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系統識別號 U0002-1301202023305700
中文論文名稱 盈餘預測對公司績效受資訊透明度變化之影響探討
英文論文名稱 The impact of earnings forecast on company performance under the change of information transparency
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 淡江大學暨澳洲昆士蘭理工大學財金全英語雙碩士學位學程
系所名稱(英) TKU-QUT Dual Master Degree Program In Finance (English-Taught Program)
學年度 108
學期 1
出版年 109
研究生中文姓名 沈元婷
研究生英文姓名 Yuan-Ting Shen
學號 606670205
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2020-01-04
論文頁數 56頁
口試委員 指導教授-聶建中
委員-謝劍平
委員-謝志柔
中文關鍵字 盈餘預測  公司績效  資訊透明度  縱橫平滑移轉模型 
英文關鍵字 Earnings forecast  Company performance  Information transparency  Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究為探討盈餘預測對公司績效受資訊透明度之影響關係,採用
Gonza′lez, Teräsvirta and van Dijk (2004, 2005) 所發展之縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型 (Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model, PSTR),以資訊透明度作為模型中的 門檻變數,觀察券商盈餘預測結果對公司績效是否存在平滑移轉效果,接著分 析券商預測值中預估營收、預估營業利益、預估稅後淨利及預估稅後 EPS 對公 司績效 ROE 的變化。本研究之實證結果發現,盈餘預測結果皆對公司績效產生 顯著之影響,然而只有預估營收這項預測值可看出會受到資訊透明度高低而有 所影響,其餘預測值皆不會受到資訊揭露程度影響。預估營業利益對公司績效 皆呈現負相關,預估稅後淨利及預估稅後 EPS 則對公司績效皆呈現正相關。
英文摘要 This study investigates about the impact of earnings forecast on company performance under the change of information transparency, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model(PSTR) developed by Gonza′lez, Teräsvirta and van Dijk (2004, 2005), and take information transparency as threshold variable in the model. In order to analyze the impact of revenue forecast, profit forecast, net income forecast and EPS after tax forecast on ROE, we previously observed whether earnings forecast results have a smooth transfer effect on company performance. The results show that all earnings forecast items have a significant impact on ROE, however, only revenue forecast will be affected by the level of information transparency, and others forecast values will not be affected. Profit forecast is negatively correlated to company performance, net income forecast and EPS after tax forecast are positively correlated to company performance.
論文目次 目錄
中文摘要.......................................................... I
英文摘要.......................................................... II
圖目錄............................................................. V
表目錄............................................................. V
第一章 緒論.......................................................1
第一節 研究背景與動機.....................................1
第二節 研究目的...............................................3
第三節 研究流程與內容.................................... 4
第二章 文獻回顧.................................................6
第一節 盈餘預測對公司績效之影響. ...................6
第二節 盈餘預測準確性之相關文獻.....................7
第三節 對公司價值影響因素之探討.....................9
第四節 資訊透明度對盈餘預測的影響.................10
第五節 資訊透明度對公司價值的影響.................12
第六節 資訊透明度之發展..................................13
第三章 研究方法.................................................15
第一節 變數定義與衡量.....................................15
第二節 縱橫單根檢定........................................18
第三節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型...........................22
第四節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型之設定.................28
第四章 研究結果.................................................33
第一節 研究資料...............................................33
第二節 資料之敘述統計.....................................36
第三節 縱橫單根檢定........................................36
第四節 縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型...........................37
第五章 結論 ......................................................45
第一節 研究結論..............................................45
第二節 後續建議..............................................46
參考文獻...........................................................47

圖目錄
圖 1-3-1 研究流程圖 ....................................... 5
圖 3-1-1 變數架構圖 .......................................16
圖 3-3-1 m=1之轉換模型.................................26
圖 3-3-2 m=2之轉換模型................................27

表目錄
表 4-1-1 第九屆至第十二屆資訊揭露評鑑之結果與換算 ______35
表 4-1-2 2015 年至 2018 年公司治理評鑑之結果與換算 ____35
表 4-2-1 各項變數敘述統計表 ______________________________36
表 4-3-1 單根檢定 _________________________________________37
表 4-4-1 盈餘預測對公司績效之同質性檢定 _________________38
表 4-4-2 轉換模型之選定___________________________________40
表 4-4-3 盈餘預測對公司績效之移轉區間個數檢定 __________41
表 4-4-4 盈餘預測對公司績效之模型估計結果 ______________43
表 4-4-5 盈餘預測對公司績效模型中解釋變數之影響 ________44

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