中、歐及相關各方願景與利益並有助全球治理之「印太-歐自由貿易區/共同體」,獲致權力平衡共治、利益均霑共享、價值共構共遵,走出「安全困境」,避免美中終將陷入「修昔底德陷阱」之「自我實現預言」(self-fulfilling prophecy)成真,共同追尋博拉圖的最適境界(Pareto optimality)。

英文摘要 The rise of the Asia-Pacific region through economic growth and gradual integration is of global significance and has made the region a new international center of gravity. However, a growing tide of anti-establishment populism, combined with nationalism and the security dilemmas posed by tensions between Chinese assertiveness and U.S. unilateralism, have created concerns among many countries in the region. The EU, regarded as a normative power and a strong advocate of global free trade and peace, could serve as an important and inspirational example in the region.
This dissertation synthesizes approaches in international relations to examine how the competition between China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the U.S. Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy has affected the EU and Taiwan, and how the EU and Taiwan could respond to these challenges.
As great power competition in the region intensifies through the U.S.-China trade war and tech war (in 5G and other areas), there is a real possibility of falling into Thucydides’ Trap, in which the current tensions between a rising and an existing power give way to more serious conflict. The growing trend in the region toward hedging strategies shows that attempts by the rising and dominant powers at co-opting other countries have created increasing unease.
One possible avenue out of this situation lies in facilitating the evolution of a grand strategy that forgoes a zero-sum mindset in favor of strategic open regionalism, which aims to preserve a peaceful status quo and minimize threats while reconciling and maximizing the interests of concerned parties.
The European Union (EU) is stepping up its support for regional integration and tends to utilize tools of economic diplomacy such as FTAs to pursue its strategic interests. In doing so, it may help to form a new regional balance of power. Following the adoption of the EU Global Strategy (EUGS) in 2016, the EU in 2018 announced its Europe-Asia Connectivity Strategy, which could serve as a counterweight to China’s BRI and the US FOIP strategy if the EU supplies it with the necessary resources. In short, the EU’s Europe-Asia Connectivity Strategy offers another option to Indo-Pacific countries amid increasingly fierce confrontation between the US and China.
Moreover, the EU and Taiwan, which holds a key geopolitical position in the region, are both praised for their soft power and could make potentially attractive strategic partners, working with other like-minded countries to form an alliance for peace and sustainable development. Such an alliance could spur soft balancing among regional powers, restrain geopolitical rivalries, and advance inclusive economic growth through the formation of FTA networks that support good governance and sustainable development.
Derived from the EU’s own integration experience, this grand strategy for the region would focus on strengthening regional architectures in order to reduce tensions and hostilities among big powers while accommodating and furthering the interests of all parties concerned. Realizing a strategic open regionalism which functions under the principles of reciprocity and inclusiveness to respect and transcend differences between political communities would promote sustainable development and peace, and benefit both stronger and weaker states in the region.
To accomplish this strategy, against the complex backdrop of triangular competition among the US, EU and China, this paper proposes the creation of a “Rimland Chain Mega FTA” consisting of Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, the EU and India, which would serve as a buffer zone and bridge encouraging soft balancing between the U.S. and China. Further steps could including the creation of an “Indo-Pacific-European Community” that could accommodate the interests and visions of both big and small powers, avoiding the self-fulfilling prophecy of Thucydides’ Trap and realizing Pareto optimality in the form of sustainable peace and development for all parties.

論文目次 目錄
目錄 VI
圖目錄 VIII
表目錄 IX
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究方法與研究途徑 4
第三節 文獻評析 9
第四節 名詞界定、研究範圍與研究限制 25
第五節 研究架構 30
第二章 亞太區域戰略環境及區域經濟整合動態 33
第一節 亞太區域戰略安全環境日趨複雜 35
第二節 影響歐盟布局之美國因素 37
第三節 影響歐盟布局之中國因素 44
第四節 亞太地區經濟整合進程 54
第三章 歐盟在亞太區域的戰略布局 57
第一節 歐盟在全球及亞太區域之身分與角色 57
第二節 歐盟在亞太地區政經政策之演變 59
第三節 歐盟與亞太地區整體關係 65
第四節 歐盟在亞太地區政經佈局之主要挑戰與因應對策 69
第四章 歐盟以自由貿易協定佈局達「柔性平衡」效果 75
第一節 歐盟與主要大國均重視雙邊或區域自由貿易協定 76
第二節 歐盟柔性平衡運作方式及其影響力 77
第三節 歐盟在亞太地區自由貿易協定布局 80
第四節 歐盟在亞太地區自由貿易協定布局之政經戰略意涵 83
第五節 歐盟經驗提供亞太區域整合之參考架構 86
第五章 針對歐盟及主要強權布局戰略之理論解析 89
第一節 從權力與安全利益論述 90
第二節 從制度與經貿利益論述 96
第三節 從認知與身分角色觀點論述 100
第四節 從大戰略觀點研析 106
第五節 從賽局理論及戰略三角觀點比較歐、美、中布局戰略 111
第六章 臺灣在美中歐亞太競合下之戰略選擇 123
第一節 臺灣位處海陸強權交界處之關鍵戰略地帶 123
第二節 臺灣在亞太地區之戰略布局 127
第三節 台灣與歐盟關係及其對亞太區域之意涵 130
第四節 臺海議題應避免陷入美中之間零和賽局之困境 136
第五節 規劃「臺-日-韓-星-印度-歐盟自由貿易協定/ECA」倡議 139
第六節 運用柔性實力與理念相近國家規劃永續和平發展大戰略 140
第七章 結論 149
第一節 主要研究發現 152
第二節 研究總結與政策建議 161
第三節 未來展望與研究建議 170
參考文獻 175
中文文獻 175
西文文獻 181
附錄 189





圖目錄
圖 1戰略評估概念圖 8
圖 2:印太戰略圖 40
圖 3:一帶一路路線圖 51
圖 4:戰略三角中的戰略關係 115
圖 5:歐、美、中現階段戰略三角關係 119
圖 6:臺灣戰略位置圖 124
圖 7:台灣臺灣與歐美中理想關係之戰略三角錐圖 145
圖 8:印太歐共同體概念圖 169

表目錄
表 1一帶一陸在歐洲地區布局進展(迄2019年5月) 52
表 2一帶一陸在歐洲以外其他地區布局進展 52
表 3美中歐在亞太地區戰略布局比較表 121

參考文獻 參考文獻
中文文獻
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張登及(2017),「川普訪陸後美中關係及對兩岸關係之影響」,展望與探索,15(12):1-6。
曹俊漢(2017),「〈書評:Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's. Trap?〉」,理論與政策,20(4):127-136。
許茵爾(2017),「美國參與區域經濟整合之轉折」,經濟前瞻,533(17):106-111。
黃美鳳(2015),「中國推動一帶一路與亞洲基礎設施投資銀行之戰略意涵」,戰略安全研析,118:4-12。
黃子庭(2011),「臺灣洽簽FTA的亞太經濟戰略:區域架構角色的觀點」,國際關係學報,31:81-108。
蔡育岱(2018),「美國推動印太戰略對臺灣新南向政策的影響與建議」,戰略安全研析,148:18-25。
鄭家慶(2018),「國際建置重塑下的歐中關係」,2017年展望與探索月刊時評文
集,展望與探索。
閻亢宗(2019),「冰上絲綢之路的中國夢」,2018年展望與探索月刊時評文集,展望與探索。
蘇卓馨(2018),「歐盟規範性權力在亞洲的試煉,以貿易議程為例」,全球政治評論,65:61。

三、網路
「布里辛斯基「大棋盤」中的台灣」,民報,<https://www.peoplenews.tw/news/da1c7fe9-4690-4ecc-9677-aa56e7b0fd11> (檢索日期: 2019年6月20日)。
「The Global Risks Report 2018」,世界論壇,<https://www.weforum.org/reports/%20the-%20global-risks-report>(檢索日期: 2018年1月20日)。
「出席玉山論壇 總統盼其成為常態化區域對話平臺」,中華民國總統府,<https://www.president.gov.tw/NEWS/21671> (檢索日期: 2017年2月2日)。
「台亞基金會成立 總統:新南向塑造台灣亞洲戰略」,中央通訊社,<https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/201808080167.aspx> (檢索日期: 2018年8月8日)。
「外交部感謝歐洲議會通過「共同外交暨安全政策年度執行報告決議支持台灣有意義參與國際組織」,中華民國外交部,<https://www.mofa.gov.tw/News-Content-M-2.aspx> (檢索日期: 2017年12月25日)。
「吳玉山:兩岸武統受五大因素制衡」,中國電子時報,<https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170911000517-260301> (檢索日期: 2017年9月12日)。
「阻止中國持續強大是不可能的事,更非明智之舉」新加坡總理李顯龍「香格里拉對話」演講全文」,風傳媒,<https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E9%98%BB%E6%AD%A2%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B....-083001050.html>(檢索日期: 2019年6月6日)。
「香港反送中示威抗議 英美領袖聲援」,聯合新聞網,<https://udn.com/news/story/120538/3868800> (檢索日期: 2019年6月13日)。
「推動共建絲綢之路經濟帶和21世紀海上絲綢之路的願景與行動」,中華人民共和國商務部綜合司,<http://zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/article/xxfb/201503/20150300926644.shtml> (檢索日期: 2017年3月6日)。
「歐洲議會通過決議案支持我參與國際組織」,中華民國外交部,<https://www.mofa.gov.tw/igo/News_Content.aspx?n=1D96AFE7C4FFE518&sms=D55831328E4E5B6D&s=9320CEFC48933111>(檢索日期: 2017年12月15日)。
「總統召開「對外經貿戰略會談」通過「新南向政策」政策綱領」,中華民國總統府,<https://www.president.gov.tw/NEWS/20639> (檢索日期: 2016年8月16日)。
李宗憲,「第二屆「一帶一路」高峰論壇在質疑聲浪中開幕」,BBC News,<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-48044005> (檢索日期: 2019年4月25日)。
林中斌,「臺灣的大戰略」,聯合報,<http://mypaper.pchome.com.tw/1626108/post/1323006301>(檢索日期: 2019年4月17日)。
風傳媒,「阻止中國持續強大是不可能的事更非明智之舉新加坡總理李顯龍香格里拉對話演講全文」,風傳媒,<https://www.storm.mg/article/1349993>(檢索日期: 2019年6月6日)。
郭秋慶,「挑戰中國一帶一路 歐盟出新招」,Yahoo論壇/淡江國際評論,<2018年6月29日<https://news.ltn.com.tw>https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E3%80%90yahoo%E8%AB%96%E5%A3%87%EF%BC%...-010033798.html > (檢索日期: 2018年7月1日)。
楊家鑫,「閻學通:2021年前 台海無戰爭危險」,中國時報電子報,<https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20171227000488-260118?chdtv>(檢索日期: 2017年12月27日)。
蔡浩祥,「吳玉山:兩岸武統受五大因素制衡」,中國時報電子報,<https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170911000517-260301?chdtv>(檢索日期: 2017年9月12日)。
蘇起,「名家縱論/美中貿易戰的背後」,聯合新聞網,<https://udn.com/news/story/11321/3821265> (檢索日期: 2019年5月19日)。
顏慶章,「一帶一路 已卡死中國1兆美元」,自由財經, <https://ec.ltn.com.tw/zhongwen/article/breakingnews/2807054> (檢索日期: 2019年6月20日)。


西文文獻
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三、網路
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