各種相關研究顯示，正確的現金存款比率(通貨比率)有助於以下幾項研究的正確估計︰(1)銀行恐慌的本質研究、(2)貨幣定義與控制的相關研究、(3)地下經濟、走私、非法交易和逃稅的相關研究、(4)研究貨幣比例、金融創新與支付技術改變三者之間的關係及(5)貨幣乘數的相關預測，是以本論文試圖找出影響台灣現金與存款比率的因素，藉此預測出正確的通貨比率進而使其他相關研究能更準確的進行。
本論文將影響因素分為以下六類︰(1)機會成本、(2)總體經濟因素、(3)交易方式的受限、(4)天災等不可預期因素、(5)金融體系與支付系統的改變及(6)時間趨勢或應變數本身落後期影響，並在各類型影響力中挑選適當的變數放入最終的迴歸方程式，以分別探討其對兩種不同通貨比率的影響。本論文之研究結果彙整出以下幾點結論：
(1)	代表機會成本的一年期存款利率與代表總體因素的ln(加權平均股價指數)、ln(工業生產指數)與ln(消費者物價總指數)對兩種通貨比率的影響結果相反，符合預期的方向。
(2)	以現金消費比率作為交易方式受限的替代變數，得出此變數對兩種通貨比率的影響皆為正向的結論，表示需要使用現金來消費的機會增加則需要持有更多的現金。
(3)	一月份、SARS、921、颱風與千禧危機這五項虛擬變數各自對兩種通貨比率的影響有相同的趨勢，但各變數對兩種通貨比率的影響方向與理由不盡相同。
(4)	分別以ln(信用卡簽帳金額)與 ln(金融機構家數)代表金融體系與支付系統的改變對lncdratio1與lncdratio2的影響，由實證結果得知其對於通貨比率的影響為負向，表示隨著金融體系與支付系統的持續擴展，大眾在支付費用上漸漸地以存款來取代現金。
(5)	應變數本身落後期的各自影響結果都為正向，顯示出大眾對於通貨比率的持有有其慣性作用，導致當期的通貨比率皆以部分調整前期比率的方式來持有。
除了上述變數的影響結果，本文所選定的六類影響因素皆有其合理的選定理由及顯著的影響力，而本文新發現的影響因素為對此研究提出的新貢獻。此外，對不同貨幣定義下的通貨比率所做的各別探討亦是研究台灣通貨比率的文獻中所沒有探討的部分，此舉可以讓研究通貨比率的人比較出不同變數對不同定義下的通貨比率的影響。

The currency/deposit ratio is a fundamental determinant of the stock of money in the economy. Past studies of the behavior of the currency/deposit ratio have generally been related to five areas of research including (1) studies of the nature bank panics; (2) the definition and control of the money supply and its determinants; (3) evaluating the underground economy, contraband, illegal transactions, and tax evasion; (4) the relationships among the currency ratio, financial improvement, and changes in payment technology; and (5) evaluating the predictability of money multiplier. This thesis undertakes a statistical analysis of the various factors important in determining Taiwan's currency ratio.

The explanatory variables used in this study can be classified into six categories: (1) opportunity cost; (2) macroeconomic variables; (3) limitations on transactions; (4) natural disasters and other unexpected factors; (5) the changes of financial system and payment mechanisms; and (6) time trend and lags of dependent variables. Data on a number of variables representing these various factors were employed in a regression analysis to clarify the determinants of the currency/deposit ratio. 


In addition to certain macroeconomic variables used in the models, it was found that the typical opportunity cost variables, proxied by particular interest rates, bore an inverse relation to the currency ratio. Moreover, an innovative variable constructed using basic (cash-based) consumption to total consumption proved to have a significant and positive relation. Credit card transactions data and variables related to the number of financial institutions were seen to be negatively related to the C/D ratio. In general improvements and innovations to the payments system was seen to be negatively related to the currency/deposit ratio. Variables involving seasonal and unusual events were introduced showing a significant effect for Chinese New Year, SARS, the 921 earthquake period, typhoons, and Y2K events. 

The effects of the variables used in the regressions were found to depend crucially on the definition of the currency ratio; namely, whether the ratio used a narrow definition of deposits or a broad definition of deposits.  In addition, it was found that lags in the dependent variable showed that changes in both types of currency ratios tend to take place slowly over time, reflecting the gradual changes occurring society and to the payments technology over time.

目錄
第一章 緒論	1
1.1研究背景	1
1.2研究動機與貢獻	5
第二章 文獻回顧	9
2.1銀行恐慌	9
2.2貨幣的定義與控制	14
2.3地下經濟評估，逃漏稅和走私	20
2.4研究通貨比例、金融創新與支付技術改變三者間的關係	22
2.5貨幣乘數的相關預測	23
第三章 理論分析	25
3.1一般化的理論	25
3.2通貨比率的研究	27
3.3 影響通貨比率的因素	34
第四章 實證分析	39
4.1資料來源	39
4.2變數設定與分析	43
4.3模型設立	53
4.4實證結果	55
第五章 結論	59
附錄1貨幣乘數的初步探討	61
參考文獻	88
中文參考文獻	88
英文參考文獻	88

 
表目錄
表 2. 1銀行恐慌的相關研究文獻	11
表 2. 2貨幣的定義與控制相關研究文獻	16
表 2. 3地下經濟評估，逃漏稅和走私的相關研究文獻	21
表 2. 4研究通貨比例、金融創新與支付技術改變三者間關係的相關研究文獻	23
表 2. 5貨幣乘數的相關預測的相關研究文獻	24
表 4. 1變數對照與資料來源	41
表 4. 2變數對照與資料來源(續)	42
表 4. 3各變數的樣本值分析	44
表 4. 4各變數的樣本值分析(續)	44
表 4. 5變動方向對照表	58
附表 1 A機會成本對lncdratio1之影響	66
附表 1 B機會成本與總體變數對lncdratio1之影響	67
附表 1 C機會成本、總體變數與現金消費比率對lncdratio1之影響	68
附表 1 D成本、總體變數、現金消費比率與非預期因素對lncdratio1之影響	69
附表 1 E機會成本、總體變數、現金消費比率與Y2K對lncdratio1之影響	70
附表 1 F金融體系與支付系統對lncdratio1之影響	71
附表 1 G成本、總體、現金消費比率、Y2K與支付系統對lncdratio1之影響	72
附表 1 H六類因素對lncdratio1之總和影響	73
附表 2 A機會成本對lncdratio2之影響	74
附表 2 B機會成本與總體變數對lncdratio2之影響	75
附表 2 C機會成本、總體變數與現金消費比率對lncdratio2之影響	76
附表 2 D成本、總體變數、現金消費比率與非預期因素對lncdratio2之影響	77
附表 2 E機會成本、總體變數、現金消費比率與Y2K對lncdratio2之影響	78
附表 2 F金融體系或支付系統對lncdratio2之影響	79
附表 2 G成本、總體、現金消費比率、Y2K與支付系統對lncdratio2之影響	80
附表 2 H六類因素對lncdratio2之總和影響	81
附表 3 信用卡與ATM的相關數據	82
 
 
圖目錄
圖 1. 1 付費方式演變流程	2
圖 1. 2 現金變動情況	5
圖 1. 3現金與國內生產毛額的變動情況	6
圖 1. 4消費者物價總指數	6
圖 1. 5貨幣供給量	7
圖 3. 1完全無成本交易與使用現金、存款的交易比較(1)	29
圖 3. 2完全無成本交易與使用現金、存款的交易比較(2)	30
圖 3. 3存款為交易媒介優於現金為交易媒介	32
圖 3. 4不同市場規模下的交易情況	33
圖 3. 5美國通貨比率的季節性調整數據(週資料)	36
圖 3. 6千禧年間台灣現金持有	37
圖 3. 7民國100年前、後之現金持有圖	38
圖 3. 8 SARS期間台灣的現金持有量	38
圖 4. 1信用卡流通卡數	44
圖 4. 2信用卡簽帳金額	45
圖 4. 3 ATM裝設台數	46
圖 4. 4 ATM交易金額	47
圖 4. 5金融機構家數	47
圖 4. 6加權平均股價指數	48
圖 4. 7工業生產指數	49
圖 4. 8消費者物價總指數	49
圖 4. 9現金消費比率	50
圖 4. 10不同利率之比較	51
圖 4. 11 M1B計算下的通貨比率	52
圖 4. 12 M2計算下的通貨比率	52
附圖 1準備金比率與通貨比率的歷史演變圖	62
附圖 2平滑前、後通貨比率對M2貨幣乘數的衝擊系數	63
附圖 3通貨比率對M1、M2貨幣乘數衝擊係數之比較	64

中文參考文獻
麥朝成，民國59年，台灣通貨比率之研究，國立台灣大學經濟研究所，碩士論文，台灣。
戴韻珊，民國92年，臺灣地下經濟之探討-MIMIC模型之應用，國立中正大學國際經濟研究所，碩士論文，台灣。
邱婉美，民國96年，影響台灣通貨存款比率變化因素之探討，國立台灣大學經
     濟研究所，碩士論文，台灣。
霍德明、莊希豐，民國95年，《貨幣銀行學理論與實務》，指南書局有限公司， 
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周添城，民國68年，通貨比率函數與貨幣供給、國民所得的關係，《經濟研究》第22期，95-108頁。
柴尚蕾，民國95年，貨幣乘數影響因素的實證分析及其應用，中國東北財經大學金融所，碩士論文，中國。
石洪波，民國94年，利用貨幣乘數提高貨幣政策的有效性，中國復旦大學經濟研究所，碩士論文，中國。
佘跃飞，民國93年， 我國貨幣乘數的預測研究，中國中南大學金融所，碩士論文，中國。

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