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系統識別號 U0002-1206201215104000
中文論文名稱 台灣期貨與選擇權交易對股票市場預測性之研究
英文論文名稱 The Predictability of Futures and Options Trading on Stock Market Return
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 財務金融學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Banking and Finance
學年度 100
學期 2
出版年 101
研究生中文姓名 王玟婷
研究生英文姓名 Wen-Ting Wang
學號 699531074
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2012-05-19
論文頁數 71頁
口試委員 指導教授-林蒼祥
共同指導教授-蔡蒔銓
委員-李命志
委員-古永嘉
委員-涂登才
中文關鍵字 期貨與選擇權市場  報酬  資訊交易者  預測力 
英文關鍵字 futures and options markets  return  informed trader  predictability 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學商學
中文摘要 本研究將台灣期貨與選擇權市場進行綜合比較,透過這兩種市場都擁有用來衡量衍生性商品價格對標的價格敏感程度的風險參數─Delta來研究分析交易者的資訊內涵。探討各類型交易人市場取得Delta時點(Market timing)的優劣以及應用Chang, Hsieh and Wang (2010)延用Ni et al., (2008)的方法,來計算當天台指期貨與台指選擇權的淨Delta,了解投資人對未來報酬的預測能力來觀察其是否為資訊交易者。
由於選擇權市場有造市者提供市場流動性,故特別把造市者下單情況做為討論之一,觀察其交易行為是否有別於其他投資人,結果發現選擇權造市者主要為市場提供流動性,其預測能力不顯著,表示造市者的交易行為對於未來報酬並無預測能力。
本研究顯示開倉較具有資訊性,由開倉部位來分析,發現只交易期貨以及期選皆交易的外資為方向性資訊交易者。自營商若操作當沖交易獲利機會極大,但在留倉判斷的錯誤訊息導致其預測能力不佳。在散戶方面,只交易期貨、只交易選擇權以及期選皆交易的散戶對未來報酬預測皆不顯著,且不論是大額散戶或是小額散戶皆無對方向性的預測能力。而只交易選擇權市場部分的各類型交易人所持有之淨Delta對未來股市報酬的預測能力皆不顯著,原因在於只在擇權市場交易的投資人較不在意市場的方向性,其交易的目的關注於市場波動度的變化。
此外,資料期間適逢金融海嘯之際,因此進一步探討各類型交易人在正常市場與市場恐慌時的交易行為是否有差異,結果發現在金融海嘯期間,大部分投資人都有受到衝擊,包含國內法人、小額散戶與造市者,外資除外。且小額散戶受到的金融海嘯的影響顯著大於大額散戶,故本文將散戶歸納為雜訊交易者。
英文摘要 n this paper, we apply the method of Chang, Hsieh and Wang (2010) to investigate the information content of Delta to examine the market timing and the predictive power of different types of traders in the TAIEX futures and options markets on stock market return. We also discuss the impact of financial crisis how to affect the traders.
After the market timing and regression analysis about predictability, this paper finds that foreign institutional investors who trade in only futures market and in both futures and options markets (FF and CF) are the informed traders on the stock market return. Dealers (CS) have wrong information about future return in our result. Market makers’ (OM) major purpose is providing liquidity, so their predictability is not significant. Besides, we also find that individual investors have no the predictive power of the future return. For this reason, we define individual investors as noise traders.
In the period of financial crisis, most of investors had been influenced, including domestic institutional investors, small individual investors and market makers. And we find foreign investors could not be impacted in this period. Our empirical results show that foreign institutional investors who trade in only futures market and in both futures and options markets (FF and CF) possess the strongest and most direct information.
論文目次 目錄
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究架構 5
第二章 文獻探討 7
第一節 不同市場之投資行為訊息反應 7
第二節 不同類型投資人之資訊性 11
第三節 資訊交易者之投資策略 14
第四節 金融危機對投資人之影響 16
第三章 研究方法 18
第一節 衍生性商品市場結構簡介 18
第二節 資料來源與介紹 21
第三節 市場取得Delta時點的優劣比較 29
第四節 迴歸分析方法 32
第四章 實證結果與分析 36
第一節 資料敘述統計分析 36
第二節 各類型投資人市場取得Delta時點優劣之分析 40
第三節 基本迴歸模型分析 45
第四節 金融海嘯的影響 58
第伍章 結論 67
參考文獻 69


表目錄
【表3-1】 2010年全球與我國期貨商品交易量統計 19
【表3-2】 台灣期貨市場外資投資比重 20
【表3-3】 期貨商品內容簡介 22
【表3-4】 期貨成交檔資料格式 23
【表3-5】 選擇權成交檔資料格式 24
【表4-1】 市場敘述統計表 36
【表4-2】 交易人分類敘述統計表(不分帳號) 37
【表4-3】 交易人分類敘述統計表(分帳號) 38
【表4-4】 各類型交易人每日淨Delta之平均數 39
【表4-5】 各類型交易人當日交易可能獲得報酬之帳戶比率平均以及帳戶內未實現損益之平均 41
【表4-6】 各類型交易人當日交易可能獲得報酬之帳戶比率異同之檢定 41
【表4-7】 兩不同類型交易人當日從事交易可能獲得報酬帳戶比之平均數t檢定表 43
【表4-8】 兩不同類型交易人帳戶裡未實現損益之平均數t檢定表 44
【表4-9】 對未來報酬預測分析(不分開平倉) 48
【表4-10】 交易人於現貨市場與衍生性商品市場所持有部位之相關係數 49
【表4-11】 對未來報酬預測分析(開倉) 52
【表4-12】 對未來報酬預測分析(平倉) 53
【表4-13】 對未來報酬預測分析(各類型投資人綜合分析) 56
【表4-14】 對未來報酬預測分析之金融海嘯影響(不分開平倉) 60
【表4-15】 對未來報酬預測分析之金融海嘯影響(開倉) 62
【表4-16】 對未來報酬預測分析之金融海嘯影響(平倉) 63
【表4-17】 對未來報酬預測分析之金融海嘯影響(各類型投資人綜合分析) 65

圖目錄
【圖1-1】 研究流程圖 6
【圖3-1】 期貨市場機構投資人與一般投資人參與比重變化說明圖 20
【圖3-2】 台灣加權股價指數走勢圖 22
【圖3-3】 期貨價格配對說明圖 27
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