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系統識別號 U0002-0902201114451100
中文論文名稱 中國出口與對外直接投資的經濟分析
英文論文名稱 Three Essays on China's Exports and Outward Foreign Direct Investment
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 產業經濟學系博士班
系所名稱(英) Department of Industrial Economics
學年度 99
學期 1
出版年 100
研究生中文姓名 周光漢
研究生英文姓名 Kuang-Hann Chou
學號 895540085
學位類別 博士
語文別 中文
口試日期 2011-01-10
論文頁數 105頁
口試委員 指導教授-麥朝成
委員-麥朝成
委員-陳建勳
委員-林俊宏
委員-梁文榮
委員-林祖嘉
中文關鍵字 出口  對外直接投資  政治風險  經濟整合  第三國效應  空間分析  空間效果  探索性空間數據分析方法  空間計量經濟 
英文關鍵字 Exports  Outward FDI  Political risk  Eeconomic integration  Third-country effects  Geospatial analysis  Spatial effects  Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, ESDA  Spatial econometrics 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學經濟學
中文摘要 此博士論文由三篇研究中國出口、對外直接投資與空間效應之經濟分析的獨立論文組成。第一篇論文為「中國出口的空間分析」,探討有關中國出口貿易空間聚集趨勢的方式,係將地理上的空間因素納入分析,並衡量每個國家對於全域空間自相關的程度,本篇文章發現中國對外貿易發展的空間異質性,表現為出口份額相對較高的亞洲地區和出口份額相對較低的歐洲地區在空間上分別趨於聚集,顯示中國大陸出口貿易全球佈局的態勢。第二篇論文為「政治風險、經濟整合及空間效果對中國出口的影響」,主要以國家政治風險和空間效應對中國出口貿易的影響,實證檢定中國出口貿易和相關變數間關係。此篇文章發現經濟整合程度愈高愈有利於中國的出口,中國對外直接投資(OutwardFDI)與出口互為替代關係,貿易夥伴國的人均所得愈高與經濟開放程度愈高,都顯著有利於中國出口,中國出口有聚集現象。第三篇論文為「第三國效應和經濟整合對中國的對外直接投資之影響」,本研究中主要以中國對外直接投資的相關驅動因素如市場規模、市場機會、中國出口、中國與地主國間的文化相對鄰近程度、地主國的政治風險、地主國的市場開放程度、中國與地主國間的經濟整合程度、市場潛力和空間自相關因素等條件,驗證該等因素與中國對外直接投資間關係。此篇文章發現,中國對外直接投資型態傾向複合型的FDI,且不受第三國效應影響,經濟整合程度愈高和地主國的政治風險愈高並不利於中國對外直接投資,除此,地主國市場機會對中國對外直接投資有顯著負向影響,人均所得愈高(相對市場規模)及文化鄰近程度愈高的國家,都顯著有利於中國對外直接投資,其他如地主國的國民所得(絕對市場規模)、出口、地主國開放程度等都沒有顯著影響。
英文摘要 The dissertation consists of three independent papers. The first paper is “A Geospatial Analysis of China’s Exports, 1991–2008”. This paper employs a range of exploratory spatial data analysis tools (e.g., Moran’s I and LISA statistics) to investigate trends in the growth of China’s exports over the period 1991–2008. A particular focus is on the detection of spatial correlations between China and 40 export destination countries in major world regions. Emphasis in the paper on the key years of 1991, 2001, 2006, and 2008 has enabled the authors to analyze the impacts on China’s trade of such major events as the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization and the global economic crisis of 2008–2009. The results of the spatial analysis reveal the continuing importance of the U.S. and Asian countries in China’s export trade (despite changes in the character of trade relations) and identify the spatial outliers (e.g., in Latin America) that may serve as the basis for new export markets for China in the future.
The title of the second paper is “Influence of Political Risk, Economic Integration and Spatial Effects on China’s Exports”. We employ a spatial econometric model to examine whether China’s exports are affected by political risk, economic integration and spatial effects. The results show that a higher level of economic integration is beneficial to China’s exports. A substitutive relationship is discovered between China’s OFDI and exports, and it is found that the unique political and economic environment of China allows it to bear more political risks, which further promote its exports. In addition, the higher income per capita of partner countries and the high degree of economic openness are both beneficial to China’s exports. An agglomeration is also found within China’s exports when considering the spatial fixed effects.
The third paper is “Impact of Third-country Effects and Economic Integration on China’s Outward FDI”. This paper employs a spatial econometric model to explore the impact of third-country effects and economic integration on China’s outward FDI (OFDI). The results show that the pattern of China’s OFDI tends toward a complex FDI without third-country effects. The degree of economic integration and host country's political risk both have a negative influence on China's OFDI. Furthermore, greater cultural proximity between China and the host country, as well as greater per capita income (market size), both have significant benefits to China's OFDI. The host country’s market opportunity has a significant negative effect on China's OFDI.
論文目次 第一章 緒論..............................................1
第一節 研究動機...........................................1
第二節 論文架構...........................................5
第二章 中國出口的空間分析(A Geospatial Analysis of China’s Exports, 1991–2008)...............................................7
第一節 前言..............................................7
第二節 空間分析方法..................................9
第三節 數據來源說明.................................12
第四節 中國出口的空間聚集...........................13
第五節 結論與政策意涵...............................18
第三章 政治風險、經濟整合及空間效果對中國出口的影響(The Influence of Political Risk, Economic Integration and Spatial Effects on China’s Exports)...........................20
第一節 前言.........................................20
第二節 實證模型.....................................24
(一)變數說明.......................................25
(二)空間相關係數...................................28
(三)數據資料來源...................................30
第三節 實證結果.....................................30
第四節 結論與政策意涵...............................35
第四章 第三國效應和經濟整合對中國的對外直接投資之影響(The Impact of Third-country Effects and Economic Integration on China’s Outward FDI)...............................38
第一節 前言..........................................38
第二節 實證模型......................................43
(一)變數說明.......................................44
(二)空間相關係數...................................48
(三)FDI與第三國效應...............................50
(四)數據資料來源...................................56
第三節 實證結果......................................57
第四節 結論與政策意涵................................64
第五章 結論.............................................67
附 錄.................................................70
參考文獻.................................................72

表目錄
表1 中國出口的地理分布形態,1991–2009....................88
表2 中國對外直接投資的地理分布形態(流量),2003–2008年...89
表3 FDI型態與空間落差及市場潛力的預期符號...............90
表4 貿易夥伴國分布型態............... ...................91
表5 固定效果的空間落差模型估計結果(出口).................92
表6 固定效果的空間誤差模型估計結果(出口).................93
表7 固定效果的空間落差模型估計結果(對外直接投資).........94
表8 固定效果的空間誤差模型估計結果(對外直接投資).........95
表9 固定效果的空間落差模型估計結果(對外直接投資,不含香港)..................................................96
表10 固定效果的空間誤差模型估計結果(對外直接投資,不含香港)..................................................97

圖目錄
圖1 中國出口的Moran散佈圖(1991年).......................98
圖2 中國出口的Moran散佈圖(2001年).......................99
圖3 中國出口的Moran散佈圖(2006年)......................100
圖4 中國出口的Moran散佈圖(2008年)......................101
圖5 1991年中國出口相關貿易夥伴國空間分佈的顯著水準圖...102
圖6 2001年中國出口相關貿易夥伴國空間分佈的顯著水準圖...103
圖7 2006年中國出口相關貿易夥伴國空間分佈的顯著水準圖...104
圖8 2008年中國出口相關貿易夥伴國空間分佈的顯著水準圖...105
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