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 系統識別號 U0002-1206200815114800 中文論文名稱 多標的遺傳演算法探討南化水庫最佳限水策略 英文論文名稱 Exploring Optimal Hedging Rules of The Nanhua Reservoir Using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm 校院名稱 淡江大學 系所名稱(中) 水資源及環境工程學系碩士班 系所名稱(英) Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering 學年度 96 學期 2 出版年 97 研究生中文姓名 黃景裕 研究生英文姓名 Jing-Yu Huang 學號 695480441 學位類別 碩士 語文別 中文 口試日期 2008-05-09 論文頁數 56頁 口試委員 指導教授-張麗秋共同指導教授-蕭政宗委員-張斐章委員-施國肱委員-黃文政 中文關鍵字 多標的遺傳演算法  Pareto最佳解  限水策略  缺水率  可利用水量 英文關鍵字 multi-objective genetic algorithm  Pareto optimal solutions  hedging rule  shortage ratio  water availability 學科別分類 學科別＞應用科學＞環境工程 中文摘要 本文研究目的為利用多標的遺傳演算法探討南化水庫乾旱時期最佳限水策略，限水策略以標準操作策略(SOP)為基礎並加入限水參數，限水策略依參數個數分為一點法、二點法、及三參數法，另依參數是否隨時間變化分為定值及時變限水策略，所考慮的參數時間變化頻率有半年變化、季變化及月變化。本文選用相互衝突的總缺水率與單旬最大缺水率作為衡量供水水庫營運效率的指標，並以非優勢排列遺傳演算法(NSGA-II)求解以此二缺水指標為標的函數的多標的Pareto最佳解。經應用於南化水庫分析後顯示增加限水參數個數及參數時間變化頻率可有效改善水庫限水效果，即 Pareto鋒線往減少總缺水率及單旬最大缺水率的方向移動，且其限水效果可相互疊加，因此在所分析的十二種限水策略中以三參數法月變化限水策略為最優。 英文摘要 This study aims to exploring optimal hedging rules using multi-objective genetic algorithm for the Nanhua Reservoir during droughts. Hedging parameters are added in the SOP-based rules to construct water-rationing measures. One-, two-, and three-parameter hedging rules associated with constant and time-varying hedging parameters are employed to investigate effects on water-shortage characteristics. Time-varying frequencies considered in this study include semi-annually, quarterly, and monthly varying. Two conflicting shortage indices, total shortage ratio and maximum 10-day shortage ratio, are used to evaluate operation performance of a water-supply reservoir. The Pareto optimal solutions of this multi-objective optimization are searched by the non-dominated shorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II). The proposed methodology is applied to the Nanhua Reservoir that is located in southern Taiwan. The results show that increasing time-varying frequency of hedging parameters can effectively reduce water-shortage characteristic, which are further improved by increasing numbers of hedging parameters. Thus, the three-parameter monthly varying hedging rule performs best among twelve hedging rules evaluated in this study. 論文目次 目錄 頁次 謝誌 I 中文摘要 II ABSTRACT III 目錄 V 圖目錄 VII 表目錄 IX 符號表 X 第一章、緒論 1 1.1研究動機及目的 1 1.2文獻回顧 2 1.3章節架構 4 第二章、研究方法 6 2.1限水策略 6 2.1.1標準操作策略 7 2.1.2一點法限水策略 8 2.1.3二點法限水策略 9 2.1.4三參數法限水策略 11 2.2時變性限水策略 12 2.3缺水指標 13 2.4多標的優選模式 14 2.5遺傳演算法(GA) 14 2.6非優勢排列遺傳演算法(NSGA-II) 21 第三章、個案研究 26 3.1南化水庫及甲仙攔河堰系統概述 26 3.2水庫及攔河堰系統之營運模式 28 第四章、結果與討論 31 4.1限水參數時間變化頻率對Pareto最佳解之影響 32 4.2限水參數個數對Pareto最佳解之影響 40 4.3不同限水策略後優選最佳解決策變數比較 44 第五章、結論與建議 50 5.1結論 50 5.2建議 50 參考文獻 52 參考文獻 1.Bayazit, M, and Unal, E., “Effects of hedging on reservoir performance,” Water Resources Research, Vol. 26, No. 4, pp. 713-719 (1990). 2.Bekele, E. G., and Nicklow, J. W., “Multiobjective management of ecosystem services by integrative watershed modeling and evolutionary algorithms,” Water Resources Research, 41, W10406, doi: 10.1029/ 2005WR004090 (2005). 3.Burn, D. H., and Yulianti, J. 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