淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)
進階搜尋


下載電子全文限經由淡江IP使用) 
系統識別號 U0002-0906201716480700
中文論文名稱 用情境論資本主義的未來: 資本主義的心理依附與其前景終結之衡突
英文論文名稱 An inquiry on the futures of capitalism using scenarios: The conflict between the psychological attachment to capitalism and the prospect of its dissolution
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 未來學研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of Futures Studies
學年度 105
學期 2
出版年 106
研究生中文姓名 安利
研究生英文姓名 Alessandro Fergnani
電子信箱 alessandro.fergnani@gmail.com
學號 604705029
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2017-06-06
論文頁數 79頁
口試委員 指導教授-霍珍妮
委員-陳瑞貴
委員-張翰璧
中文關鍵字 資本主義的未來  心理學  情境  意識形態衝突 
英文關鍵字 Futures of capitalism  psychology  scenarios  ideological conflicts 
學科別分類 學科別人文學哲學
中文摘要 本論文將揭示資本主義的心理原因,以解釋個人對資本積累的依賴並進行爭辯。這種依附正在產生一種全球性的意識形態衝突,因為它與指向資本主義解體的社會,技術和經濟趨勢相衝突。 最後,它將為資本主義的未來創造四種情景,以便探討今後如何展開這種衝突的不同方式,並找出一個可以克服這一種衝突的最佳方案。
英文摘要 This thesis analyses the psychological reasons behind capitalistic practices, it uncovers the mechanisms through which capitalism has contributed to satisfy hardwired human instincts of selfishness, and explains capitalism’s emergence and subsequent legitimization in the global worldview from a psychological standpoint. In view of this analysis, it argues that capitalism is a social instrument with the function of satisfy hardwired psychological requirements through economic activity, and that the psychological attachment to capitalism should be taken into consideration in thinking of its possible futures as a global ideological conflict is emerging between the psychological attachment to capitalism and current trends pointing towards its dissolution.
To analyze the possible ways this conflict might develop in the future, this thesis puts forward four exploratory qualitative scenarios of the future of capitalism using Jim Dator’s scenarios archetypes. In each scenario, the ideological conflict between the psychological attachment to capitalism and the prospect of its dissolution will be manifested in different extents and have different outcomes. A preferable scenario (Transformation) is then identified for its lower level of ideological conflict. In the preferable scenario, thanks to scientific knowledge on the way human nature responds to nudges and incentives, public policy specialists will activate human tendency for respect and reciprocity, and a shift in human understanding towards new economic values will be enacted. Preliminary policy guidelines to achieve this scenario are finally discussed.
論文目次 1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………1
1.1 Background of study…………………………………………………………………3
1.2 Problem statement…………………………………………………………………...5
1.3 Research objective…………………………………………………………………...6
1.4 Study significance……………………………………………………………………7
1.5 Chapter outline………………………………………………………………………7
2. Literature review……………………………………………………………………………...8
2.1 Overview……………………………………………………………………………...8
2.2 Theoretical background……………………………………………………………..9
2.3 The psychological reasons of capitalistic practices…………….........……………13
2.4 An explanation of capitalism’s emergence from a psychological standpoint…...23
2.5 The justification and legitimization of capitalism………………………………...24
2.6 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………..28
3. Four scenarios of capitalism’s future of conflict……………………………………………29
3.1 Overview………………………………………….…………………………………29
3.2 Trends analysis………………………....…………………………………………...29
3.3 The ideological conflict between the psychological attachment to capitalism and the trends pointing towards its dissolution: a future triangle…………………………37
3.4 Four scenarios of capitalism’s future of conflict………………………………......42
• Scenario 1, Continued Growth: the techno-optimist scenario……………45
• Scenario 2, Disarray: conflicts are too great……………………………….48
• Scenario 3, Steady State: new-leftist policies………………………………51
• Scenario 4, Transformation: a shift in human understanding……………53
4. Discussion……………………………………………………………………………………..60
4.1 Overview…………………………………………………………………………….60
4.2 Scenarios discussion…………………………………………………………..…….61
4.3 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………...68
5. Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………….69
6. References…………………………………………………………………………………….70
7. Glossary………………………………………………………………………………...……..78

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Table 1.0: Instincts satisfied through capitalistic practices……………………………….....23
Table 2.0: Summary table of the four scenarios on the future of capitalism………..……...58
Table 3.0: Summary table of the continued growth scenario………………………..………59
Table 4.0: Summary table of the disarray scenario……………………………………..……59
Table 5.0 Summary table of the steady state scenario………………………………………..59
Table 6.0: Summary table of the transformation scenario……………………………..……60
Fig.1: The future triangle of the conflict between a capitalistic past and a cooperative future………………………………………………………………………………………….…38





參考文獻 Agerholm. H. (2017). Finland’s universal basic income trial for unemployed reduces stress level, says official. The Independent. Retrieved from: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/finland-universal-basic-income-trial-pilot-scheme-unemployed-stress-levels-reduced-a7724081.html

Ateljevic, I. (2013). Transmodernity: Integrating perspectives on societal evolution. Futures, 47: 38-48.

Bardi, U. (2011). The Limits to Growth Revisited. New York: Springer.

Barnet, B. (Producer), & Mastroianni, A. (Director). (2006). The Celestine prophecy [Motion Picture]. United States: Celestine Films LLC.

Bezold, C. (2009). Jim Dator's Alternative Futures and the Path to IAF's Aspirational Futures. Journal of futures studies, 14(2): 123 – 134.

Boltanski, L., Chiapello, E., & Elliott, G. C. (2007). The new spirit of capitalism. London: Verso.

Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K., Ekvall, T., & Finnveden, G. (2006). Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide. Futures, 38(7): 723-739.

Borsook, P. (1996). Cyberselfishness. Mother Jones. Retrieved from: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/1996/07/cyberselfish

Block, B., Blomkamp, N., Kinberg, S. (Producers), & Blomkamp, N. (Director). (2013). Elysium [Motion Picture]. United States: TriStar Pictures.

Ciocca, P. (2010). Kindleberger e l’instabilità. Moneta e Credito, 63(251): 209-226.

Conway, M. (2009). Environmental Scanning: What is it and how to do it...A step by step guide to setting up and running an environmental scanning process in your organization. Thinking Futures 2009.

Diamandis, P., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Free Press.

Durkheim, E. (1984). The division of labor in society. London: The Macmillan Press LTD (Original work published 1893).

Eisler, R. T. (1987). The Chalice and the blade: our history, our future. New York: HarperCollins.

Fernandez, B. (2013). Rupees in your pocket. Le Monde diplomatique. Retrieved from: http://mondediplo.com/2013/05/04income

Funtowicz, S. & Ravetz, J. (1993), Science for the Post-Normal Age. Futures, 25(7): 739-755.

Funtowicz, S. & Ravetz, J. (1994), Uncertainty, Complexity and Post-Normal Science.
Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 13(12): 1881-1885.

Funtowicz, S. & Ravetz, J. (2003), Post-Normal Science. International Society for Ecological Economics.

Harvey, D. (2014). Seventeen contradictions and the end of capitalism. Oxford: Oxford University Press, USA.

Heilbroner, R. L. (1985). The nature and logic of capitalism. New York: Norton.

Hobbes, T., & Macpherson, C. B. (2013). Leviathan. Project Gutenberg. (Original work published 1651). Retrieved from: https://www.gutenberg.org/files/3207/3207-h/3207-h.htm

Horgan, J. (2008). The Consciousness Conundrum. IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved from: http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/imaging/the-consciousness-conundrum/0

Hughes, J. (2014). A Strategic Opening for a Basic Income Guarantee in the Global Crisis Being Created by AI, Robots, Desktop Manufacturing and BioMedicine. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 24(1): 45-61.

Inayatullah, S. (2002). Understanding Sarkar: the Indian episteme, macrohistory and transformative knowledge. Leiden: Brill.

Inayatullah, S. (2007). Six Pillars: Futures Thinking For Transforming. Foresight, 10(1): 4-21.

Joseph, P. (Producer, Director). (2008). Zeitgeist: Addendum [Motion Picture]. United States: GMP LLC.

Joseph, P. (Producer, Director). (2011). Zeitgeist: Moving Forward [Motion Picture]. United States: GMP LLC.

Jourdan, S. (2015). 30 Dutch Municipalities show Interest in Experimenting with Basic Income. Basic income hearth network. Retrieved from: http://basicincome.org/news/2015/07/dutch-municipalities-experiments

Kahane, A. (2010). Power and love: a theory and practice of social change. San Francisco: Berret-Koehler Publishers.

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1983). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 34: 341-350.

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. London: Penguin Books.

Keizer, P. (2015). Multidisciplinary economics. Oxford University Press.

Keynes, J. M. (1930) Economic possibilities for our grandchildren. In Essays in Persuasion (1963) New York: W.W. Norton & Co.: 358-373.

Khatchadourian, R. (2015). The Doomsday Invention: Will artificial intelligence bring us utopia or destruction? The New Yorker. Retrieved from: http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/23/doomsday-invention-artificial-intelligence-nick-bostrom

Knell, M. (2014). Schumpeter, Minsky and the financial instability hypothesis. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 25(1): 293-310.

Konings, M. (2015). The emotional logic of capitalism: what progressives have missed. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

Krugman, P.,Wells, R., & Graddy, K. (2012). Essentials of economics, 2nd Edition. New York: Worth Publishers

Kurzweil, R. (2005). The singularity is near: When humans transcend biology. New York: Viking.

Lanier, J. (2013). Who owns the future? New York: Simon & Schuster.

Lennerfors, T. T. (2015). A Buddhist future for capitalism? Revising Buddhist economics for the era of light capitalism. Futures, 68: 67-75.

List, D. (2004). Multiple pasts, converging presents, and alternative futures. Futures, 36(1): 23-43.

Maheshvarananda, D. (2004). After capitalism: Prout's vision for a new world. Washington, DC: Proutists Universal Publications.

Marx, K., & Engels, F. (2015). Capital; a critique of political economy. Volume I. (Original work published 1887). Retrieved from: https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/download/pdf/Capital-Volume-I.pdf

Masini, E. (1993). Why futures studies? London, England: Grey Seal.

Mason, P. (2015). Postcapitalism: a guide to our future. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

Meadows, D. H. (1972). The limits to growth; a report for the club of rome's project on the predicament of mankind. New York: Universe Books.

Mirowski, P. (2011). The Seekers, or How Mainstream Economists Have Defended Their Discipline Since 2008 – Part II. Naked Capitalism. Retrieved from: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/12/philip-mirowski-the-seekers-or-how-mainstream-economists-have-defended-their-discipline-since-2008-%E2%80%93%C2%A0part-ii.html

Notten, P. W., Rotmans, J., Asselt, M. B., & Rothman, D. S. (2003). An updated scenario typology. Futures, 35(5): 423-443.

Piketty, T., & Goldhammer, A. (2013). Capital in the twenty-first century. Harvard University Press.

Pinker, S. (2011). The better angels of our nature: why violence has declined. New York: Viking.

Ratcliff, A. (2017). Just 8 men own same wealth as half the world. Oxfam International. Retrieved from: https://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2017-01-16/just-8-men-own-same-wealth-half-world

Raworth, K. (2017). Doughnut economics, seven ways to think like a 21st-century economist. London: Random House Business books.

Rifkin, J. (2014). The zero marginal cost society: The internet of things, the collaborative commons, and the eclipse of capitalism. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Rousseau, J., & Cranston, M. (1994). A discourse on inequality. Oxford University Press. (Original work published 1755). Retrieved from: https://books.google.it/books?id=cEHeuy7WWx0C&lpg=PR7&ots=wTrDT-TmwE&dq=rousseau+discourse+on+inequality&lr=&pg=PP1&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=rousseau%20discourse%20on%20inequality&f=false

Rushkoff, D. (2002). Renaissance Now! Media Ecology and the New Global Narrative. Explorations in Media Ecology, 1(1): 26.

Samson, A. (2015). Behavioral economics guide 2015. Retrieved from: https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/the-behavioral-economics-guide-2015/

Sanderson, S. (1998). Macrosociology: an introduction to human societies. New York: Harper & Row.

Sardar, Z. (2010), Welcome to Postnormal times. Futures, 42(5): 435-444.

Simmel, G. (2004). The philosophy of money. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul. (Original work published 1900).

Smith, A. (2003). The wealth of nations. New York: Bantam Dell. (Original work published 1776).

Son, H. (2017). JPMorgan Software Does in Seconds What Took Lawyers 360,000 Hours. Bloomberg. Retrieved from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/jpmorgan-marshals-an-army-of-developers-to-automate-high-finance

Srnicek, N., & Williams, A. (2015). Inventing the future: postcapitalism and a world without work. Brooklyn, NY: Verso Books.

Standing, G. (2014). A precariat charter: from denizens to citizens. London: Bloomsbury.

Streeck, W. (2014). How will capitalism end. New Left Review (87).

Thompson, F. (2008). Fordism, Post-Fordism and the flexible system of production. Willamette.edu. Retrieved from: http://www.willamette.edu/~fthompso/MgmtCon/Fordism_&_Postfordism.html

Upton, L. (2015). FINLAND: New Government Commits to a Basic Income Experiment. Basic income hearth network. Retrieved from: http://basicincome.org/news/2015/06/finland-new-government-commits-to-a-basic-income-experiment/

Vincent, A. (2011). Modern political ideologies. Malden, MA: Wiley-Blackwell.

Wajcman, J. (2015). Pressed for time: the acceleration of life in digital capitalism. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Walker, M. (2014). BIG and Technological Unemployment: Chicken Little Versus the Economists. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 24(1): 5-25.

Wallerstein, I. M. (1974). The modern world-system I: capitalist agriculture and the origins of the European world-economy in the sixteenth century. University of California Press.

Weber, M. (2005). The protestant ethic and the spirit of capitalism. London & New York: Routledge. (Original work published 1930).

Widerquist, K. (2011). BRAZIL: RECIVITAS expands its local BIG to 83 people as it charters the “BIG Social Bank”. Basic income hearth network. Retrieved from: http://basicincome.org/news/2011/06/brazil-recivitas-expands-its-local-big-to-83-people-as-it-charters-the-big-social-bank/

Wolff, R. D. (2010). Capitalism hits the fan: the global economic meltdown and what to do about it. Northampton, MA: Olive Branch Press.

Wright, E. O. (2010). Envisioning real utopias. London: Verso.
論文使用權限
  • 同意紙本無償授權給館內讀者為學術之目的重製使用,於2017-06-12公開。
  • 同意授權瀏覽/列印電子全文服務,於2017-06-12起公開。


  • 若您有任何疑問,請與我們聯絡!
    圖書館: 請來電 (02)2621-5656 轉 2281 或 來信