寵物之所以吸引人，其中最大功能便是提供現代人們陪伴與娛樂。然而，隨著資本主義擴張與科技日星月異，寵物不僅只是提供人們陪伴與娛樂的消費商品，也形同人們身上的裝飾品。人類之於寵物總存在一種上與下的階層關係，並對寵物擁有一種所有物的的控制情節。
    既然寵物已成為人類生活的一部份，本研究目的擬在找尋寵物在人類社會的諸多社會意義，並希望為寵物創造多元未來，提供給寵物或非寵物飼主、以及決策者參考。
    關於研究方法，本研究運用未來學方法論中的因素層級分析法（Casual Layered Analysis）並經由因素層級分析法，藉由雙變項情境規畫法的應用，產生四個可能的寵物未來。第一寵物綠化未來；第二為無寵物未來；第三為寵物工業未來；第四為寵物新文化。在每一種未來中加入由CLA建構出的情境規劃分析，提供讀者由淺至深、不同層面的解析。

The reason that pets have become so popular lies in their functionality as companions and objects of entertainment. In addition, with the constant development of both capitalism and various technologies, pets have reached the point of becoming accessories to humans. Indeed, humans and pets, respectively, live in an upper and lower class relationship. People usually see pets as belongings and want to control them.
   Since pets are part of humans’ lives, at the aim of this research is to explore and uncover the social meaning(s) of pets in human society and, hopefully, provide alternative futures of pets to pets/animals, non-pet owners, and decision makers.
    As for the research methodology, I have utilized Dr. Inayatullah’s Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) and scenarios with double variable incasting. This has resulted in four possible pet futures: Win-win, Gaia, Identity loss, and Transformer. At each scenario, readers can observe different levels of facts and understanding.

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

CHAPTER 1 ------------------------------------------------1
Introduction ---------------------------------------------1
1.1 Current Data on Pets ---------------------------------1
1.2 Study of Animals -------------------------------------4
1.3 Pets in the Modern Era -------------------------------6
1.4 Personal Motivation ----------------------------------8
1.5 Research Questions ----------------------------------10
1.6 Purposes of Study -----------------------------------12

CHAPTER 2 -----------------------------------------------13
LITERATURE REVIEW ---------------------------------------13
2. Introduction -----------------------------------------13
2.1 Different Definitions of Pets ---------------------- 13
2.2 From Animal to Pet --------------------------------- 15
2.2.1 Prehistory ----------------------------------------15
2.2.2 Shaping pet culture ------------------------------ 19
2.2.3 Cultural influences : From West to East ---------- 22
    2.3 CLA Layers ------------------------------------- 23
          2.3.1 Litany --------------------------------- 23
          2.3.2 Social/systemic causes ------------------26
          2.3.3 Worldview ------------------------------ 38
2.3.4 Myth/story---------------------------------------- 43
2.4 Summary--------------------------------------------- 46
CHAPTER 3 ---------------------------------------------- 49 
METHODOLOGY -------------------------------------------- 49
3. Introduction ---------------------------------------- 49
3.1 Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) ---------------------- 50
3.1.1 CLA layers --------------------------------------- 51
3.1.2 CLA characteristics ------------------------------ 52
3.1.3 CLA benefits ------------------------------------- 53
3.1.4 A case study ------------------------------------- 55
3.2 Scenario ------------------------------------------- 56
3.2.1 History ------------------------------------------ 56
3.2.2 Definitions -------------------------------------- 57
3.2.3 Benefits ----------------------------------------- 58
3.2.4 Types -------------------------------------------- 58
3.2.5 Steps of application ----------------------------- 59
3.2.6 Scenario critiques ------------------------------- 60
3.3 Summary -------------------------------------------- 62

CHAPTER 4 ---------------------------------------------- 63
FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS ---------------------------------- 63
4. Introduction ---------------------------------------- 63
4.1 Casual Layered Analysis -----------------------------63
4.2 Futures Scenarios ---------------------------------- 70

CHAPTER 5 ---------------------------------------------- 78
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ----------------------------- 78
5. Introduction ---------------------------------------- 78
5.1 Summary -------------------------------------------- 78 
5.2 The Social Meanings of Pets and Their Futures -------80
5.3 Present Policy Making Challenge ---------------------82
5.4 Conclusion ----------------------------------------- 84
References --------------------------------------------- 87

American Pet Products Association (APPA). (2009). Industry statistics & trends. Retrieved March 7, 2009, from http://americanpetproducts.org/press_industrytrends.asp

Arluke, Arnold. (2002). A sociology of sociological animal studies. Society & Animals, 10(4), 369-374. 

Barker, Sandra B., Christopher S. Rogers, John W. Turner, Ariane S. Karpf, & H. Marie Suthers-Mccabe. (2003). Benefits of interacting with companion animals: A bibliography of articles published in refereed journals during the past 5 years. American Behavioral Scientist, 47(1), 94.

BBC News. (2000). Sony upgrades robot pet. Retrieved March 3, 2009, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/968687.stm

BBC News. (2003). Japanese dogs hit the catwalk. Retrieved March 29, 2009, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2984840.stm

BBC News. (2004). Robots set to get homely by 2007. Retrieved December 12, 2008, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/3764142.stm

Beck, Alan, & Aaron Katcher. (1996). Between pets and people. Indiana, PA: Purdue University Press.

Beck, Alan. (1981). Guidelines for planning for pets in urban areas. In B. Fogle(Ed.), Interaction between people and pets (pp.231-240). Springfield, IL: Charles C. Thomas.

Bell, Wendell. (2002). Making people responsible: The possible, the probable, and the preferable. In James A. Dator (Ed.), Advancing futures: Futures studies in higher education (pp.33-52). Westport, CT: Praeger.

Berry, Bonnie. (2008). Interactionism and animal aesthetics: A theory of reflected social power. Society and Animals, 16, 75-89.

Bolton, David. (n.d.). Definition of artificial intelligence (AI). Retrieved June 29, 2009, from http://cplus.about.com/od/introductiontoprogramming/g/aidefn.htm

Brown, Arnold. (2006). The robotic economy: Brave new world or a return to slavery? The Futurist, 40(4) 50-55.
Bulliet, Richard, W. (2005). Hunters, herders, and hamburgers: The past and future of human-animal relationships. New York: Columbia University Press.

Burke, Robert. (2009). From strategic foresight to conversations about alternative and desired futures using scenario to transform the present. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 99-104.

Bussey, Marcus. (2006). Introducing neohumanism. In Sohail Inayatullah, Marcus Bussey, and Ivana Milojevic(Eds.), Neohumanist educational futures(pp.7-24). Taipei, Taiwan: Tamkang University Press.

Bussey, Marcus. (2009). Causal layered pedagogy: Rethinking curricula practice. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 19-32.

Business Wire. (2008). International dog-fight over cloning between BioArts International & RNL Bio. Retrieved September 21, 2009, from http://www.financialexpress.com/news/international-dogfight-over-cloning-rights-between-bioarts-international-&-rnl-bio/324955/

Börjeson, Lena, Mattias Höjer, Karl-Henrik Dreborg, Tomas 
Ekvall, & Göran Finnveden. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user’s guide. Futures, 38, 723-739.

Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network (CCCSN). (2007). 
Scenarios: Introduction. Retrieved April 20, 2009, from http://www.cccsn.ca/Scenarios/Scenarios_Introduction-e.html

Capone, Francesca, Giulia Bompadre, Stefano Cinotti, Enrico 
Alleva, & Francesca Cirulli. (n.d.). Beneficial effects of pet relationships: Results of a pilot study in Italy. Retrieved April 6, 2009 from http://www.iss.it/binary/neco/cont/Beneficial%20effects%20of%20pet%20relationships.1202902553.pdf

Cavalieri, Paola. (2003). Why non-human animals deserve human rights. Catherine Woollard (Trans.). Retrieved November 11, from http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/oso/public/content/philosophy/9780195143805/toc.html

Chan, Cheung Ming, Kam Wing Cheung, & Fat Lam Lo. (2007). An exploratory study of pet raising and health of the elderly people in Hong Kong. Asia-Pacific Institute of Ageing Studies Monograph Paper Series, 12. Retrieved December 15th, 2008, from http://www.library.ln.edu.hk/etext/apms/apms.html

Chermack, Thomas J. (2006). Assessing the quality of scenarios in scenario planning. Futures Research Quarterly, 4, 23-36.

Chermack, Thomas J., & Susan A. Lynham. (2002). Definitions and outcome variables of scenario planning. Human Resource Development Review, 1(3), 366-383.

Chien, Yu Ju. (2002). The commodification of pets in Taiwan. Master thesis. Taipei, Taiwan: National Taiwan University Press.

Cooper, Melinda. (2008). Life beyond the limits: Inventing the bioeconomy. Life As Surplus. USA, WA : University of Washington press.

Cornish, Edward. (1977). The study of the future. Washington, D.C.: World Future Society.
Covert, Anita Miller, Alice Phipps Whiren, Joanne Keith, & 

Christine Nelson. (1985). Pets, early adolescents, and families (pp.95-108). In Marvin B. Sussman (Ed.), Pets and the family. New York: Haworth.

Cowan, Ruth Schwartz. (1976). The “Industrial Revolution” in the home: Household technology and social change in the 20th century. Technology and Culture, 17(1), 1-23.

Curry, Andrew. (2009). From foresight to insight: Using scenario well. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 119-122. 

Daniele. (2007). Pets. Courrier International. Retrieved June 3, 2009 from http://bellesplumes.blogs.courrierinternational.com/archive/2007/07/09/les-animaux-de-compagnie.html (French)

Dorin, Alan. (2004). Building artificial life for play. Artificial Life, 10(1), 99-112.

Esty, Daniel C. & Andrew S. Winston. (2009). Green to Gold : How smart companies use environmental strategy to innovate, create value, and build competitive advantage. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.

Fiala, Nathan. (2009). How meat contribute to global warming. Scientific American. Retrieved May 6, 2010, from http://www.scientificamerican.com/slideshow.cfm?id=the-greenhouse-hamburger&photo_id=DC1D626B-EF40-69AA-D787F441072C4156

Foulkes, Imogen. (2010). Switzerland rejects move to provide lawyers for animals. BBC News. Retrieved April 4, 2010, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8554012.stm

Fox, Michael. (1981). Relationships between the human and non-human animals. In Bruce Fogle, D.V.M., & M.R.C.V.S (Eds.). Interrelations between people and pets. Springfield, IL: Charles C Thomas.

Gee, Erin M., & Jean E. Veever. (1984). Everyman and his dog: The demography of pet ownership. Canada: University of Victoria.

Halal, William E. (2006). Technology’s promise: Highlights from the techcast project. The Futurist, 40(6), 41-50.

Haraway, Donna J. (2008). When species meets. Minnesota, MN: University of Minnesota Press.

Hines, Linda M. (2003). Historical perspectives on the human-animal bond. The American Behavioral Scientist, 47(1), 7.

Huang, Wei-Zheng. (2007). Introduction of robot market I II III: Electronic pets. Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC). Retrieved March 3, 2009, from http://mic.iii.org.tw/intelligence/reports/pop_Doc_review.asp?docid=CDOC20070131006 (Chinese).

Inayatullah, Sohail. (2004). Causal layered analysis: Theory, historical context, and case studies. In Sohail Inayatullah (Ed.), The causal layered analysis (CLA) reader. Taipei, Taiwan: Tamkang University Press. 

Inayatullah, Sohail. (2005). Questioning the future: Methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation. Taipei, Taiwan: Tamkang University Press.

Inayatullah, Sohail. (2007). Alternative futures of occupational therapy and therapists. Journal of Futures Studies, 11(4), 41-58.

Inayatullah, Sohail. (2008). Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4-28.

Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO). (2006). Trends in the Japanese robotics industry. .Retrieved April 1, 2009, from http://www.jetro.go.jp/en/reports/market/pdf/2006_15_c.pdf
Japan Pet Food Manufacturers Association(JPFMA). (2009). National dog and cat breeding rate survey. Retrieved April 1, 2009, from http://www.jppfma.org/topics/topics-new.html (Japanese)

Jeter, Kris. (1985). A historical, interdisciplinary analysis of the animal and human social ecosystem. Marriage & Family Review, 8(3/4), 223-238.

Kruse, Corwin R. (2002). Social animals: Animal studies and sociology. Society & Animals 10(4), 375-379.

Laurent, Erick L. (2000). Children, ‘insects’ and play in Japan. Companion animals & us: Exploring the relationships between people & pets. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Levinson, Boris M. (1968). Interpersonal relationship between pets and human beings. In M. W. Fox (Ed.), Abnormal behavior in animals. Philadelphia, PA: Saunders.

Lin, Jose Augusto Polo. (2008). Alternative futures for Panama’s systematic. Master thesis. Taipei, Taiwan: Tamkang University Press.

Lorenz, Konrad. (2002). Men meets dog (2nd ed.). New York: Routledge.

Martin, Thomas S. (2000). Green history: The future of the past. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.

May, Graham. (1996). The future is ours: Foreseeing, managing and creating the future. London: Adamantine.

Mcnicol, Tony. (2003). A robot pet revolution: The new breed of bots both bows and wows. Retrieved July 10, 2009, from http://www.noxon.us/jet/NaraMid-YearSeminar/Animal%20AI.pdf

Mead, George H. (1934). Mind, self and society. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Melson, Gail F. (2001). Reaching across the divide. Why the wild things are: Animals in the lives of children. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Melson, Gail F. (2003). Child development and the human-companion animal bond. The American Behavioral Scientist, 47(1), 31.

Messent, Peter, & James Serpell. (1981). An historical and biological view of the pet-owner bond. In Bruce Fogle, D.V.M., & M.R.C.V.S (Eds.). Interrelations between people and pets. Springfield, IL: Charles C Thomas.

Molitor, Graham T.T. (2009). Scenarios: Worth the effort? Journal of Future Studies, 13(3), 81-92

Mullin, Molly. (2002). Animals and anthropology. Society & Animals, 10(4), 387-393.

Myoken, Yumiko. (2009). Research and development for next generation service robots in Japan. Retrieved September 20, 2009, from http://ukinjapan.fco.gov.uk/resources/en/pdf/5606907/5633632/next-generation-services-robots

Nippon Zenyaku Kogyo Co. (ZENOAQ). (2009). More dogs and cats. Retrieved September 28, 2009, from http://www.zenoaq.jp/english/aij/0905.html 

Pedersen, Helena. (2004). Schools, speciesism, and hidden curricula: The role of critical pedagogy for humane education futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 8(4), 1-14.
Pelletier, Dick. (2008). Cloning lost pets help owners get over their sorrow. Retrieved December 12, 2008, from http://memebox.com/futureblogger/show/583-cloning-lost-pets-help-owners-get-over-their-sorrow

Pet Food Manufacturer’ Association(PFMA). (2008). Pet owning households. Retrieved March 18, 2009, from http://www.pfma.org.uk/overall/pet-population-figures-2.htm

Pet Society. (2009). Retrieved September 9, 2009, from http://www.facebook.com/applications/Pet_Society/11609831134

Ravilious, Kate. (2009). Cute, fluffy and horribly greedy. New Scientist, 204(2731), 46-47.

Renfrow, Jacqueline. (2008). Greening your pets. Better Nutrition, 70(4), 44-45.

Russell, Edmund. (2003). The garden in the machine: Toward an evolutionary history of technology. In Susan R. Schrepfer & Philip Scranton (Eds.), Industrializing organisms: Introducing evolutionary history. New York: Routledge.

Russo, Colin. (2003). The CLA questioning methodology. Journal of Futures Studies, 7(4), 73-82.

Saliba, Gary. (2009). Windows for the mind: The use of scenario planning for enhancing decision-making and managing uncertainty. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 122-128.

Sarkar, Prabha Ranjan. (2007). Renaissance in all the strata of life. Birds and animals. Tiljila, Calcutta: Ananda Marga.

Savishinsky, Joel. (1985). Pets and family relationships among nursing home residents. In Marvin B. Sussman (Ed.), Pets and the family. New York: Haworth.

Schwartz, Peter. (1991). The art of the long view. New York: Boubleday.

Schwarz, Brita, Uno Svedin, & Bjorn Wittrock. (1982). Methods in future studies: Problems and applications. Boulder, Colorado 80301: Westview.

Seed Planning Inc. (2008). A market survey of service robots. Retrieved September 14, 2009, from http://www.seedplanning.co.jp/press/2008/1224.html (Japanese)

Serpell, James. (1996). In the company of animals: A study of human-animal relationships. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Serra, Jordi. (2009). Reinventing the wheel: Common sense and responsibility in futures studies. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 147-150.
Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Shell International. (2001). Scenarios: An explorer’s guide. Retrieved April 20, 2009, from http://www.shell.com/home/content/aboutshell/our_strategy/shell_global_scenarios/scenarios_explorers_guide/scenario_explorers_guide_30102006.html

Shelley, Mary. (1995). Frankenstein (Norton critical editions). In J. Paul Hunter (Ed.). New York: W.W. Norton.

Skloot, Rebecca. (2008). When fur goes green. Prevention, 60(4), 184-186.

Slaughter, Richard A. (2004). Futures beyond dystopia. London: Routledge Falmer.

Slaughter, Richard A., & Marcus Bussey. (2005). Futures thinking for social foresight. Taipei, Taiwan: Tamkang University Press in association with Foresight International.

Soares, Cecelia J. (1985). The companion animal in the context of the family system. Marriafe & Family Review, 8(3/4), 49-62.

Taipei Municipal Institute for Animal Health (TMIAH). (2009). The trend chart of total dogs and cats in Taipei city (1999~2007). Retrieved March, 19, 2009, from http://www.tmiah.tcg.gov.tw/upload/台北市狗貓總數趨勢表.doc (Chinese)

Thomas , Keith. (1985). Man and the natural world: Changing attitudes in England 1500-1800. Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin.

Tikjoeb, Sanne. (2004). Mainstreaming relision in sustainable development: A causal layered analysis. In Sohail Inayatullah (Ed.), The causal layered analysis (CLA) reader (pp. 267-282). Taipei, Taiwan: Tamkang University Press. 

Tuan, Yi-Fu. (1984). Dominance & affection. New York: Vail-Ballou.

Turkle, Sherry. (2000). When toys are us. Forbes, 166(9), 213-214.

United Nation Population Division. (2009). World urbanization prospects: The 2007 revision population database. Retrieved September 30, 2009, from http://esa.un.org/unup/p2k0data.asp

Veevers, Jean E. (1984). What is a pet? Defining the concept of companion animal. Canada: University of Victoria.

Veevers, Jean E. (1985). The social meanings of pets: Alternatives roles for companion animals. In Marvin B. Sussman (Ed.), Pets and the family (pp.11-30). New York: The Haworth.

Wang, Chang-Ming. (2008, May 18). Shiba dogs owners: Adopt, do not purchase. Animal Taiwan Diary. Pamela (Trans.). Retrieved April 2, 2009, from http://www.animalstaiwan.org/diary/index.php?s=stray

White, Debra J. (2009). Pet projects. Sierra, 94(3), 16.
Wilkie, Rhoda, & David Inglis (Eds). (2007). Animals and society: Critical concepts in the social sciences(vol. 1-5). London: Routledge.

Wilkinson, Angela. (2009). Scenarios practices: In search of theory. Journal of Futures Studies, 13(3), 107-114.

Williams, Martyn. (2000). CNN.com. Sony unveils new robotic pet. Retrieved March 3, 2009, from http://archives.cnn.com/2000/TECH/computing/10/12/aibo.lion.idg/index.html

Wilson, Cindy C., & Dennis C. Turner (Eds.) (1998). Companion animals in human health. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Yamaguchi, Takeshi. (2008). Market of service robot. Retrieved September 20, 2009, from http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/tech/20080220/147642/ (Japanese)

Yu, Sen-Lun. (2005, January 9). After the dog craze. Taipei Times (p.17).