一年後，我們將迎接核不擴散條約橫越半世紀的時刻。在愛爾蘭、紐西蘭等國強力倡導核不擴散與核裁軍的誠心支持下，尤以核不擴散規範的成功，與促進核技術在醫療、農業、工業及研究的和平用途，使該條約已然演變為近乎普遍國際的制度。此外，除了定期的雙邊條約，聯合國大會也於 2016 年通過一項決議，開始就核裁軍法律的觀點框架進行談判，在此同時，有三種作為也持續削弱該制度的影響力：不遵守條約、策略性符合規範及蓄意不符合規範。
這項質性個案研究的目的在於（1）就制度而言，提出一門行為結果的類型學，對強調遵約凌駕其他的此項觀點予以糾正（2）透過國際制度與社會心理學理論，配合主體間性標準的應用，推論並排序優先影響遵守與符合核不擴散及裁軍制度的因素（3）藉由南韓、北韓與瑞典的個案分析，以過程追蹤的研究方法，探討因素的改變是如何並在何種情況下影響行為變化。以安全需求為導向的一派，欲改變核武擁有國的共同認知，而以人道主義一派的視角言之，則始終如一地鎖定焦點在武器本身。
有論點表示，核主觀主義扭曲了核武的觀感，也因此其旨在詆毀核武的共享認知，能於談判中發揮重要的影響力，同時有助勸服較客觀的觀點。經證據顯示，逐漸鞏固的規範與核技術應用於和平價值的削弱，卻無相應進展的裁軍作為，讓自主權喪失的擔憂與日俱增，並從而促使在鼓勵國家真正放棄核武的同時，卻增加策略性不遵守條約與不符合規範的負面影響，也因而造成爭論更為兩極。本研究強調核不擴散與核裁軍兩者蓬勃發展的至關重要性，並建議核武國家加入談判過程，防止進一步核擴散的風險。

In a year the world will celebrate half a century since the advent of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. With the genuine support of strong advocates of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, such as Ireland and New Zealand, the treaty has evolved into a nearly universal international regime with particular success in strengthening regulations in non-proliferation, and in the promotion of nuclear technologies for peaceful uses in medicine, agriculture, industry and research. Furthermore, in addition to periodical bilateral treaties, in 2016, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution to start negotiations on a legal framework for nuclear disarmament. At the same time, three types of behavior continue to erode the regime – one of non-compliance, one of strategic conformity, and one of overt non-conformity.
The aims of this qualitative case study are 1) to present a typology of behavioral outcomes in respect to institutions, so to rectify the predominant emphasis on compliance, 2) to deduce and prioritize factors affecting compliance with, and conformity to the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime from international regimes and social psychology theories by applying intersubjective criterion 3) to process-trace how changes in the factor influence change in behavior and under which circumstances drawing on the cases of South Korea, North Korea and Sweden. Security driven perception attempts to change the shared knowledge on nuclear weapons toward their possessors while the humanitarian perception aims to maintain the focus on the weapons themselves.  
It is argued that nuclear subjectivism has led to distorted perception of nuclear weapons and thus the shared knowledge structure by aiming to stigmatize nuclear weapons could provide an important leverage in negotiations and contribute to persuade a more objective view. The evidence suggests that gradual strengthening of regulations combined with the decreasing value of nuclear technology for peaceful uses and without corresponding progress in disarmament increase fear of loss of autonomy and consequently contribute negatively to the increase in strategic non-compliance and non-conformity while invigorating states genuinely renouncing nuclear weapons thus polarizing the debate. The research stresses the vital importance of dynamism in the development of both pillars non-proliferation and disarmament and recommends nuclear weapon states join the negotiation process or risk further proliferation.

Table of Contents
Acknowledgments                                                           i
Abstract                             	                                   ii
List of Tables                                                              vii
List of Figures                                                             viii
List of Acronyms                                                          ix

Chapter I Introduction                                                        1
1.0 Problem Statement                       .                                2
1.1 Purpose Statement                       .                                 9
1.2 Philosophical Approach                                                   10
1.2.1 Research Ontology - Conceptualization                                 11
1.2.1.1 International Institutions, Regimes, and Law                       11
1.2.1.2 Nuclear Renunciation, Compliance and Conformity                 15
1.2.1.2.1 Confusing Utility of Compliance and Conformity        16
1.2.1.2.2 Social Psychology Definitions                       21
1.2.1.2.3 Compliance and Conformity in the NPT               22
1.2.2 Research Epistemology- Critical Realism                               24
1.2.3 Research Methodology                                              26
1.2.3.1 Case Study Research Design                                   27
1.2.3.2 Analytic Eclecticism                                          30
1.2.3.3 Case Selection                                              32
1.2.3.4 Research Methods                                           33
1.2.3.4.1 Process Tracing                                        33
1.2.3.4.2 Congruence Testing                                    35
1.3 Scope and Limitations                                                    36 
1.4 Research Outline                                                       36

Chapter II Unpacking State Behavior - a Typology of Institutional Outcomes           38
2.0 International Regimes Literature on Compliance and Conformity                  40
2.0.1 Rationalism on Compliance and Conformity                             41
2.0.1.1 (Neo) Realism                                               42
2.0.1.2 Neoliberal Institutionalism                                     46
2.0.2 Constructivism on Compliance and Conformity                          47
2.1 Proposed Typology of Institutional Outcomes                                 53

Chapter III Factors and State Preferences                                        62
3.0 Rationalism and Factors Affecting State Preferences                            64
3.1 Constructivism and Factors Affecting State Preferences                          71
	3.1.1 Normative influence                                                72
	3.1.2 Information, socialization, persuasion and internalization                  73
3.2 Factors and actors' preferences                                             75
3.2.1 Actors' preferences                                                 75 
3.2.2 Domestic factors affecting behaviour                                  77
3.2.3. Domestic factors affecting perception and beliefs                        78
3.3 Factors selection                                                         80
Chapter IV Theoretical Framework and Case Selection Rationale                     83
4.0 Literature review on nuclear proliferation constraints                            83
4.1 Proposed Eclectic Approach                                               89
4.2 Hypotheses and case selection                                              91

Chapter V Shifts in Shared Knowledge Structure on Nuclear Power                   95
5.0 Nuclear energy – from object of security to self-destruction                      95
5.1 The indefinite extension of the regime                                      101
5.2 Analysis                                                              110

Chapter VI South Korea (Actor A) and the NPT/IAEA                            114 
6.0 South Korea's Nuclear Perception and Policy                                 114
6.0.1 Initiation and Independence 1956-1974                                114
6.0.2 Strategic conformity 1975-2003                                      117
6.0.3 Re-socialized strategic conformity – renewed push for nuclear autonomy     120
6.1 Analysis                                                              123
6.1.1 Nuclear Subjectivism – keeping the option open                         123
6.1.2 Knowledge Structure Effects                                        127

Chapter VII North Korea (Actor B) and the NPT/IAEA                            129 
7.0 North Korea's Nuclear Perception and Policy                                 129
7.0.1 Perception building and move towards indigenous development 1956-1974   129
7.0.2 Shift towards strategic conformity/strategic non-compliance 1975-2003      131
7.0.3 Nuclear independence - 2004-present                                 133
7.1 Analysis                                                              136
7.1.1 Building nuclear weapons perception                                 136
7.1.2 Knowledge Structure Effects                                        137
Chapter VIII Sweden (Actor C) and the NPT/IAEA                               140
8.0 The “White Knights”                                                  140
8.1 Sweden's Nuclear Perception and Policy                               142
8.1.1 Perception building and move towards indigenous development 1945-1961  142
8.1.2 Sweden’s role in development of international consensus 1962-1968         144 8.1.3 Genuine nuclear renunciation 1969-present                             145
8.2 Analysis                                                              147
8.2.1 Nuclear Subjectivism – rationalization of behavior                       147
8.2.2 The NPT and genuine nuclear weapons renunciation                     148

Chapter IX Conclusion and Recommendations                                  150
9.0 Shifts in knowledge structure                                        152
9.1 Nuclear subjectivism and influence from changes in the shared knowledge     153
	9.1.1 South Korea                                              153
9.1.2 North Korea                                                 155
9.1.3 Sweden                                                    156
9.2 Overall conclusion, theoretical implications and recommendations            157

Appendix I Knowledge structure developments timeline                           179
Appendix II South Korea's timeline                                            188
Appendix III North Korea's timeline                                           192
Appendix IV Sweden’s timeline                                              200
Bibliography                                                             159
 
List of Tables

Table 1.1 Understanding of compliance and conformity                             19
Table 2.1 Types of compliance                                                49
Table 2.2 Typology of institutional outcomes                                     57
Table 2.3 Cases of strategic non-compliance with the NPT                          61
Table 3.1 Chronology of safeguards and controls development 1960-2016              67
Table 3.3 Factors and conditions under which conformity takes place                  72
Table 5.1 Latest NWS' nuclear weapon policies                                  105
Table 5.2 Some UN Resolutions on nuclear weapons 2000-2016                     105
Table 5.3 Conferences of the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons Initiative       107
Table 5.4 Resolutions of the International Red Cross after 2010                     108
Table 5.5 Joint Statements on the Humanitarian Impacts of Nuclear Weapons          108
Table 5.6 Overview of the prohibition debate                                    110
Table 6.1 UNGAR and ROK’s vote, 2001-2017                                  122
Table 7.1 UNGAR and DPRK’s vote, 2001-2017                                 135
Table 7.1 UNGAR and Sweden’s vote, 2001-2017                                146

 
List of Figures

Figure 1.1 NPT at glance                                               2
Figure 1.2 Key Concept Use, I 1950-2016                                 16
Figure 1.2 Key Concept Use, II 1950-2016                                16
Figure 1.2 Key Concept Use, III 1950-2016                               17
Figure 1.5 Rational vs irrational, individual vs collective choice                26
Figure 1.6 Case Study Research Design                                  28
Figure 2.1 Existing hypotheses for achievement of higher effectiveness          53
Figure 2.2 Typology of institutional outcomes                              54
Figure 2.3 Changing focus towards outcome                              55
Figure 2.4 Process of socialization and outcomes                            56
Figure 3.1 Factors and mechanisms affecting state behavior within institutions          62
Figure 3.2 Funding of the IAEA: Safeguards vs. TCF                           65
Figure 3.3 Safeguards implementation, 1970-2016                                66
Figure 3.4 NWS’ progress in disarmament                                      66
Figure 3.5 Number of concluded safeguard agreements                          70
Figure 3.6 States nuclear weapon preferences                                   76
Figure 4.1 Theory review on non-proliferation/ level of rationalism/ level of analysis     83
Figure 4.2 Change in shared knowledge based on NPT membership and UNGAR voting  88
Figure 4.3 Theoretical approaches and actor’s perception                90
Figure 4.4 Case selection and hypotheses                                        93
Figure 5.1 Shifts in the knowledge structure on nuclear weapons, 1945-2016            95 
Figure 5.2 Nuclear reactor construction starts, 1954-2014                           99
Figure 5.3 Nuclear reactors connected to grid worldwide, 1954-2014                 100
Figure 5.4 Horizontal diffusion of nuclear energy for PU, 1954-2015                 100

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