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系統識別號 U0002-1108200513185300
中文論文名稱 美國在聯大重要問題案策略之決策過程(1961-1971)
英文論文名稱 Decision-making process of the US on the important question resolution in the U.N.(1961-1971)
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 美國研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of American Studies
學年度 93
學期 2
出版年 94
研究生中文姓名 王湘菁
研究生英文姓名 Xiang-Jing Wang
學號 690220040
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2005-06-20
論文頁數 165頁
口試委員 指導教授-陳一新
委員-高朗
委員-黃奎博
中文關鍵字 重要問題決議案  中國代表權  外交決策理論  賽局理論  美國中國政策 
英文關鍵字 Important Question Resolution  Chinese Representation  Foreign Policy Decision Making  Game Theory  U.S. China Policy 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 本論文以美國國務院出版的美國外交關係及甘迺迪、詹森和尼克森時期之重要官員回憶錄及外交期刊為主要資料來源,運用個案研究法及比較研究法探討美國政府對聯合國中國代表權問題的決策過程,並且依據艾里遜的決策模式理論的理性模式、組織模式及官僚模式來分析美國政府對重要問題案的決策過程。
研究發現在重要問題案之理性決策模式中,決策者受到國內政治、國際戰略構想、個人的意識型態及對手國之國家本質影響甚深。甘迺迪在國會、利益團體、媒體及中共侵略本質不變的壓力下接受重要問題案;詹森則因為個人的反共意識及亞洲和平維護之構想影響下堅持沿用重要問題案為最終策略以圍堵中共;而尼克森則是為了實現聯中制蘇之戰略使用變化重要問題案,表面上演圍堵中共戲碼而實質上卻造成重要問題案失敗而台灣退出聯合國。在組織決策模式中,組織確實受組織文化之囿而影響所提供的政策選項,但最終這些政策選項仍有可能被採納成為政策。重要問題案雖有濃厚的圍堵色彩,主導中國政策的國務院遠東事務司卻能成功地讓甘迺迪與詹森採用此案作為美國的中國代表權策略。在官僚決策模式中,決策者們會因為各司其職而分別持有特定的立場,在此狀況下,各決策者的議價優勢則取決於他與上及之間的行動管道。國務卿魯斯克由於未取得甘迺迪信任而喪失其議價優勢;之後,在詹森時期他卻因為贏得詹森的青睞而掌握議價優勢;國家安全顧問季辛吉能取信於尼克森也是由於他比國務卿羅吉斯更能獲得總統的信任。
從筆者對三個模式的假設驗證中得到的結論是艾里遜的決策理論提供相當有用的架構,但適用程度仍視個別案例的不同情形而定。
英文摘要 This study is about the decision-making process of the US on the Important Question Resolution from 1961 to 1971 which based on three decision-making paradigms— Rational Actor Model(RAM), Organizational Behavior Model(OBM) and Governmental Politics Model(GPM) — formalized by Allison in the case study of Cuban missile crisis.
A systematic empirical evaluation is undertaken to determine the applicability of the models. By applying RAM in the case, it shows that a rational actor is not always rational. Decision makers' ideology, strategy planning and the other domestic factors such as the press from the interests groups, media and the Congress will influence the decision maker. By applying of OBM in the case, it shows that organizational behavior is often dominated by the organizational culture however the culture doesn't necessarily lower the possibility of the policy option to be adopted as a policy. By applying GPM in the case, it reveals that policy makers have to control the action channel to take the bargaining advantages and to persuade the final decision maker successfully.
The results of the study indicate that Allison's three decision making paradigms are not applicable for all cases but they do offer a good framework for analyzing foreign policy.
論文目次 第一章 緒論............................................1
第一節 論文背景.....................................1
第二節 文獻探討.....................................2
第三節 研究目的與問題...............................6
第四節 研究方法.....................................7
第五節 研究架構與研究限制..........................12
第二章 理論與假設.....................................14
第一節 理性決策模式................................14
第二節 組織決策模式................................21
第三節 官僚決策模式................................23
第四節 研究假設....................................27
第三章 理性模式看重要問題案之決策過程.................30
第一節 理性模式看甘迺迪在重要問題案之決策過程......32
第二節 從理性模式看詹森在重要問題案的決策過程......45
第三節 理性模式看尼克森在重要問題案的決策過程......59
第四節 小結........................................74
第四章 組織決策模式看重要問題案之決策過程.............78
第一節 對重要問題決策影響力低的駐外使節團..........81
第二節 主導重要問題案的遠東事務司和國際組織司......86
第三節 左傾的的政策計畫處和情報研究司..............92
第四節 小結........................................97
第五章 官僚決策模式看重要問題案決策過程..............100
第一節 甘迺迪、詹森、尼克森與第一層官僚的互動.....102
第二節 國務院在重要問題案的決策角色...............106
第三節 國家安全會議在重要問題案決策中的角色.......123
第四節 國家安全會議和國務院之爭...................129
第五節 小結.......................................133
第六章 結論..........................................135
附錄 ................................................143
附錄一............................................143
附錄二............................................144
附錄三............................................145
附錄四............................................146
圖表目錄
圖1-1 1961-1971聯合國重要問題案票數統計圖..........13
圖2-1 研究概念圖...................................28
表3-1 甘迺迪政府時期美中賽局意示表.................43
圖3-1 甘迺迪政府美中競賽賽局樹枝圖.................44
表3-2 詹森政府時期美中賽局意示表...................57
圖3-2 詹森政府美中議題假設樹枝圖...................58
表3-3 尼克森政府時期美中賽局意示表.................74
表6-1 三大決策模式假設驗證表......................140
參考文獻 參考書目
中文書目
1.王正華編,《中華民國史料彙編》,台北,國史館,2001,頁1。
2.王幼樵、肖效欽,《當代中國史》,北京:首都師範大學出版社,1994年,頁245。
3.包宗和,《美國對華政策之轉折:尼克森時期之決策過程與背景》,台北:五南,民國91年,頁9。
4.高朗,《中華民國外交關係之演變 1951-1972》,台北:五南圖書出版社,1993年。
5. 陳一新,《斷交後的中美關係》,台北:五南,1995 年,頁21-22。
6. 陳志奇,《美國對華政策三十年》台北:中華日報社,1981 年。
7. 費正清《費正清對華回憶錄》,上海:知識出版社,1991 年,頁487。
8. 資中筠、何迪編,《美國對台政策機密檔案 1949-1989》,上海:海峽評論社,
  1990 年。
9. 錢復,《錢復回憶錄》,台北:天下遠見,2005 年,151 頁。
10. 戴萬欽,《甘廼迪政府對中蘇共分裂之認知與反應》,台北:中正,民國81
年,頁393。


英文書目
Governmental Publications:

Foreign Relation of United States 1961-1963 XXII
1. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc. 8. Memorandum From Robert W. Komer of the National Security Council Staff to the President’s Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Bundy), March 1, 1961.
2. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc. 9. Memorandum of Conversation, March 14, 1961.
3. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc. 13. Memorandum of Conversation, March 3, 1961.
4. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc. 18. Memorandum of Conversation, April 5, 1961.
5. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc. 20. Memorandum From the Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern Affairs (Steeves) to Secretary of State Rusk, April 15, 1961.
6. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc. 27. Memorandum of Conversation, May 24, 1961.
7. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc. 44. Memorandum of Conversation, July 28, 1961.
8. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc. 48. Memorandum of Conversation, August 5, 1961.
9. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc.70. Memorandum From Secretary of State Rusk to President Kennedy, October 10, 1961.
10. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc.76. Draft Paper Prepared in the Policy Planning Council, October 26, 1961.
11. FRUS 1961-1963, Vol. XXII, Doc.196. Letter From the Assistant Secretary of State for Far Eastern Affairs (Hilsman) to the Representative to the United Nations (Stevenson), December 19, 1963.

Foreign Relation of United States 1964-1968 XXX
12. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc. 66. Memorandum for the Record, November 18, 1964
13. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc. 72. Memorandum of Conversation November 30, 1964.
14. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc. 106. Memorandum of Conversation September 23, 1965.
15. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc.141. Memorandum From the President’s Special Assistant (Komer) to President Johnson.
16. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc. 144. Letter From the Representative to United Nations (Goldberg) to President Johnson.
17. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc. 149. Memorandum From Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson.
18. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc. 202. Telegram From the Department of State to the Embassy in Canada, November 9, 1966.
19. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc.217. Telegram From the White House Situation Room to President Johnson at the LBJ Ranch in Texas, November 26, 1966.
20. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc.271. National Intelligence Estimate, June 29, 1967.
21. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc.297. Memorandum for the Record, February 2, 1968.
22. FRUS 1964-1968, Vol. XXX, Doc.302. Memorandum From Secretary of State Rusk to President Johnson, February 22, 1968.

Foreign Relation of United States 1969-1976 V
23. FRUS 1969-1976, V, Doc. 297. Memorandum of Conversation, September 29, 1970.
24. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc.305. Memorandum of Conversation, October 28, 1970.
25. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc. 310. Memorandum From Secretary of State Rogers to President Nixon., November 18, 1970.
26. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc. 311. Memorandum From Secretary of State Rogers to President Nixon, November 18, 1970.
27. FURS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc. 321. Memorandum of Conversation January 16, 1971.
28. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc. 341. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon, undated.
29. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc. 342. Minutes of Meeting of the National Security Council, March 25, 1971.
30. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc. 349. Record of Conversation, April, 23, 1971.
31. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc. 354. Memorandum for the President’s File by the President’s Deputy Special Assistant for National Security Affairs (Haig), May 21, 1971.
32. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc. 357. Memorandum From Secretary of State Rogers to President Nixon, undated.
33. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc.358. Meeting Among President Nixon, Secretary of State Rogers, and the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger), May 27, 1971.
34. FRUS 1969-1976, Vol. V, Doc.377. Editorial Note

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35. Smith, Adam. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. New York: Modern Library, 1994..
36. Allison, Graham and Philip Zelikow. Essence of Decision. New York: AW Longman, 1999.
37. Allison, Graham T. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Boston: Little, Brown, 1971.
38. Andrianopoulos,Gerry. The NSC and the Struggle for Control of US National Security Policy. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1991.
39. Argyris, Christopher. “Do You Recognize Yourself ?” FSJ, January 1967.
40. Bachrack, Stanley D. The Committee of One Million: “China Lobby” Politics, 1953-1971. New York: Columbia University Press, 1976.
41. Bowker, Mike and Phil Williams. Superpower Détente: A Reappraisal. London: Sage Publications, 1988.
42. Clark Clifford, “The Presidency As I Have Seen It,” in Emmet John Hughes, The Living Presidency. New York: Coward, McCann, and Geoghegan, 1973.
43. Chester L. Cooper, The Lost Crusade: America in Vietnam. New York, 1970.
44. Destler, M. Presidents Bureaucrats and Foreign Policy: The Policy of Organizational Reform. New Jersey: Princeton University Press,1972.
45. Fulbright, J. W. Old Myths and New Realities, New York: Random House,1964.
46. George, Alexander L. “The Case for Multiple Advocacy in Making Foreign Policy”, The American Political Science Review, Volume 66, Issue 3, September, 1972.
47. Liska, George F. Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1962.
48. Haffa, Robert P. “Allison’s Models: An Analytic Approach to Bureaucratic Politics,”in John E. Endicott and Roy W. Stafford, eds., American Defense Policy, 4th ed. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1977.
49. Halperin, Morton. Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy. Washington, D.C.:The Brookings, 1974.
50. Hero, Alfred O, Mass Media and World Affairs: Studies in Citizen Participation in International Relations . Boston: World Peace Foundation, 1959.
51. Hilsman, Roger. To Move a Nation: The Politics of Foreign Policy in the Administration of John F. Kennedy. New York: Doubleday & Company, Inc., 1967.
52. Hummel, Ralph P. The Bureaucratic Experience: A Critique of Life in the Modern Organization. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1994.
53. Huntington, The Common Defense. New York: Columbia University Press, 1961.
54. Kaplan, Morton A. System and Process in International Politics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1957.
55. Kusnitz, Leoard A. Public Opinion And Foreign Policy: American’s China Policy, 1949-1979. Westport, Connecticut: Greenwood Press, 1984.
56. Lindblom, Charles E.“The Science of Muddling Through,”Public Administration Review, XIX . Spring 1959.
57. Liska, George F. Nations in Alliance: The Limits of Interdependence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1962.
58. Moorsteen, Richard and Morton Abramowitz. Remaking China Policy: U.S.-China Relations and Governmental Decision-Making. MA: Harvard University Press, 1971.
59. Morgenthau, Hans. J. Politics Among Nations. New York: Knopf, 1973.
60. Neustadt, Richard D. Presidential Power: The Politics of Leadership. New York: Wiley, 1960.
61. Nixon, Richard. The Memories of Richard Nixon. New York: Touchstone, 1990.
62. Nixon, Richard M. Seize the Moment: America’s Challenge in a One-Superpower World. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992.
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64. Reeves, Richard. President Kennedy: Profile of Power. New York: Touchstone, 1994.
65. Rosati, Jerel A. The Politics of United States Foreign Policy. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1994.
66. Rubin, Barry. Secrets of State: The State Department and the Struggle Over U.S. Foreign Policy., 1985.
67. Rusk, Dean. As I Saw It. New York: W.W. Norton & Company ,1990.
68. Schlesinger, Arthur Jr.. The Dynamics of World Power: A Documentary History of U.S. Foreign Policy 1945-1973. New York: Chilsea House, 1973.
69. Schulzinger, Robert and Henry Kissinger. Doctor of Diplomacy. New York: Columbia University Press, 1989.
70. Smith, Adam. An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. New York: Modern Library, 1994.
71. Snyder, Glenn H. and Paul Diesing. Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and system Structure in International Crises. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1977.
72. Sorensen, Theodore. Kennedy. New York: Harper and Row, 1965.
73. Bachrack, Stanley D. The Committee of One Million: “China Lobby” Politics1953-1971. New York: Columbia University Press, 1976.
74. Steele, A. T., The American People and China. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1966.
75. Stoessinger, John G. The United Nations and the Superpowers: China, Russia and America. New York: Hunter College, 1976.
76. Kuo-Chang Wang, United Nations Voting on Chinese Representation. Taipei: Institute of America Culture Academic Sinica, 1984.
77. Vertzberger, Yaacov. The World in Their Minds: Information Processing, Cognition and perception in Foreign Policy Decision Making. Stanford: Standford University Press, 1990.

Periodicals:
78. Bennett, Peter G. “Modelling Decisions in International Relations: Game Theory and Beyond.” Mershon International Studies Review, Vol.39, No. 1. April, 1995.
79. Clifford, J. Garry. “Bureaucratic Politics.” The Journal of American History, Volume 77, Issue 1. June, 1990.
80. Destler, I. M. “National Security Advice to U.S. Presidents: Some Lessons from Thirty Years”, World Politics, Vol.29, No.2. January 1977.
81. Lijphart, Arend, ”Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method”, American Political Science Review, Vol.65, No.3. September 1971.
82. Mohr, Lawrence B. “The concept of organization Goal,” The American Political Science Review, Vol. 67, No. 2. Jun. 1973.
83. New York Times, October 25, 1968.
84. Newsweek, October 23, 1964.
85. Nisbet, Robert. “Project Camelot: An Autopsy,” The Public Interest. Fall 1966.
86. Olson, William C. “President, Congress and American Foreign Policy: Confrontation or Collaboration?,” International Affairs, Vol. 52, No. 4, Oct.1976.
87. Rosenau, James N. “Comparative Foreign Policy: Fad, Fantasy, or Field?” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 3, September, 1968.
88. Scott, Andrew M. “The Department of State: Formal Organization and Informal Culture,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 13, No. 1. Mar. 1969
89. Snidal, Duncan. “The Game Theory of International Politics.” World Politics, Vol. 38, No. 1. October, 1985.
90. Sylvan, Donald A. “Analyzing Political Decision Making from an Information-Processing Perspective,” American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 34, No. 1. Feb. 1990.
91. Thomson, James C. Jr. “On the Making of U.S. China Policy, 1961-9: A Study in Bureaucratic”, China Quarterly, Vol.50, Apr.-Jun. 1972.
92. Vertzberger, Yaacov. “Bureaucratic-Organizational Politics and Information Processing in a Developing State,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 28, No. 1. Mar. 1984.
93. Warren, Chirstopher. “Ceasefire Between the Branches: A Compact in Foreign Affairs,” Foreign Affairs. Summer 1982.
94. Turbin, William N. “Foreign Relations, Yes; Foreign Policy, No,” Foreign Policy, No. 8, Fall, 1972

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