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系統識別號 U0002-1306201115255000
中文論文名稱 俄羅斯對納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫問題的立場與政策
英文論文名稱 The Study of Russia‘s Policy in the Nagorno-Karabakh Issue
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 俄羅斯研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Slavic Studies
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 林姿彣
研究生英文姓名 Tzu-Wen Lin
學號 696320216
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2011-05-26
論文頁數 205頁
口試委員 指導教授-馬良文
委員-彼薩列夫
委員-王定士
中文關鍵字 納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫問題  亞塞拜然  亞美尼亞  俄羅斯  政策 
英文關鍵字 Nagorno-Karabakh  Azerbaijan  Armenia  Russia  Policy 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 本文所要探討的納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫問題是世界上值得關注的民族問題。在科索沃、阿布哈茲與南奧塞梯相繼獨立的情況下,亞塞拜然與納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫的問題也受到相對的重視。納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫是亞塞拜然的一個自治區,在前蘇聯時期,蘇聯當局決定將納卡被劃歸為亞塞拜然的領土,但是,由於它的人口多是由亞美尼亞人所組成,因此成立納-卡自治州,成為亞塞拜然境內亞美尼亞人所居住的一塊飛地,所以亞美尼亞對此安排有所不滿,所以在歷史上亞美尼亞與亞塞拜然就一直對納卡的歸屬問題有所爭議。
而在1988年2月,在亞美尼亞共和國支持下的納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫當地居民與亞塞拜然發生武裝衝突,而在1991年,納卡宣布獨立,但是除了亞美尼亞之外,並未獲得國際的承認。隨著蘇聯的解體,助長了亞美尼亞人在亞塞拜然的分離運動,而納卡與亞塞拜然之間的武裝衝突也演變成亞美尼亞與亞塞拜然之間的戰爭,亞美尼亞占領了納卡與附近地區。直到1994年5月,兩國簽訂停火協議,戰爭才宣告結束。而到現在為止,兩國總統也就納卡問題進行了多次的會晤,但仍尚未取得重大突破。
而在納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫問題上,俄羅斯扮演著相當重要的角色,針對此問題有著自己的立場與相關的政策,並在納卡問題上也積極扮演主導的一方,對俄而言,在俄格兩國的衝突之後,俄羅斯更為迫切地需要地區和平,來鞏固地區的安全。而積極加深在外高加索地區勢力的歐、美大國、土耳其以及與納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫問題息息相關的亞塞拜然與亞美尼亞兩國,也針對此問題有著自己的立場與政策,因此在納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫問題上,不論是在各方面,俄羅斯採取怎樣的態度與政策,勢必也會受各國的影響,而這也在一定程度上影響到俄羅斯相關政策的制訂,因此本文是針對各國立場進行分析,進而探討出俄羅斯在納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫問題上的政策與影響其政策之因素。
英文摘要 The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh which has lasted since at least 1988 (in its opened form) is one of the most complicated issues of the foreign relations in Caucasus area. Moreover, it has great significance for the international relations in general. The author sets to analyze the positions of the main sides involved in it, namely the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (affiliated with Armenia), Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia‘s position is of paramount importance for all the sides of the conflict. Other important players are Turkey, USA and EU.
On the basis of a thorough study of various sources, such as official and private documents, letters, memoirs etc. the author traces the evolution of Armenia‘s and Azerbaijan‘s positions after the 1992-1994 war paying the main attention to the diplomatic maneuvers of Russia and to a lesser extent Western countries. Of special importance is the assessment of real motives of this evolution and its diplomatic articulation. This study contributes greatly to the understanding of international situation in the trans-Caucasian region as well as Russia‘s role as a regional power.
The author comes to conclusion that Russia has been playing quite a positive role in the regional politics being the most authoritative mediator in various conflicts. Yet due to Azerbaijan‘s unwillingness to accept a de facto independence of Nagorno-Karabakh and the contradictions between the powers with specific interests in this region, the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh provides an example of a frozen but ready to explode any time conflict. As the author shows, this situation has both internal and external causes.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論 ............................................ 1
第一節 研究動機 ........................................ 1
第二節 研究目的 ........................................ 3
第三節 研究理論與方法 .................................. 3
第四節 文獻分析 .........................................5
第五節 研究架構 ........................................ 7
第二章 納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫問題的歷史背景................. 11
第一節 納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫地區衝突起源與因素 ............ 11
第二節 納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫衝突與戰爭 .....................20
第三節 納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫衝突的結果及後續發展........... 30
第三章 內部因素影響俄羅斯納卡的立場與政策 ............. 45
第一節 民族分離主義影響的俄羅斯政策 ................... 45
第二節 能源因素影響的俄羅斯經濟政策 ................... 59
第四章 外部因素影響俄羅斯納卡的立場與政策 ............. 77
第五章 亞塞拜然、亞美尼亞與納卡之立場與政策.............97
第一節 亞塞拜然的立場與應對政策 ....................... 97
第二節 亞美尼亞之立場 ................................ 109
第三節 納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫之現況與立場 ................. 119
第六章 歐美大國與土耳其之立場 ........................ 129
第一節 歐盟的立場 .................................... 129
第二節 美國的立場 .................................... 141
第三節 土耳其的立場................................... 150
第七章 結論 .......................................... 161
第一節 研究回顧 ...................................... 161
第二節 問題探討與研究發現 ............................ 161
第三節 後續發展與評估 ............................. ...166
參考書目與文獻........................................ 169
附錄
一、亞美尼亞與亞塞拜然之納卡衝突1988-2010年年表
圖表
圖 1研究流程 .................................. 9
圖 2納戈爾諾卡拉巴赫地理位置圖 ............... 20
圖 3堮五國 ............................. ....60
圖 4巴傑石油管道和跨堮天然氣管道 ........... 64
圖 5哈薩克雙胞胎石油與天然氣管道 ............. 65
圖 6納布科天然氣管線 ......................... 67
圖 7堮管道財團管道 ......................... 69
圖 8藍溪天然氣管道 ........................... 70
圖 9北溪天然氣管道 ........................... 70
圖 10南溪天然氣管道 .......................... 71
圖 11薩姆松-傑伊漢石油管道 ................... 71
圖 12堮五國管線圖 .......................... 74
圖 13堮天然氣管道 .......................... 75

表 1 亞塞拜然石油開採量 62
表 2俄羅斯在亞塞拜然的投資金額 72
參考文獻 一、參考書目
(一) 中文書籍
尹慶耀(1995),獨立國協研究,台北:幼獅文化。
徐葵(1998),俄羅斯和東歐中亞國家年鑒,北京:當代世界出版社。
趙常慶主編(2001年8月),十年巨變-中亞和外高加索卷,北京:中國社會科學院俄羅斯東歐中亞研究所。
(二) 英文書籍
Herzig, Edmund (1999), the New Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Karagiannis, Emmanuel (2002), Energy and security in the Caucasus, London: Routledge- Curzon.
(三) 俄文書籍
Казимиров, В. К. (2009), Мир Карабаху, Mосква: Международные Отношения.
Помпеев, Ю. А. (2010), Карабахский Дневник, Mосква: Издательство Канон.
二、期刊資源
(一) 中文期刊
方華平(1995),試論冷戰後的民族分離主義,國際政治研究,第三期,15-18。
王海燕,米智(2008),雙擴對歐洲一體化進程的影響,內蒙古民族大學學報,13-18。
王妍(2008),北約東擴對俄羅斯地緣政治變遷的影響,遼寧行政學院學報,第十期,225-226。
代可(2008),淺析全球化背景下民族分離主義興起的原因,工會論壇,第十四卷第二期,151-152。
朱曉中(2003),雙東擴的政治學-北約和歐盟擴大及其對歐洲觀念的影響,俄羅斯中亞東歐研究,第二期,54-64。
李興(2005),北約歐盟雙東擴 俄羅斯不同對策及其原因,俄羅斯中亞東歐研究,第二期,59-65。
李抒音(2006),外高加索形勢對俄羅斯安全環境影響分析,東歐中亞研究,第三期,73-79。
李君瑞,李宏祥(2008),歐盟東擴對歐俄能源關係的影響,法治與社會,269-270。
吳潮,宋春蘭(1996),北約東擴與歐盟東擴的比較分析,浙江師大學報,第六期,47-51。
吳福環(2001),堮石油與國際政治,和平與發展季刊,第三期,43-46。
苗華壽(2004),評《十年巨變——中亞和外高加索卷》,俄羅斯中亞東歐研究,第二期,86-88。
171
姜國全(2008),淺析歐盟東擴的戰略意義,北華大學學報,第九卷第六期,10-14。
孫壯志(1997),談俄羅斯與外高加索三國的關係,東歐中亞研究,第六期,71-77。
孫永祥,張晶(2003),美國在堮地區的長期戰略評析,阿拉伯世界,第二期,13-15。
徐之名,王正泉(2006),中東歐國家加入歐盟對俄羅斯的不利影響,俄羅斯中亞東歐研究,第一期,69-73。
涂榮娟(1998),北約東擴與美俄之爭,四川師範學院學報,第六期,78-82。
畢洪業(2003),轉型以來俄羅斯與外高加索國家關係的演變,俄羅斯研究,第三期,23-27。
常慶,石油之邦 阿塞拜疆,環球民族大觀,68-70。
許濤,馬晴燕(1999),中亞外高加索國家對外關係中的西傾取向,國際資料信息,第十期,17-18。
張博文(1999),從北約東擴看美國的戰略意圖,陝西青年管理幹部學院學報,第三期,47-48。
張璽禎(2004),淺析車臣民族分離活動,瀋陽建築大學學報(社會科學版),第六卷第二期,111-113。
楊曼蘇,張家棟(2002),民族分離主義及其影響,國際觀察國際政治國際關係,第一期,27-32。
(二) 英文期刊
Blandy, C. W., (2008) "Azerbaijan: is war over Nagornyy Karabakh a realistic option?", Advanced Research and Assessment Group, Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, Caucasus Series.
Cornell, Svante E. (1999), "The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict", Department of East European Studies,
http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/inside/publications/1999_NK_Book.pdf.
Mr. PFUHL (1994), Germany, Socialist Group, Mr. SOLE TURA, Germany, Socialist Group, "Report on the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh".
Popov, Eduard (2010), "Russia-Azerbaijan: status and prospect of cooperation", http://sam.gov.az/sites/default/files/publications/afen/e.popov-russia-azerbaijan_status_and_prospect_of_cooperation.pdf, 16-17.
Republic of Azerbaijan State Program on Poverty Reduction and Economic Development 2003-2005(2003).
Sagramoso, Domitilla, "Violence and conflict in the Russian North Caucasus", International Affairs, London: Vol. 83, No. 4.
"The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh: causes, the status of negotiations, and prospects", Rexane Dehdashti-Rasmussen, http://www.core-hamburg.de/documents/yearbook/english/06/Rasmussen-en.pdf, p.197-198.
三、論文與報告
張世昌(1997),納戈諾卡拉巴赫地區民族衝突之研究(西元1988年-1991年),淡江大學俄羅斯研究所。
黃惠華(2009),堮地區的能源競合關係與俄國的角色(1999-2006),淡江大學俄羅斯研究所。
四、網路資料
(一) 中文網站
「土耳其和阿塞拜疆就建立戰略合作委員會簽署協議」,新華網,http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2010-09/16/c_12573847.htm(16/9/2010)。
「希拉里出訪亞塞拜然 堅持和平解決納卡問題」,CRI Online, http://big5.cri.cn/gate/big5/gb.cri.cn/27824/2010/07/05/107s2908530.htm(2010/7/5)。
「阿塞拜疆與歐盟簽署首份天然氣合作文件」,新華網,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-01/14/c_12981752.htm(2011/1/14)。
「亞美尼亞總理瓦茲根•薩爾基相等遇刺身亡」,人民網,http://www.people.com.cn/BIG5/historic/1027/3600.html(1999/10/27)。
「亞美尼亞能源領域對外合作情況」,中國商品網,http://big5.ec.com.cn/gate/big5/ccn.mofcom.gov.cn/spbg/show.php?id=4856&ids=(2006/11/23)。
「亞美尼亞總統下週訪俄 解決與亞塞拜然爭端」,奇摩股市,http://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news_content/url/d/a/090418/1/1g9ue.html(2009/4/18)。
「亞塞拜然總統說不排除武力解決納卡問題」,CRI Online, http://big5.cri.cn/gate/big5/gb.cri.cn/27824/2010/12/25/2225s3102454.htm(2010/12/25)。
「亞美尼亞概況」,新華網,http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-06/18/content_445944_3.htm。
「亞美尼亞:亞美尼亞與美國安全合作的不斷加強」,博雅旅遊網, http://as.bytravel.cn/art/ymn/ymnyymgaqhzdbdjq/。
「美國堅持和平解決納卡衝突」,新民晚報,http://xinmin.news365.com.cn/gj/201007/t20100705_2759065.htm(2010/7/5)。
「兩前蘇聯加盟國將討論和約」,大紀元,http://epochtimes.com/gb/8/11/2/n2317339.htm(2008/11/2)。
「俄擬購買亞塞拜然所出口的全部天然氣」,新浪網,http://financenews.sina.com/sinacn/000-000-107-114/202/2010-01-12/18041281143.html(2010/1/12)。
「納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫地區不顧國際社會的反對進行總統大選」,大紀元,http://epochtimes.com/gb/2/8/12/n207890.htm(2002/8/12)。
「第884(1993)號決議」,聯合國安全理事會,http://www.un.org/chinese/aboutun/prinorgs/sc/sres/93/s884.htm(1993)。
「歐盟表示不承認阿塞拜疆納卡地區公投及其結果」,中國新聞網,http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gj/news/2006/12-12/836005.shtml(2006/12/12)。
「歐盟不承認阿塞拜疆納卡地區公投及其結果」,搜狐新聞,http://news.sohu.com/20061212/n246967664.shtml(2006/12/12)。
「歐盟強調不承認納卡地區獨立」,新華網,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2007-07/21/content_6408478.htm(2007/7/21)。

(二) 英文網站
“Azerbaijan’s policy of economic, political and cultural Discrimination”, Office of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, http://nkrusa.org/nk_conflict/azerbaijan_discrimination.shtml.
“Azerbaijan”, president.az, http://www.president.az/azerbaijan/karabakh/?locale=en.
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“Azerbaijan slams ‘illegal Armenian settlers’ near Karabakh”, Daily Times, http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011%5C03%5C29%5Cstory_29-3-2011_pg14_5(29/3/2011).
“Azerbaijan and Russia concluded military agreement”, Cetral Asia-Caucasus Institute, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/276(3/12/2003).
“Azerbaijan – United States relations”, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan_%E2%80%93_United_States_relations.
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“Armenia: Nagorno-Karabakh not part of Turkey talks”, Today's Zaman, http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?load=detay&link=171730(7/4/2009).
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“Armenian parliament to discuss Karabakh independence”, Hurriyet, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=nagorno-karabakh-enters-armenian-parliament8217s-budget-2010-12-06(6/12/2010).
“Armenia: 10 most significant events of the year”, News am, http://news.am/eng/news/43380.html(29/12/2010).
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“Azeri soldier killed in Nagorno-Karabakh”, Perss TV, http://www.presstv.ir/detail/148762.html(29/10/2010).
“Azerbaijani child killed near Karabakh, ministry says”, Hurriyet, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=azerbaijani-child-killed-near-karabakh-ministry-says-2011-03-10(10/3/2011).
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(三) 俄文網站
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