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中文論文名稱 台灣信用卡逾期放款的決定因子---以C商業銀行為例
英文論文名稱 Determinant Factors of Non-Performing Loans of Credit Cards in Taiwan---An Example from a Commercial C Bank
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際商學碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) Executive Master's Program of Business Administration (EMBA) in International Commerce
學年度 95
學期 1
出版年 96
研究生中文姓名 余支萬
研究生英文姓名 Chih-Wan Yu
學號 793400259
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2007-01-12
論文頁數 117頁
口試委員 指導教授-鮑世亨
指導教授-蔡政言
委員-林光賢
委員-楊曉文
委員-楊志海
中文關鍵字 信用卡  徵審  風險管理  風險變數因子  逾期放款  羅吉斯迴歸模型 
英文關鍵字 NPLs  Risk management  Credit card  Credit risk  Credit investigation  Logistic Regression Model 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學商學
中文摘要 本研究旨在分析探討銀行信用卡逾放風險的決定因子。因為近年來台灣銀行業的信用卡發卡泛濫,各銀行力圖搶攻信用卡市場商機,冀求快速高獲利高報酬,不顧所謂的超然穩健的徵審制度,而風險控管或被忽略,或被曲解,或蓄意束之高閣,發卡銀行甚少澈底認真的去執行安控措施。換言之,許多銀行失敗於監控其風險管理。銀行抱持上述的心理態度,肆無忌憚的超量發行信用卡,逾放比率如影隨形,伴隨漫無節制發卡量節節攀升。各銀行極力爭相濫發信用卡數年後的結果,也養成了信用卡持卡人濫用其信用,特別是大多數年青族群,台灣也因此產生了「解放卡奴」的嚴重社會問題。
台灣許多銀行業者深陷高額逾期放款(NPLs)的痛苦深淵無法自拔,累積了大量的逾放風險瀕臨倒閉狀態,有可能再度引爆台灣金融風暴的危機,這些問題終於引起台灣政府及立委的關切。後來,台灣的財政部就依銀行法第61條之1的規定採行監理措施,政府力勸銀行業者應本持保守審慎的態度來發卡。銀行除需加強風險控管外,也應加速打銷呆帳以確保其信用卡的資產品質。
在國際方面,巴塞爾銀行監督管理委員會另立「新巴塞爾資本協定」是以1988年所訂的資本協定為基本架構;它是專為銀行在營運上面臨風險時應有之資本需求,以及改善銀行資本架構的敏感性而設的,藉以強化金融體系的穩定,進一步全球性的倡導銀行資本的適足性,並鼓勵銀行改善其風險管理。連美國聯準會(Fed)前主席葛林斯班也在其演說中強調,銀行應有更多的風險控管系統在其運作及結構上。對大部份銀行而言,「放款」是其明顯最大的「信用風險」來源,銀行在信用風險上需有深切敏感的察覺,並應有加以驗證、衡量、監視、控管等措施。
因此,各發卡銀行應如何去除發卡風險?那些是造成逾期放款(NPLs)的決定因子?銀行應如何創造獲利而不帶來逾放(NPLs)?卡債風暴災難之後,這些都成發卡銀行的熱門話題。本研究嘗試提供一種較佳的方式來辨識逾期放款(NPLs)的決定因子。我們以台灣某 C 商業銀行的信用卡逾期放款(NPLs)為主要研究對象,資料的抽樣期間以該行2003~2005年的發卡量為標的,隨機抽取發卡申請書總計330件,其中229件為「正常戶」;101件為「逾期戶」。而且就信用卡申請書所載之借戶資料,及聯徵中心備查之申戶信用資料各取5個自變數共10個,運用羅吉斯迴歸模型建立發卡授信評量模式。我們的實證發現如下:
一、發卡授信之顯著風險變數為年齡、教育程度(高中)、每月所得收
入、無擔保放款對每月所得比率、每月償還最低額、他行查詢次
數、持信用卡數等七種。
二、輸入十四個相關重要風險變數進入羅吉斯迴歸模型 (Logistic
Regression Model) 計算,結果發現上述七種風險變數對於信
用卡逾期放款戶的產生,確實有一定程度以上的影響力量,信用
卡業務的損益關係該七個因子控管的良窳,建議發卡銀行應嚴密
的追蹤、監控與防範該七因子。
三、有別於其他相關研究,本研究明確指出除依本研究羅吉斯迴歸模
型(LR Model-8)監控七種風險變數因子,篩選優良申戶承作外,
應認真落實「風險管理」,信用卡發卡銀行想要有效防止逾期放
款(NPLs)兩者缺一不可,否則NPLs遲早會再度毀滅信用卡發卡
行。
英文摘要 The main purpose of this research is trying to analyze and
to explore the determinant factors of Non-Performing Loans
(NPLs) of credit cards. Years lately, the Taiwanese banks
massively and abusively issued credit cards attempting to
seize the business opportunities of market share; they actively intended to gain their speedy incomes and high returns. In spite of what is so-called stable and independent
"Credit Investigation System", the risk management was totally to be neglected or to be abandoned on purpose, too. The credit card issuer banks seldom implemented security measures seriously and thoroughly; In other words, those banks failed to supervise their risk management. The above attitudes, which resulted in issuing excessive numbers of credit cards, simultaneously it accompanied the numbers of ever-increasing credit cards with the increasing of NPLs ratio, which was going high. After issuer banks aggressively developed credit card business for years, the rampant issuance of credit card also has led to a widespread abuse
of credit by the cardholder, especially for most of younger
ones.
Many Taiwanese banks eventually fell into traps, they suffered from high NPLs severely, and it seriously incurred “Liberating Card Slave” problem in Taiwanese society. Lots of banks were close to bankruptcy due to poor risk management, it was almost to incur another financial crisis to Taiwan. Finally those problems were deeply concerned by Taiwanese Government and the policy makers. Later on, the Ministry of Finance took a supervisory action. The Government urged banks holding conservative and prudent attitudes to issue their credit cards. They need to enhance banks’ risk management, and they have to accelerate writing off the bad debts of credit cards as quickly as possible to improving their credit-card asset qualities as well. The international context,"Basel II Framework" was built by BCBS. It was set for capital requirements and to improve the capital framework's sensitivity to the risks that banks face. Also the Speech of Chairman Alan Greenspan emphasized that banks should be more on the overall structure and operation of risk-management systems. Bank’s loans are the largest and most obvious source of credit risk; however, banks should have a keen awareness to identify, measure, monitor, and control credit risk
Hence, banks how to remove credit risk when they issue credit cards? Which are the Determinant factors of NPLs of Credit Cards? Banks how to make profit without NPLs? After the disaster of card-debt storm, these became the hot issues among the cards issuer banks. This research tries to offer a better way to recognize determinant factors of credit-card NPLs. We focused on credit-card NPLs of Commercial C Bank in Taiwan. The period of sampled data was from year 2003 to 2005 of issued credit cards. And we randomly sampled the data 330 cases in total, we found that 209 cases were “normal accounts”, and 101 cases were “overdue accounts”. Furthermore, we selected 10 independent variables from application forms and the personal credit standing records at JCIC. Applying Logistic Regression Model to construct a card issuing Evaluation Model, We found the evidences as follows:
1.The analysis of variances reveals the factors in LR Model
with a significant risk, such as the following 7 variables:
Age, Education (high school), Monthly income, Unsecured
loans to monthly income rate, Payment behavior (minimum
payment), Frequency of inquiry, and Holding credit cards.
2.The above related determinant factors of NPLs have a
significant interaction to the occurrence of overdue
accounts, hence the 7 factors chiefly concerned with a
credit card issuer bank will gain profit or gain loss on
its credit card business. We recommend the banks to
supervise, identify, and control them severely.
3.The “LR Model-8” of this thesis differ from the other
relevant studies, we suggest specifically that if the
banks wish to prevent NPLs efficiently; before a card being
approved the banks need to use “LR Model-8” to control
determinant factors of NPLs and having a sound “Risk
Management” system, none of them can be neglected,
otherwise the NPLs will ruin the card-issuer banks again
sooner or later.

論文目次 Table of Contents

Abstract...................................................I
Acknowledgement..........................................III
Table of Contents.........................................IV
List of Tables............................................VI
List of Figures..........................................VII
Chapter 1 Introduction.....................................1
1.1 Background and Motive..................................1
1.2 Thesis Purpose.........................................8
1.3 Thesis Framework......................................12
1.4 Thesis Scope..........................................13
1.5 Reasons of making this Thesis.........................15
Chapter 2 Literature Review ..............................16
2.1 Credit-lending business and its risk..................16
2.2 Banks assess customer’s credit by 5p-principle.......17
2.3 How to Evaluate a Consumer Loan.......................19
2.4 The Characteristics of Consumer Loan..................20
2.5 The Factors of Assessment of Consumer-Loan Credit.....20
2.6 Relevant Studies of Credit Card.......................21
2.7 The Derivation and Definition of Credit Card..........26
2.8 The Status Quo of Credit Card Business in Taiwan......37
2.9 The Measures of Credit Investigation..................55
Chapter 3 Research Design.................................26
3.1 Conventional Credit Rating Model......................63
3.2 Research Approach.....................................66
3.3 Research Method.......................................68
3.4 Research Structure....................................87
Chapter 4 Research Model..................................90
4.1 Theoretical Model: Logistic Regression................90
4.2 Empirical Model: Model-Building for Logistic Regression ..........................................................92
Chapter 5 Conclusion and Suggestion......................107
5.1 Conclusion of the Thesis.............................107
5.2 Suggestion of the Thesis.............................108
References...............................................110
Appendix.................................................112
List of Tables
Table 1-1 Non-performing Loans Ratio and Amount Statistics 02
Table 1-2 Consumer Loans 03
Table 1-3 The World’s Revolving Credit Interest Rates of Credit Cards 05
Table 1-4 National Economic Trends of ROC 07
Table 1-5 Important Credit Card Business and Financial Information 08
Table 2-1 The relevant studies of credit card risk management 25
Table 2-2 The World Top Five Largest Credit-card Brands in Taiwan 38
Table 2-3 Important Credit Card Business and Financial Information 39
Table 2-4 The Stratistics of Credit-Card Business in Taiwan 40
Table 3-1 Credit Grade and Credit Limit for Credit Card 64
Table 3-2 Credit Scoring List for Credit Card 65
Table 3-3 The Credit card Information of C Bank 69
Table 3-4 Classified Variables and Definitions 70
Table 3-5 Cross Tabulation of Age between Normal and Overdue 76
Table 3-6 Cross Tabulation of Sex between Normal and Overdue 77
Table 3-7 Cross Tabulation of Education between Normal and Overdue 78
Table 3-8 Cross Tabulation of Employment between Normal and Overdue 79
Table 3-9 Cross Tabulation of Monthly Income between Normal and Overdue 80
Table 3-10 Cross Tabulation of Unsecured Loans Rate between Normal and Overdue 81
Table 3-11 Cross Tabulation of Amount Owed between Normal and Overdue 82
Table 3-12 Cross Tabulation of Payment Behavior between Normal and Overdue 83
Table 3-13 Cross Tabulation of Frequency of Inquiry between Normal and Overdue 84
Table 3-14 Cross Tabulation of Holding Credit Card between Normal and Overdue 85
Table 3-15 The Chi-Square (χ2) Test Statistic for Normal and Overdue Accounts 86
Table 4-1 The Definition of Dummy Variables 92
Table 4-2 The Estimation Results (1) 93
Table 4-3 The Estimation Results (2) 94
Table 4-4 ANOVA Table 94
Table 4-5 Model Summary 94
Table 4-6 Significance and Remark of Coefficients of Model-1 95
Table 4-7 Significance and Remark of Coefficients of Model-8 96
List of Figures
Figure 1-1 Consumer Loan VS Revolving Credit Stratistical Chart 04
Figure 1-2 The Consumer Loan Ratios in Taiwan of Year 2004 04
Figure 1-3 Per Capita National Income VS Revolving Credit of Credit Card 07
Figure 1-4 The Flow Chart of this Thesis 12
Figure 2-1 The Credit-Card Interchange Settlement flowchart of NCCC 34
Figure 2-2 How ‘s a credit card working in a public sector 36
Figure 2-3 The World Top Five Largest Credit-Card Brands in Taiwan 38
Figure 2-4 The Credit Card Business in Taiwan 40
Figure 2-5 The Governing Principles of Credit Card Business in Taiwan 42
Figure 2-6 The Flowchart of Credit Investigation 61
Figure 3-1 Cross Tabulation of Age between Normal and Overdue 76
Figure 3-2 Cross Tabulation of Sex between Normal and Overdue 77
Figure 3-3 Cross Tabulation of Education between Normal and Overdue 78
Figure 3-4 Cross Tabulation of Employment between Normal and Overdue 79
Figure 3-5 Cross Tabulation of Monthly Income between Normal and Overdue 80
Figure 3-6 Cross Tabulation of Unsecured Loans Rate between Normal and Overdue 81
Figure 3-7 Cross Tabulation of Amount Owed between Normal and Overdue 82
Figure 3-8 Cross Tabulation of Payment Behavior between Normal and Overdue 83
Figure 3-9 Cross Tabulation of Frequency of Inquiry between Normal and Overdue 84
Figure 3-10 Cross Tabulation of Holding Credit Cards between Normal and Overdue 85
Figure 3-11 Research data processing flow diagram 87
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