||International Institutions and State Behavior: A Case Study of the Influence of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons on Sweden, South Korea, and North Korea’s Compliance and Conformity
||Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
||一年後，我們將迎接核不擴散條約橫越半世紀的時刻。在愛爾蘭、紐西蘭等國強力倡導核不擴散與核裁軍的誠心支持下，尤以核不擴散規範的成功，與促進核技術在醫療、農業、工業及研究的和平用途，使該條約已然演變為近乎普遍國際的制度。此外，除了定期的雙邊條約，聯合國大會也於 2016 年通過一項決議，開始就核裁軍法律的觀點框架進行談判，在此同時，有三種作為也持續削弱該制度的影響力：不遵守條約、策略性符合規範及蓄意不符合規範。
||In a year the world will celebrate half a century since the advent of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. With the genuine support of strong advocates of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, such as Ireland and New Zealand, the treaty has evolved into a nearly universal international regime with particular success in strengthening regulations in non-proliferation, and in the promotion of nuclear technologies for peaceful uses in medicine, agriculture, industry and research. Furthermore, in addition to periodical bilateral treaties, in 2016, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution to start negotiations on a legal framework for nuclear disarmament. At the same time, three types of behavior continue to erode the regime – one of non-compliance, one of strategic conformity, and one of overt non-conformity.
The aims of this qualitative case study are 1) to present a typology of behavioral outcomes in respect to institutions, so to rectify the predominant emphasis on compliance, 2) to deduce and prioritize factors affecting compliance with, and conformity to the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime from international regimes and social psychology theories by applying intersubjective criterion 3) to process-trace how changes in the factor influence change in behavior and under which circumstances drawing on the cases of South Korea, North Korea and Sweden. Security driven perception attempts to change the shared knowledge on nuclear weapons toward their possessors while the humanitarian perception aims to maintain the focus on the weapons themselves.
It is argued that nuclear subjectivism has led to distorted perception of nuclear weapons and thus the shared knowledge structure by aiming to stigmatize nuclear weapons could provide an important leverage in negotiations and contribute to persuade a more objective view. The evidence suggests that gradual strengthening of regulations combined with the decreasing value of nuclear technology for peaceful uses and without corresponding progress in disarmament increase fear of loss of autonomy and consequently contribute negatively to the increase in strategic non-compliance and non-conformity while invigorating states genuinely renouncing nuclear weapons thus polarizing the debate. The research stresses the vital importance of dynamism in the development of both pillars non-proliferation and disarmament and recommends nuclear weapon states join the negotiation process or risk further proliferation.
||Table of Contents
List of Tables vii
List of Figures viii
List of Acronyms ix
Chapter I Introduction 1
1.0 Problem Statement . 2
1.1 Purpose Statement . 9
1.2 Philosophical Approach 10
1.2.1 Research Ontology - Conceptualization 11
18.104.22.168 International Institutions, Regimes, and Law 11
22.214.171.124 Nuclear Renunciation, Compliance and Conformity 15
126.96.36.199.1 Confusing Utility of Compliance and Conformity 16
188.8.131.52.2 Social Psychology Definitions 21
184.108.40.206.3 Compliance and Conformity in the NPT 22
1.2.2 Research Epistemology- Critical Realism 24
1.2.3 Research Methodology 26
220.127.116.11 Case Study Research Design 27
18.104.22.168 Analytic Eclecticism 30
22.214.171.124 Case Selection 32
126.96.36.199 Research Methods 33
188.8.131.52.1 Process Tracing 33
184.108.40.206.2 Congruence Testing 35
1.3 Scope and Limitations 36
1.4 Research Outline 36
Chapter II Unpacking State Behavior - a Typology of Institutional Outcomes 38
2.0 International Regimes Literature on Compliance and Conformity 40
2.0.1 Rationalism on Compliance and Conformity 41
220.127.116.11 (Neo) Realism 42
18.104.22.168 Neoliberal Institutionalism 46
2.0.2 Constructivism on Compliance and Conformity 47
2.1 Proposed Typology of Institutional Outcomes 53
Chapter III Factors and State Preferences 62
3.0 Rationalism and Factors Affecting State Preferences 64
3.1 Constructivism and Factors Affecting State Preferences 71
3.1.1 Normative influence 72
3.1.2 Information, socialization, persuasion and internalization 73
3.2 Factors and actors' preferences 75
3.2.1 Actors' preferences 75
3.2.2 Domestic factors affecting behaviour 77
3.2.3. Domestic factors affecting perception and beliefs 78
3.3 Factors selection 80
Chapter IV Theoretical Framework and Case Selection Rationale 83
4.0 Literature review on nuclear proliferation constraints 83
4.1 Proposed Eclectic Approach 89
4.2 Hypotheses and case selection 91
Chapter V Shifts in Shared Knowledge Structure on Nuclear Power 95
5.0 Nuclear energy – from object of security to self-destruction 95
5.1 The indefinite extension of the regime 101
5.2 Analysis 110
Chapter VI South Korea (Actor A) and the NPT/IAEA 114
6.0 South Korea's Nuclear Perception and Policy 114
6.0.1 Initiation and Independence 1956-1974 114
6.0.2 Strategic conformity 1975-2003 117
6.0.3 Re-socialized strategic conformity – renewed push for nuclear autonomy 120
6.1 Analysis 123
6.1.1 Nuclear Subjectivism – keeping the option open 123
6.1.2 Knowledge Structure Effects 127
Chapter VII North Korea (Actor B) and the NPT/IAEA 129
7.0 North Korea's Nuclear Perception and Policy 129
7.0.1 Perception building and move towards indigenous development 1956-1974 129
7.0.2 Shift towards strategic conformity/strategic non-compliance 1975-2003 131
7.0.3 Nuclear independence - 2004-present 133
7.1 Analysis 136
7.1.1 Building nuclear weapons perception 136
7.1.2 Knowledge Structure Effects 137
Chapter VIII Sweden (Actor C) and the NPT/IAEA 140
8.0 The “White Knights” 140
8.1 Sweden's Nuclear Perception and Policy 142
8.1.1 Perception building and move towards indigenous development 1945-1961 142
8.1.2 Sweden’s role in development of international consensus 1962-1968 144 8.1.3 Genuine nuclear renunciation 1969-present 145
8.2 Analysis 147
8.2.1 Nuclear Subjectivism – rationalization of behavior 147
8.2.2 The NPT and genuine nuclear weapons renunciation 148
Chapter IX Conclusion and Recommendations 150
9.0 Shifts in knowledge structure 152
9.1 Nuclear subjectivism and influence from changes in the shared knowledge 153
9.1.1 South Korea 153
9.1.2 North Korea 155
9.1.3 Sweden 156
9.2 Overall conclusion, theoretical implications and recommendations 157
Appendix I Knowledge structure developments timeline 179
Appendix II South Korea's timeline 188
Appendix III North Korea's timeline 192
Appendix IV Sweden’s timeline 200
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Understanding of compliance and conformity 19
Table 2.1 Types of compliance 49
Table 2.2 Typology of institutional outcomes 57
Table 2.3 Cases of strategic non-compliance with the NPT 61
Table 3.1 Chronology of safeguards and controls development 1960-2016 67
Table 3.3 Factors and conditions under which conformity takes place 72
Table 5.1 Latest NWS' nuclear weapon policies 105
Table 5.2 Some UN Resolutions on nuclear weapons 2000-2016 105
Table 5.3 Conferences of the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons Initiative 107
Table 5.4 Resolutions of the International Red Cross after 2010 108
Table 5.5 Joint Statements on the Humanitarian Impacts of Nuclear Weapons 108
Table 5.6 Overview of the prohibition debate 110
Table 6.1 UNGAR and ROK’s vote, 2001-2017 122
Table 7.1 UNGAR and DPRK’s vote, 2001-2017 135
Table 7.1 UNGAR and Sweden’s vote, 2001-2017 146
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 NPT at glance 2
Figure 1.2 Key Concept Use, I 1950-2016 16
Figure 1.2 Key Concept Use, II 1950-2016 16
Figure 1.2 Key Concept Use, III 1950-2016 17
Figure 1.5 Rational vs irrational, individual vs collective choice 26
Figure 1.6 Case Study Research Design 28
Figure 2.1 Existing hypotheses for achievement of higher effectiveness 53
Figure 2.2 Typology of institutional outcomes 54
Figure 2.3 Changing focus towards outcome 55
Figure 2.4 Process of socialization and outcomes 56
Figure 3.1 Factors and mechanisms affecting state behavior within institutions 62
Figure 3.2 Funding of the IAEA: Safeguards vs. TCF 65
Figure 3.3 Safeguards implementation, 1970-2016 66
Figure 3.4 NWS’ progress in disarmament 66
Figure 3.5 Number of concluded safeguard agreements 70
Figure 3.6 States nuclear weapon preferences 76
Figure 4.1 Theory review on non-proliferation/ level of rationalism/ level of analysis 83
Figure 4.2 Change in shared knowledge based on NPT membership and UNGAR voting 88
Figure 4.3 Theoretical approaches and actor’s perception 90
Figure 4.4 Case selection and hypotheses 93
Figure 5.1 Shifts in the knowledge structure on nuclear weapons, 1945-2016 95
Figure 5.2 Nuclear reactor construction starts, 1954-2014 99
Figure 5.3 Nuclear reactors connected to grid worldwide, 1954-2014 100
Figure 5.4 Horizontal diffusion of nuclear energy for PU, 1954-2015 100
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