系統識別號 | U0002-1108200513185300 |
---|---|
DOI | 10.6846/TKU.2005.00843 |
論文名稱(中文) | 美國在聯大重要問題案策略之決策過程(1961-1971) |
論文名稱(英文) | Decision-making process of the US on the important question resolution in the U.N.(1961-1971) |
第三語言論文名稱 | |
校院名稱 | 淡江大學 |
系所名稱(中文) | 美國研究所碩士班 |
系所名稱(英文) | Graduate Institute of American Studies |
外國學位學校名稱 | |
外國學位學院名稱 | |
外國學位研究所名稱 | |
學年度 | 93 |
學期 | 2 |
出版年 | 94 |
研究生(中文) | 王湘菁 |
研究生(英文) | Xiang-Jing Wang |
學號 | 690220040 |
學位類別 | 碩士 |
語言別 | 繁體中文 |
第二語言別 | |
口試日期 | 2005-06-20 |
論文頁數 | 165頁 |
口試委員 |
指導教授
-
陳一新
委員 - 高朗 委員 - 黃奎博 |
關鍵字(中) |
重要問題決議案 中國代表權 外交決策理論 賽局理論 美國中國政策 |
關鍵字(英) |
Important Question Resolution Chinese Representation Foreign Policy Decision Making Game Theory U.S. China Policy |
第三語言關鍵字 | |
學科別分類 | |
中文摘要 |
本論文以美國國務院出版的美國外交關係及甘迺迪、詹森和尼克森時期之重要官員回憶錄及外交期刊為主要資料來源,運用個案研究法及比較研究法探討美國政府對聯合國中國代表權問題的決策過程,並且依據艾里遜的決策模式理論的理性模式、組織模式及官僚模式來分析美國政府對重要問題案的決策過程。 研究發現在重要問題案之理性決策模式中,決策者受到國內政治、國際戰略構想、個人的意識型態及對手國之國家本質影響甚深。甘迺迪在國會、利益團體、媒體及中共侵略本質不變的壓力下接受重要問題案;詹森則因為個人的反共意識及亞洲和平維護之構想影響下堅持沿用重要問題案為最終策略以圍堵中共;而尼克森則是為了實現聯中制蘇之戰略使用變化重要問題案,表面上演圍堵中共戲碼而實質上卻造成重要問題案失敗而台灣退出聯合國。在組織決策模式中,組織確實受組織文化之囿而影響所提供的政策選項,但最終這些政策選項仍有可能被採納成為政策。重要問題案雖有濃厚的圍堵色彩,主導中國政策的國務院遠東事務司卻能成功地讓甘迺迪與詹森採用此案作為美國的中國代表權策略。在官僚決策模式中,決策者們會因為各司其職而分別持有特定的立場,在此狀況下,各決策者的議價優勢則取決於他與上及之間的行動管道。國務卿魯斯克由於未取得甘迺迪信任而喪失其議價優勢;之後,在詹森時期他卻因為贏得詹森的青睞而掌握議價優勢;國家安全顧問季辛吉能取信於尼克森也是由於他比國務卿羅吉斯更能獲得總統的信任。 從筆者對三個模式的假設驗證中得到的結論是艾里遜的決策理論提供相當有用的架構,但適用程度仍視個別案例的不同情形而定。 |
英文摘要 |
This study is about the decision-making process of the US on the Important Question Resolution from 1961 to 1971 which based on three decision-making paradigms— Rational Actor Model(RAM), Organizational Behavior Model(OBM) and Governmental Politics Model(GPM) — formalized by Allison in the case study of Cuban missile crisis. A systematic empirical evaluation is undertaken to determine the applicability of the models. By applying RAM in the case, it shows that a rational actor is not always rational. Decision makers' ideology, strategy planning and the other domestic factors such as the press from the interests groups, media and the Congress will influence the decision maker. By applying of OBM in the case, it shows that organizational behavior is often dominated by the organizational culture however the culture doesn't necessarily lower the possibility of the policy option to be adopted as a policy. By applying GPM in the case, it reveals that policy makers have to control the action channel to take the bargaining advantages and to persuade the final decision maker successfully. The results of the study indicate that Allison's three decision making paradigms are not applicable for all cases but they do offer a good framework for analyzing foreign policy. |
第三語言摘要 | |
論文目次 |
第一章 緒論............................................1 第一節 論文背景.....................................1 第二節 文獻探討.....................................2 第三節 研究目的與問題...............................6 第四節 研究方法.....................................7 第五節 研究架構與研究限制..........................12 第二章 理論與假設.....................................14 第一節 理性決策模式................................14 第二節 組織決策模式................................21 第三節 官僚決策模式................................23 第四節 研究假設....................................27 第三章 理性模式看重要問題案之決策過程.................30 第一節 理性模式看甘迺迪在重要問題案之決策過程......32 第二節 從理性模式看詹森在重要問題案的決策過程......45 第三節 理性模式看尼克森在重要問題案的決策過程......59 第四節 小結........................................74 第四章 組織決策模式看重要問題案之決策過程.............78 第一節 對重要問題決策影響力低的駐外使節團..........81 第二節 主導重要問題案的遠東事務司和國際組織司......86 第三節 左傾的的政策計畫處和情報研究司..............92 第四節 小結........................................97 第五章 官僚決策模式看重要問題案決策過程..............100 第一節 甘迺迪、詹森、尼克森與第一層官僚的互動.....102 第二節 國務院在重要問題案的決策角色...............106 第三節 國家安全會議在重要問題案決策中的角色.......123 第四節 國家安全會議和國務院之爭...................129 第五節 小結.......................................133 第六章 結論..........................................135 附錄 ................................................143 附錄一............................................143 附錄二............................................144 附錄三............................................145 附錄四............................................146 圖表目錄 圖1-1 1961-1971聯合國重要問題案票數統計圖..........13 圖2-1 研究概念圖...................................28 表3-1 甘迺迪政府時期美中賽局意示表.................43 圖3-1 甘迺迪政府美中競賽賽局樹枝圖.................44 表3-2 詹森政府時期美中賽局意示表...................57 圖3-2 詹森政府美中議題假設樹枝圖...................58 表3-3 尼克森政府時期美中賽局意示表.................74 表6-1 三大決策模式假設驗證表......................140 |
參考文獻 |
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