| 英文摘要 |
Although stocks have the characteristics of high returns, there are problems with buying and selling decisions.In the past, technical analysis was used to buy and sell. Under the parameter sensitivity adjustment, there will be great differences, and the data used in research will affect the stability of technical indicators.Therefore, for certain characteristic years, it is important to choose appropriate technical indicators, parameters, and study the stability of these indicators.
This study uses the value of the Taiwan Weighted Index as an indicator. Collecting several characteristic years in recent years,Select stock technical indicators (Boulin Channel, RSI, KD), use these technical indicators to match each other to find the best applicable parameters, and observe the changes of these parameters between these characteristic years.
The findings of this article show:
1. In the case of a weighted index decline of 21.46% in 2011, the maximum return rate of 21.67% can be achieved by using the trading strategy of absolute RSI;In the case of a weighted index increase of 14.77% in 2017, the use of three technical indicator strategies is not significantly better than the buy and hold strategy;With the weighted index falling by 9.18% in 2018, the maximum return rate of 18.37% can be achieved using the trading strategy of KD absolute value.
2. Under a bear market, the absolute value method of stop loss and stop profit alone is used as the sell method, and the return rate is worse than the market;In the comparison of trading strategies using absolute values in RSI or KD, RSI is more stable.In the strategy comparison of RSI or KD using a small time parameter and a large time parameter, RSI mostly has a large return difference and KD has more than half of a large return.Under the condition of using the absolute value strategy under RSI, it is better than the crossing strategy. However, using the absolute value strategy and the crossing strategy under KD has no obvious advantages and disadvantages, and the index passivation phenomenon is not obvious in these two indicators.
3. Under these characteristic years, in using the Bollinger Band strategy, we propose a characteristic buying and selling method that has a stable return better than the broader market and better than other Bollinger Band general strategies.
4. In these characteristic years, to discuss the relationship between price and volume, the traditional eight laws of price and volume have not been established.In addition, we found that there are some simple phenomena. When the price fluctuates greatly, the increase in trading volume is not obvious than the original one. Only in 2017 under certain circumstances has a more obvious relationship of fluctuation.But when the trading volume fluctuates, the price does not change correspondingly (the law: the quantity first price line is not established).
|
