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系統識別號 U0002-1006201116485300
中文論文名稱 台商赴大陸投資與台灣總體經濟之動態關係研究
英文論文名稱 Study on Dynamic Relationship between China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman and Taiwan Macro Economy
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 全球華商經營管理數位學習碩士在職專班
系所名稱(英) E-Learning Executive Master's Program of Business Administration (EMBA) in Global Chinese Management
學年度 99
學期 2
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 楊仲豪
研究生英文姓名 Chung-Hao Yang
學號 797670030
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
第二語文別 英文
口試日期 2011-05-23
論文頁數 47頁
口試委員 指導教授-謝志柔
委員-聶建中
委員-陳光榮
中文關鍵字 台商  大陸投資  總體經濟  時間序列 
英文關鍵字 Taiwanese Businessman  China FDI  Macro Economy  Time Series 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本研究運用時間序列多項方法,深入研究台商赴大陸投資和物價、工資、匯率、出口、失業率五個總體經濟變數間的互動關係。以提供企業或是廠商於未來是否該進行赴大陸投資,甚或政府決策單位是否應擴大開放台商赴大陸投資的參考。
本研究先經由單根檢定之測試,發現台商赴大陸投資的金額與五個總體經濟變數均符合I(1)的序列型態。而由Johansen共整合檢定得知,台商赴大陸投資的行為與總體經濟存在著長期均衡關係。
由衝擊反應函數來看,台商赴大陸投資的金額對其本身產生自發性衝擊時,將會顯著影響其他未赴大陸投資企業從事赴大陸投資的意願;而物價及工資對台商赴大陸投資的金額變化皆有負向的衝擊。而失業率受到台商赴大陸投資金額的衝擊後,出現一個顯著而且持續性的反應的影響。
由變異數分解的結果來看,左右企業赴大陸投資的最主要原因還是來自於每一個月台商赴大陸投資金額的變化,另外工資對企業從事大陸投資活動之波動(變異)產生的解釋能力也隨著時間的增長而不斷增加,而就總體的環境變異與赴大陸投資金額而言,赴大陸投資的金額只有在解釋失業率之波動時,具有較高的解釋力。另外,大體而言,當代表總體經濟環境的五個變數〈物價、工資、匯率、出口、失業率〉發生變動時,均顯示出其本身對自身之變異產生有較好的解釋能力。
而在因果關係檢定所得到的結果為,台商赴大陸投資金額僅領先於失業率,而代表其他四個總體經濟變數〈物價、工資、匯率、出口〉均領先於台商赴大陸投資金額的變動,總而言之,總體經濟環境的變化可做為未來是否會出現赴大陸投資風潮的一個指標,而赴大陸投資金額的變化也可視為領先景氣變動的一個參考值。
英文摘要 This study applies various time-series methodologies to investigate the dynamic relationship among variables of China FDI from Taiwanese businessman and Taiwan macro economy including inflation, wage, exchange rate, export and unemployment. The purpose of this study is to propose suitable investment strategies for Taiwanese businessman when making the China FDI decision and appropriate polices for Taiwan government when making the cross-strait FDI polices.
We first employ the unit root test for each variable and find that all the variables considered are I(1) non-stationary series. The further test of cointegration finds that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables considered in the paper
Illustrated from the impulse response function, we see that the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman is significantly responded to the shock of itself. Furthermore, the response of the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman is negatively related to the shock of inflation and wage, and on the other hand, positively and consistently related to the shock of unemployment.
The results of variance decomposition show that the fluctuation of the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman is mainly explained by itself. However, wage increases it’s explaining power to the fluctuation of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman when time pass-by. On the other hand, the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman can only explain the fluctuation of unemployment rate. Nevertheless, the fluctuations of each of the macro economic variables are mostly explained by each of the variables.
The final results from the Granger causality test show that the amount of China FDI from Taiwanese Businessman only precedes the unemployment rate, while as it is preceded by the rests of the macro economic variables, inflation, wage, exchange rate and export.
論文目次 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 6
第三節 研究架構與流程 6
第二章 文獻探討 8
第一節 台商赴大陸投資相關研究 8
第二節 台商赴大陸投資與台灣總體經濟之關係 9
第三章 研究方法 11
第一節 單根檢定 13
第二節 共整合與誤差修正模型 17
第三節 Granger因果關係 24
第四節 衝擊反應函數 27
第五節 變異數分解 29
第四章 實證結果與分析 32
第一節 模型設定與資料分析 32
第二節 檢定結果與實證分析 33
第五章 結論與建議 43
第一節 結論 43
第二節 建議 44
參考文獻 45
中文文獻 45
英文文獻 46


表目錄

表1-1:1991至2000年間我國赴大陸投資概況 3
表1-2:2001至2010年間我國赴大陸投資概況 3
表1-3:1991至2000年間兩岸經貿統計 5
表1-4:2001至2010年間兩岸經貿統計 5
表4-1:各變數之ADF單根檢定結果表 34
表4-2:變數的共整合檢定結果表 36
表4-3:各變數的因果關係表 37
表4-4:預測誤差變異數分解結果表 41



圖目錄

圖1-1 研究流程圖 7
圖4-1 各變數之衝擊反應圖 39
圖4-2 各變數之變異數分解圖 42

參考文獻 中文文獻
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林彩梅, 陳怡伶 (2009) 台灣電子資訊業對大陸投資與貿易關係之研究-ARIMA移轉函數模式分析, 多國籍企業管理評論, 3卷2期, 45-65.
林淑瓊, (2004) FDI投資成立研發中心對企業創新能力之影響-以臺灣業者投資中國大陸線上遊戲產業為例, 遠景基金會季刊, 5卷, 105 -152 .
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高孔廉 (2003), 臺灣經濟需要宏觀的兩岸經貿政策, 展望與探索, 1:5 , 38-52
高長 (1996), 製造業赴大陸投資對臺灣經濟的影響, 國立政治大學學報, 73(下), 209-234
黃智聰, 歐陽宏 (2006) 世界各國對中國大陸直接投資決定因素之研究, 遠景基金會季刊, 7, 139-178.
葉日崧 郭麗華 (2006), 投資大陸對台灣經濟的影響與展望, 台灣管理評論國際學報, 9眷1期, 1-34
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英文文獻
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