淡江大學覺生紀念圖書館 (TKU Library)

系統識別號 U0002-0902201215332700
中文論文名稱 貨幣沖銷政策的有效性:中國實證分析
英文論文名稱 An analysis of the effectiveness of China’s RMB sterilization policy
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 經濟學系碩士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Economics
學年度 100
學期 1
出版年 101
研究生中文姓名 吳維晨
研究生英文姓名 Wei-Chen Wu
學號 698570271
學位類別 碩士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2012-01-03
論文頁數 65頁
口試委員 指導教授-柯大衛
中文關鍵字 外匯  沖銷有效性 
英文關鍵字 exchange rate  sterilization 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學經濟學
中文摘要 中國在2000年至2011年間,經常帳和資本帳呈現雙順差,此期間外匯存底快速增加,使之成為世界最大的外匯存底國。為了維持匯率的穩定,中國必須對大量過剩貨幣進行沖銷,以達到穩定經濟、不造成物價膨脹與經濟泡沫等問題,是以本文的目標為探討中國沖銷政策的有效性。
本研究探討中國2000年至2011年8月間貨幣沖銷政策的有效性,但因中國在此期間有兩種不同的匯率政策,所以將其分成固定匯率政策與管理浮動匯率政策兩個部份來加以探討。本文使用丁柏根規則(Tinbergen Rule)來分別探討兩者的沖銷有效性,若選定工具的數量等於目標的數量,則符合丁柏根規則,此時為最有效率。
英文摘要 During the period 2000-2011, both China’s current account and financial account showed significant surpluses. The concomitant rapid rise in foreign exchange reserves mirrored tremendous growth in the real economy, eventually establishing China as the world’s largest holder of foreign exchange reserves. However, the speed and magnitude of the accumulation of these reserves brought with it persistent dangers of inflation and bubbles in asset prices. The government of China, seeing these dangers as significant, engaged massive sterilization operations in an effort to control the growth of money in the economy. The goal of this thesis is to statistically investigate the effectiveness of China’s sterilization operations.
In this study, the sample period can be broken into two sub-periods corresponding to two different exchange rate regimes – a fixed exchange rate policy during 2000-2005 and a managed exchange rate policy regime during 2005 – 2011. The role of the Tinbergen’s Rule in analyzing the effectiveness of sterilization policies is seen to be important. Tinbergen’s Rule says that the number of policy instruments should be equal to the number of policy targets. Since effective monetary control requires a control of the money multiplier, as well as control of the monetary base, sterilization policies should employ at least two instruments. In the case of China these instruments have been the quantity of sterilization bonds and the required reserve ratio.
The empirical results of the thesis show that during the fixed exchange rate policy of 2000-2005, monetary sterilization was not particularly stable. Sterilization was difficult to maintain during this time. This is one reason why that Chinese exchange rate policy changed from a strictly fixed rate to a managed rate. Regression analysis indicates that the effectiveness of sterilization operations was not high, possibly because of sterilization costs which continued to rise over the period. Several policy targets, control variables, and lagged specifications were introduced into the model including a measure of the percentage change in Chinese housing prices and a variable assessing political pressure from US government officials. The thesis concludes that sterilization is not a long run option for China; and that a timely appreciation can slow the increase in foreign reserves, thus relieving inflationary pressures on the economy.
論文目次 表目錄 VII
圖目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機與目的 8
第二章 文獻回顧 14
2.1 實質匯率的平衡 15
2.2 貨幣政策的管理 19
2.3 沖銷的有效性 22
2.4 沖銷的持續性 26
第三章 理論 30
第四章 實證模型 35
4.1 資料來源與處理過程 35
4.2 實證模型與研究方法 46
4.2.1 2000年1月到2005年6月 46
4.2.2 2005年7月到2011年8月 48
第五章 結論 50
附錄 52
(一) 2000年1月到2005年6月資料 52
(二) 2005年7月到2011年8月 56
參考文獻 62

表 1. 1貨幣當局資產負債表 10
表 1. 2金融機構資產負債表 10
表 1. 3綜合資產負債表 11
表 1. 4簡化綜合資產負債表 11
表 2. 1實質匯率的平衡文獻整理 17
表 2. 2貨幣政策的管理文獻整理 21
表 2. 3沖銷的有效性文獻整理 24
表 2. 4沖銷的持續性文獻整理 28
表 4. 1原始變數資料來源 35
表 4. 2各變數統計資料 36
表 4. 3各變數統計資料(續) 36
表 4. 4美國要求中國人民幣升值的新聞 38
附表 1沖銷債券對外匯存底比率的改變量之迴歸式 52
附表 2沖銷債券對外匯存底比率的改變量之迴歸式(續) 53
附表 3存款準備率的成長率之迴歸式 54
附表 4存款準備率的成長率之迴歸式(續) 55
附表 5沖銷債券對外匯存底比率的改變量之迴歸式 56
附表 6沖銷債券對外匯存底比率的改變量之迴歸式(續) 57
附表 7存款準備率的成長率之迴歸式 58
附表 8存款準備率的成長率之迴歸式(續) 59
附表 9存款準備率的成長率之迴歸式(續) 60
附表 10存款準備率的成長率之迴歸式(續) 61

圖 1. 1中國外匯存底 (2000年-2011年) 4
圖 1. 2 2000年到2011年外匯存底成長百分比 4
圖 1. 3美元兌人民幣匯率 (2000年-2011年) 5
圖 3. 1最適貨幣成長率 32
圖 4. 1中國房地產景氣指數 37
圖 4. 2外匯存底 41
圖 4. 3強力貨幣 42
圖 4. 4沖銷債券 42
圖 4. 5存款準備率 43
圖 4. 6準備金 43
圖 4. 7貨幣發行 44
圖 4. 8貨幣、貨幣和準貨幣 44
圖 4. 9現金存款比 45
圖 4. 10貨幣乘數 45

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