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系統識別號 U0002-1306201715002400
中文論文名稱 國際制度與國家行為:不擴散核武器條約對於瑞典、南韓與北韓的行為影響之案例研究
英文論文名稱 International Institutions and State Behavior: A Case Study of the Influence of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons on Sweden, South Korea, and North Korea’s Compliance and Conformity
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 105
學期 2
出版年 106
研究生中文姓名 森亞博
研究生英文姓名 Yavor Kostadinov
電子信箱 yavorbg@gmail.com
學號 802330315
學位類別 博士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2017-06-05
論文頁數 201頁
口試委員 指導教授-李大中
委員-陳一新
委員-莫大華
委員-劉廣華
委員-高佩珊
委員-李大中
中文關鍵字 國際制度  核不擴散  核裁軍  遵守條約  符合規範 
英文關鍵字 International regimes  Nuclear non-proliferation  nuclear disarmament  compliance  conformity 
學科別分類
中文摘要 一年後,我們將迎接核不擴散條約橫越半世紀的時刻。在愛爾蘭、紐西蘭等國強力倡導核不擴散與核裁軍的誠心支持下,尤以核不擴散規範的成功,與促進核技術在醫療、農業、工業及研究的和平用途,使該條約已然演變為近乎普遍國際的制度。此外,除了定期的雙邊條約,聯合國大會也於 2016 年通過一項決議,開始就核裁軍法律的觀點框架進行談判,在此同時,有三種作為也持續削弱該制度的影響力:不遵守條約、策略性符合規範及蓄意不符合規範。
這項質性個案研究的目的在於(1)就制度而言,提出一門行為結果的類型學,對強調遵約凌駕其他的此項觀點予以糾正(2)透過國際制度與社會心理學理論,配合主體間性標準的應用,推論並排序優先影響遵守與符合核不擴散及裁軍制度的因素(3)藉由南韓、北韓與瑞典的個案分析,以過程追蹤的研究方法,探討因素的改變是如何並在何種情況下影響行為變化。以安全需求為導向的一派,欲改變核武擁有國的共同認知,而以人道主義一派的視角言之,則始終如一地鎖定焦點在武器本身。
有論點表示,核主觀主義扭曲了核武的觀感,也因此其旨在詆毀核武的共享認知,能於談判中發揮重要的影響力,同時有助勸服較客觀的觀點。經證據顯示,逐漸鞏固的規範與核技術應用於和平價值的削弱,卻無相應進展的裁軍作為,讓自主權喪失的擔憂與日俱增,並從而促使在鼓勵國家真正放棄核武的同時,卻增加策略性不遵守條約與不符合規範的負面影響,也因而造成爭論更為兩極。本研究強調核不擴散與核裁軍兩者蓬勃發展的至關重要性,並建議核武國家加入談判過程,防止進一步核擴散的風險。
英文摘要 In a year the world will celebrate half a century since the advent of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. With the genuine support of strong advocates of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, such as Ireland and New Zealand, the treaty has evolved into a nearly universal international regime with particular success in strengthening regulations in non-proliferation, and in the promotion of nuclear technologies for peaceful uses in medicine, agriculture, industry and research. Furthermore, in addition to periodical bilateral treaties, in 2016, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution to start negotiations on a legal framework for nuclear disarmament. At the same time, three types of behavior continue to erode the regime – one of non-compliance, one of strategic conformity, and one of overt non-conformity.
The aims of this qualitative case study are 1) to present a typology of behavioral outcomes in respect to institutions, so to rectify the predominant emphasis on compliance, 2) to deduce and prioritize factors affecting compliance with, and conformity to the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime from international regimes and social psychology theories by applying intersubjective criterion 3) to process-trace how changes in the factor influence change in behavior and under which circumstances drawing on the cases of South Korea, North Korea and Sweden. Security driven perception attempts to change the shared knowledge on nuclear weapons toward their possessors while the humanitarian perception aims to maintain the focus on the weapons themselves.
It is argued that nuclear subjectivism has led to distorted perception of nuclear weapons and thus the shared knowledge structure by aiming to stigmatize nuclear weapons could provide an important leverage in negotiations and contribute to persuade a more objective view. The evidence suggests that gradual strengthening of regulations combined with the decreasing value of nuclear technology for peaceful uses and without corresponding progress in disarmament increase fear of loss of autonomy and consequently contribute negatively to the increase in strategic non-compliance and non-conformity while invigorating states genuinely renouncing nuclear weapons thus polarizing the debate. The research stresses the vital importance of dynamism in the development of both pillars non-proliferation and disarmament and recommends nuclear weapon states join the negotiation process or risk further proliferation.
論文目次 Table of Contents
Acknowledgments i
Abstract ii
List of Tables vii
List of Figures viii
List of Acronyms ix

Chapter I Introduction 1
1.0 Problem Statement . 2
1.1 Purpose Statement . 9
1.2 Philosophical Approach 10
1.2.1 Research Ontology - Conceptualization 11
1.2.1.1 International Institutions, Regimes, and Law 11
1.2.1.2 Nuclear Renunciation, Compliance and Conformity 15
1.2.1.2.1 Confusing Utility of Compliance and Conformity 16
1.2.1.2.2 Social Psychology Definitions 21
1.2.1.2.3 Compliance and Conformity in the NPT 22
1.2.2 Research Epistemology- Critical Realism 24
1.2.3 Research Methodology 26
1.2.3.1 Case Study Research Design 27
1.2.3.2 Analytic Eclecticism 30
1.2.3.3 Case Selection 32
1.2.3.4 Research Methods 33
1.2.3.4.1 Process Tracing 33
1.2.3.4.2 Congruence Testing 35
1.3 Scope and Limitations 36
1.4 Research Outline 36

Chapter II Unpacking State Behavior - a Typology of Institutional Outcomes 38
2.0 International Regimes Literature on Compliance and Conformity 40
2.0.1 Rationalism on Compliance and Conformity 41
2.0.1.1 (Neo) Realism 42
2.0.1.2 Neoliberal Institutionalism 46
2.0.2 Constructivism on Compliance and Conformity 47
2.1 Proposed Typology of Institutional Outcomes 53

Chapter III Factors and State Preferences 62
3.0 Rationalism and Factors Affecting State Preferences 64
3.1 Constructivism and Factors Affecting State Preferences 71
3.1.1 Normative influence 72
3.1.2 Information, socialization, persuasion and internalization 73
3.2 Factors and actors' preferences 75
3.2.1 Actors' preferences 75
3.2.2 Domestic factors affecting behaviour 77
3.2.3. Domestic factors affecting perception and beliefs 78
3.3 Factors selection 80
Chapter IV Theoretical Framework and Case Selection Rationale 83
4.0 Literature review on nuclear proliferation constraints 83
4.1 Proposed Eclectic Approach 89
4.2 Hypotheses and case selection 91

Chapter V Shifts in Shared Knowledge Structure on Nuclear Power 95
5.0 Nuclear energy – from object of security to self-destruction 95
5.1 The indefinite extension of the regime 101
5.2 Analysis 110

Chapter VI South Korea (Actor A) and the NPT/IAEA 114
6.0 South Korea's Nuclear Perception and Policy 114
6.0.1 Initiation and Independence 1956-1974 114
6.0.2 Strategic conformity 1975-2003 117
6.0.3 Re-socialized strategic conformity – renewed push for nuclear autonomy 120
6.1 Analysis 123
6.1.1 Nuclear Subjectivism – keeping the option open 123
6.1.2 Knowledge Structure Effects 127

Chapter VII North Korea (Actor B) and the NPT/IAEA 129
7.0 North Korea's Nuclear Perception and Policy 129
7.0.1 Perception building and move towards indigenous development 1956-1974 129
7.0.2 Shift towards strategic conformity/strategic non-compliance 1975-2003 131
7.0.3 Nuclear independence - 2004-present 133
7.1 Analysis 136
7.1.1 Building nuclear weapons perception 136
7.1.2 Knowledge Structure Effects 137
Chapter VIII Sweden (Actor C) and the NPT/IAEA 140
8.0 The “White Knights” 140
8.1 Sweden's Nuclear Perception and Policy 142
8.1.1 Perception building and move towards indigenous development 1945-1961 142
8.1.2 Sweden’s role in development of international consensus 1962-1968 144 8.1.3 Genuine nuclear renunciation 1969-present 145
8.2 Analysis 147
8.2.1 Nuclear Subjectivism – rationalization of behavior 147
8.2.2 The NPT and genuine nuclear weapons renunciation 148

Chapter IX Conclusion and Recommendations 150
9.0 Shifts in knowledge structure 152
9.1 Nuclear subjectivism and influence from changes in the shared knowledge 153
9.1.1 South Korea 153
9.1.2 North Korea 155
9.1.3 Sweden 156
9.2 Overall conclusion, theoretical implications and recommendations 157

Appendix I Knowledge structure developments timeline 179
Appendix II South Korea's timeline 188
Appendix III North Korea's timeline 192
Appendix IV Sweden’s timeline 200
Bibliography 159

List of Tables

Table 1.1 Understanding of compliance and conformity 19
Table 2.1 Types of compliance 49
Table 2.2 Typology of institutional outcomes 57
Table 2.3 Cases of strategic non-compliance with the NPT 61
Table 3.1 Chronology of safeguards and controls development 1960-2016 67
Table 3.3 Factors and conditions under which conformity takes place 72
Table 5.1 Latest NWS' nuclear weapon policies 105
Table 5.2 Some UN Resolutions on nuclear weapons 2000-2016 105
Table 5.3 Conferences of the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons Initiative 107
Table 5.4 Resolutions of the International Red Cross after 2010 108
Table 5.5 Joint Statements on the Humanitarian Impacts of Nuclear Weapons 108
Table 5.6 Overview of the prohibition debate 110
Table 6.1 UNGAR and ROK’s vote, 2001-2017 122
Table 7.1 UNGAR and DPRK’s vote, 2001-2017 135
Table 7.1 UNGAR and Sweden’s vote, 2001-2017 146


List of Figures

Figure 1.1 NPT at glance 2
Figure 1.2 Key Concept Use, I 1950-2016 16
Figure 1.2 Key Concept Use, II 1950-2016 16
Figure 1.2 Key Concept Use, III 1950-2016 17
Figure 1.5 Rational vs irrational, individual vs collective choice 26
Figure 1.6 Case Study Research Design 28
Figure 2.1 Existing hypotheses for achievement of higher effectiveness 53
Figure 2.2 Typology of institutional outcomes 54
Figure 2.3 Changing focus towards outcome 55
Figure 2.4 Process of socialization and outcomes 56
Figure 3.1 Factors and mechanisms affecting state behavior within institutions 62
Figure 3.2 Funding of the IAEA: Safeguards vs. TCF 65
Figure 3.3 Safeguards implementation, 1970-2016 66
Figure 3.4 NWS’ progress in disarmament 66
Figure 3.5 Number of concluded safeguard agreements 70
Figure 3.6 States nuclear weapon preferences 76
Figure 4.1 Theory review on non-proliferation/ level of rationalism/ level of analysis 83
Figure 4.2 Change in shared knowledge based on NPT membership and UNGAR voting 88
Figure 4.3 Theoretical approaches and actor’s perception 90
Figure 4.4 Case selection and hypotheses 93
Figure 5.1 Shifts in the knowledge structure on nuclear weapons, 1945-2016 95
Figure 5.2 Nuclear reactor construction starts, 1954-2014 99
Figure 5.3 Nuclear reactors connected to grid worldwide, 1954-2014 100
Figure 5.4 Horizontal diffusion of nuclear energy for PU, 1954-2015 100
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Journal Articles
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Barker, Andy, Clive Nancarrow and Nigel Spackman. "Informed Eclecticism: a Research Paradigm for the Twenty-First Century." International Journal of Market Research 43, no.1 (2001): 3-27.
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Bhaskar, Roy. "On the Possibility of Social Scientific Knowledge and the Limits of Naturalism." Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 8, no.1 (1978), 1-28.
Bolt, Bowden, Chengetai Mbanje and Darlington Ngoni Mahuku. "The Effectiveness of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in Curbing Iran's Nuclear Programme: A Critical Analysis," GSTF Journal of Law and Social Sciences 1, no.1 (2012): 14-19. Accessed August 1, 2016, doi: 10.5176_2251-2853_1.1.3.
Brouard, Sylvain and Isabelle Guinaudeau. "Policy beyond Politics? Public Opinion, Party Politics and the French Pro-nuclear Energy Policy." Journal of Public Policy 35, no. 01 (April 2015): 137 - 170. Accessed June 30, 2016, doi: 10.1017/S0143814X14000221.
Chayes, Abram and Antonia Handler Chayes. "On Compliance." International Organization 47, no. 2 (Spring, 1993): 175-205.
Cialdini, Robert B. "Crafting Normative Messages to Protect the Environment." American Psychological Society 12, no. 4 (August 2003): 105-109.
Cialdini, Robert B. and Noah J. Goldstein. "Social Influence: Compliance and Conformity." Annual Review of Psychology 55 (2004): 591–621. Accessed March 12, 2015, doi: 10.1146/annurev.psych.55.090902.142015.
Codol, Jean-Paul. "On the So-called ’Superior Conformity of the Self’ Behavior: Twenty Experimental Investigations," European Journal of Social Psychology 5, no. 4 (October/December 1975): 457-501. Accessed July 4, 2016, doi: 10.1002/ejsp.2420050404.
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Dolinski, Dariusz and Richard Nawrat. “Fear-Then-Relief” Procedure for Producing Compliance: Beware When the Danger Is Over." Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 34, no. 1, (January 1998): 27–50. Accessed June 15, 2016, doi:10.1006/jesp.1997.1341.
Dong, Daniel Jung and Harold Eyster. "How Does Nuclear Energy Work?." Harvard College Review of Environment & Society (Spring 2015): 5-8.
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Elman, Colin. "Explanatory Typologies in Qualitative Studies of International Politics." International Organization 59, no. 02 (April 2005): 293-326. Accessed July 10, 2016, doi: 10.1017/S0020818305050101.
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Fotopoulos, Takis. "The Rise of New Irrationalism and Its Incompatibility with Inclusive Democracy." Democracy and Nature 4, no. 2/3 (November/December 1998). Accessed July 17, 2016, http://www.democracynature.org/vol4/vol4_no2-3_1998.htm.
Freedman, Jonathan L. and Scott C. Fraser. "Compliance without Pressure: The Foot-in-the-Door Technique." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 4, no. 2 (1966): 155-202.
Fuhrmann, Matthew and Yonatan Lupu. "Do Arms Control Treaties Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty." International Studies Quarterly (May 2016). Accessed July 25, 2016, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqw013.
Goldmann, Kjell. "Appropriateness and Consequences: The Logic of Neo-Institutionalism." Governance: An International Journal of Policy, Administration, and Institutions 18, no. 1 (January 2005): 35–52.
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Grieco, Joseph M., Christopher F. Gelpi and Warren T. Camber. "When Preferences and Commitments Collide: The Effect of Relative Partisan Shifts on International Treaty Compliance." International Organization 63 (Spring 2009): 341-55. Accessed July 11, 2016, doi: 10.1017/S0020818309090110.
Ha, Young-sun. "Nuclearization of Small States and World Order: The Case of Korea." Asian Survey 18, no. 11 (Nov., 1978): 1134-151. Accessed April 18, 2015, http://www.jstor.org/stable/2643297.
Habermas, Jürgen, "Some Distinctions in Universal Pragmatics: A Working Paper." Theory and Society 3, no. 2 (Summer 1976): 155-167. Accessed July 25, 2016, http://www.jstor.org/stable/656844.
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Hathaway, Oona A. "Do Human Rights Treaties Make a Difference?." The Yale Law Journal 111 (April 2002): 1935-2042.
Helm, Carsten and Detlef Sprinz. "Measuring the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes." Journal of Conflict Resolution 44, no. 5 (October 2000): 630-652. Accessed August 1, 2016, http://www.uni-potsdam.de/u/sprinz/doc/Sprinz_Helm2000.pdf.
Hovi, Jon, Detlef F. Sprinz, and Arild Underdal. "The Oslo-Potsdam Solution to Measuring Regime Effectiveness: Critique, Response, and the Road Ahead." Global Environmental Politics 3, no. 3 (August 2003): 74-96.
Jo, Dong-Joon and Erik Gartzke. "Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation," The Journal of Conflict Resolution (February 2007): 167 - 194.
Jugert, Philipp, Christopher Cohrs and John Duckit. "Inter- and Intrapersonal Processes Underlying Authoritarianism: The Role of Social Conformity and Personal Need for Structure." European Journal of Personality 23 (2009), : 607–621. Accessed June 21, 2016, doi: 10.1002/per.735.
Kassenova, Togzhan. "Kazakhstan and the Global Nuclear Order." Central Asian Affairs 1 (2014).
Kingsbury, Benedict. "The Concept of Compliance as a Function of Competing Conceptions of International Law." Michigan Journal of International Law 19, no. 2 (Winter 1998): 345-72, http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5583&context=faculty_scholarship.
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Lantis, Jeffrey S. "Nonproliferation and Norm Discourse: An Agentic Constructivist Model of U.S. Nuclear Export Policy Changes." Politics & Policy 44, no. 2 (2016): 220-260. Accessed July 15, 2016, doi: 10.1111/polp.12153.
-------------------- "Nuclear Technology and Norm Stewardship: US Nonproliferation Policies Revisited." International Studies Perspectives16 (2015): 423–445.
Lee, Yueh-Hua and Chu-Ching Wang. "Factors Influence the Fate of Nuclear Energy in Taiwan: The Roles of Risks and Benefits Perception." Journal of Environment and Human 1, no. 1 (March 2014): 36-45.
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Others (Documents, Reports, News articles, Conference papers, PhD theses etc.)
Acheson, Ray, ed. Assuring Destruction Forever: Nuclear Weapon Modernization around the World. Reaching Critical Will of the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom, 2012. Accessed July 21, 2016, http://reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Publications/modernization/assuring-destruction-forever.pdf.
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Al-Assad, Wael. "A Different Point of View on Reform of the Nonproliferation Regime." 42-45. Cambridge: American Academy of Arts and Science, 2012.
Bicchieri, Cristina and Ryan Muldoon. "Social Norms." In The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, edited by Edward N. Zalta (Spring 2014), http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2014/entries/social-norms/.
Bergenäs, Johan. "The Rise of a White Knight State: Sweden's Nonproliferation and Disarmament History." Nuclear Threat Initiative, February 10, 2010. Accessed August 10, 2016, http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/swedens-nonproliferation-history/.
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Burr, William and Jeffrey Kimball, eds. "Nixon White House Considered Nuclear Options Against North Vietnam, Declassified Documents Reveal Nuclear Weapons, the Vietnam War, and the 'Nuclear Taboo'." US National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book no. 195 (2006). Accessed June 2, 2015, http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB195.
Carlson, John and Russell Leslie. "Nuclear Non-Proliferation: The Role of Complimentary Regimes." Paper presented at the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management Annual Meeting, Orlando, USA, July 23-7, 2002: 1-8.
Carter, Jimmy. "Israel 'has 150 nuclear weapons'." BBC, May 26, 2008. Accessed January 13, 2017, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7420573.stm.
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Mwanza, Iris. "How Nations Misbehave: Compliance with Human Rights Treaties in Commonwealth Africa." Ph.D. thesis (Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, 2002) UMI no.: 3069756.
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