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系統識別號 U0002-0807201707153500
中文論文名稱 俄羅斯外交政策中的能源角色: 外交史(1873~2015)
英文論文名稱 The Role of Energy in Russia’s Foreign Policy:A Diplomatic History (1873~2015)
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 歐洲研究所博士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of European Studies
學年度 105
學期 2
出版年 106
研究生中文姓名 曾麗明
研究生英文姓名 Li-Ming Tseng
學號 897290028
學位類別 博士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2017-06-12
論文頁數 211頁
口試委員 指導教授-馬良文
委員-魏百谷
委員-李顯峰
委員- 吴春光
委員-彼薩列夫
中文關鍵字 歐盟-俄羅斯關係  石油和蘇聯霸權  石油和第一次世界大戰聯盟  俄羅 斯和中亞地區  歐盟和中亞地區  歐盟能源安全  美國家功利主義 
英文關鍵字 EU-Russian Relations  Oil and Soviet Hegemony  Oil and WWI Alliance  Russia and Central Asia  EU and Central Asia  EU Energy Security  United States Utilitarianism 
學科別分類
中文摘要 巴庫的石油工業發展始於 1873 年,自此之后,世界上對俄羅斯石油的
需求越來越高,俄羅斯作為石油生產國亦需要將生產出的大量石油向外國市場
出口。基於歷史事件,政府干預以贏得或捍衛世界市場份額,實際上,與工業
家建立戰略夥伴關係是不可避免的,如金融,貿易支持,商業機會等。由於石
油成為近代經濟發展的總和,所以消費國苦苦爭取獲得石油貿易,石油貿易是
國家締結經濟關係或貿易協定中的對外事務的一部分。由此,我們見證了叢林
法則,因為它是贏得市場份額或供應份額的適者,同樣,如果能在採購,銷售
及運輸等方面提高利益,生產者和消費國就會傾向於合作。
總括而言,俄羅斯石油工業的發展對國家政治發展產生了積極影響,因
為石油貿易資助經濟,俄羅斯的社會主義實驗持續了七十年;帝國主義作為供
應部分鞏固了東方集團的效忠;燃氣公用事業系統對後蘇聯俄羅斯是十分重要
的。負面的是,在巴庫工業的框架下,共產主義運動增加,使沙皇政府垮台;
向東方集團補貼石油令預算緊張是蘇聯解體的部分原因;石油經濟帶來經濟自
由落體。其次,石油貿易影響了世界歷史一百三十年;在第一次世界大戰前,
它加強了英國、俄羅斯和法國的關係,從而維護了他們在巴爾乾地區的帝國設
計和商業利益;商業否認推動德國投資羅馬尼亞和中東,完善了與中央大國的
聯盟;在 1905 年的日俄戰爭期間,與美國標準油的市場競爭使日本受惠。第
一次世界大戰後石油交易有利重新吞併高加索地區,而在第二次世界大戰後,
蘇聯成為歐洲主要的天然氣供應商,導致持續的冷戰 - 衝突源於後蘇聯能源
環境,俄羅斯必須捍衛她作為主要能源供應商的地位。
英文摘要 The development of Baku oil industry commenced in 1873, since then, Russian oil as a product was increasingly needed by the world giving way to market demand and Russia as a producer needed a foreign market to export voluminous production output. Based on historical events, government intervened to win or defend world market share, in
effect, strategic partnership with industrialists was inevitable such as financial, trade support, business opportunities, and others. As oil became the sum total of economic development in the late modern period, thus, consuming states bitterly campaigned to obtain it and so oil trade was a part of external affairs such that economic relations or trade agreements were concluded. Thus, we witnessed the law of the jungle as it is the fittest
who shall win market share or supply share, likewise, producers and consuming states tend to cooperate if it would raise their interests in matters of procurement, sales, shipment.
In conclusion, the development of Russian oil industry impacted national political development – positively, socialist experiment in Russia sustained for seven decades as oil trade financed the economy; imperialism as supply partly consolidated East Bloc allegiance; gas utility system proved crucial for post-Soviet Russia. Negatively, the fall of Tsarist government as communist movement grew in the framework of Baku industry;Soviet dissolution partly due to budget strain in subsidizing oil to the East Bloc; economic
free fall due to petro economy. Secondly, oil trade impacted world history for a hundred thirty years; in pre-WWI, it strengthened British-Russo-Franco relations and so safeguarded their imperial design in the Balkans and business interests; business denial pushed Germany
to invest in Romania and Middle East which partly consummated alliance with Central Powers; market competition with Standard Oil paved for America to favour Japan during
Russo-Japan War in 1905. Post WWI oil trade paved for diplomatic ties and re-annexation of Caucasus, and in post WWII, the USSR became Europe main gas supplier and said dependency laid the seeds of continuing Cold War – the world in conflict due to post-Soviet energy environment and as Russia must defend her status as a major supplier.
論文目次 I. Introduction 1

I.1. Background 1

I. 2 Research Question 3

I.3. Research Purposes 4

I.4. Literature Review 4

I.5. Analytical Framework 8

I.6. Methodology 10

I.7. Research Plan 14

I.8. Research Outcome 16

I.9. Research scope and limitation 17

II. The Rise of Russia as World Supplier 18

II.1.1. Oil Development during Tsarist capitalism (1880-1914) 19

II.1.2. Development during Socialist period 24

II.1.3. Yeltsin Devolution to Putin Re-seizure 41

III. Russia’s Oil and Gas Supply to Europe, Its Impact on International Relations 50

III.1.1. Pre-WWI Relations among Powers (1880-1914) 51

III.2.1. In between Two World Wars (1917-1945) 60

III.3.1.1. Soviet-East Relations (1945-1991, the USSR) 65

III.3.1.2. East-West Relations (1945-1991, the USSR) 74

III.3.1.3. Arab Producers and the Soviet Connection 87

IV. Petro State Russia Nemesis (1991-2015, Post Cold War) 90

IV.1. Introduction 91

IV.2.1. Petro State Nemesis: United States of America Unilateralism 92

IV.2.2. Petro State Nemesis: European Union and Energy Security 103

IV.2.3. Petro State Nemesis: Former Soviet Union 114

V. Petro State Russia: Defending the Market Race 125

V.1.1. Winning over the Former Soviet Republics 126

V.2.1 Alliance with China 139

V.2.2. Call on Turkey 145

V.2.3. In Line of Fire in Syria 153

VI. Conclusion: Russian Oil Supply, Interpolating its Historical Impact for a Hundred Thirty Years 162

VI.1 Tsar Missed Opportunity (1880-1914) 163

VI.2. Western Democracies and their Failures (1917-1945) 165

VI.3. Western Democracies and their Failures (1945-1991) 168

VI. 4. U.S. Unilateralism and Petro State Russia (1991-2015) 171

VI. 5. The future 173

Bibliography 178

Diagram, Maps, Diagrams and Charts Diagram 2-1: Modern Fuel Industry Three Operational Pillars 20
Diagram 2-2: Energy Decision Making in the Soviet Union 39
Diagram 2-3: The Cannibalization of Soviet Oil Industry 44
Chart 2-1: Investment Statistics 22
Chart 2-2: Production Statistics, 1881-1927 29
Chart 2-3: Soviet Oil Industry Milestones and Production Statistics under Five Year Plan 33
Chart 2-4: Key Domestic and Foreign Companies in the Russian and Gas Sector 47
Chart 3-1 Oil Industry Contribution to American Economy 54
Chart 3-2: Warship tonnage, 1880-1914 58
Chart 3-3: Germany volume of stock with and without Stalin assistance 65
Chart 3-4: Romanian Equipment as a Share of Total Soviet Oil Equipment Imports 68
Chart 3-5: Soviet Oil Prices 70
Chart 3-6: East Europe Import from the Mid-East 70
Chart 3-7: Communist States Import Data of Soviet Oil and Oil Products 71
Chart 3-8: Eastern European Dependence on Soviet Oil 72
Chart 3-9: Share of Eastern Europe in Gross Soviet Energy Exports, 1970-1987 73
Chart 3-10: Trend in crude oil ownership, 1950-1979 76
Chart 3-11: Mid-East States Production Increase, Iran Crisis 76
Chart 2-1: Investment Statistics 22
Chart 2-2: Production Statistics, 1881-1927 29
Chart 2-3: Soviet Oil Industry Milestones and Production Statistics under Five Year Plan 33
Chart 2-4: Key Domestic and Foreign Companies in the Russian and Gas Sector 47
Chart 3-1 Oil Industry Contribution to American Economy 54
Chart 3-2: Warship tonnage, 1880-1914 58
Chart 3-3: Germany volume of stock with and without Stalin assistance 65
Chart 3-4: Romanian Equipment as a Share of Total Soviet Oil Equipment Imports 68
Chart 3-5: Soviet Oil Prices 70
Chart 3-6: East Europe Import from the Mid-East 70
Chart 3-7: Communist States Import Data of Soviet Oil and Oil Products 71
Chart 3-8: Eastern European Dependence on Soviet Oil 72
Chart 3-9: Share of Eastern Europe in Gross Soviet Energy Exports, 1970-1987 73
Chart 3-10: Trend in crude oil ownership, 1950-1979 76
Chart 3-11: Mid-East States Production Increase, Iran Crisis 76
Chart 3-12: Production Change: September-November 1973 77
Chart 3-13: World oil supply disruptions, 1951 to 1992 81
Chart 3-14: Real Price of Oil and Major Disruptions in World Oil Supply, 1950-2008 81
Chart 3-15: Soviet Exports to Western Europe 82
Chart 3-16: USSR: Hard Currency Energy Export Earnings 83
Chart 3-17: Soviet Oil Sales Volume and Value 84
Chart 3-18: Trend of Soviet Gas Exports to Europe, 1970–2001 85
Chart 3-19: Soviet Imports of Equipment Related to the Gas, Oil and Oil-Refining Industries, 1970-1987 86
Chart 4-1: Gazpom Export Data to EU 105
Chart 4-2: EU Sources of Fossil Fuels 112
Chart 4-3: Europe Gas Imports, actual flows and capacity in 2012 112
Chart 4-4: The Average Annual Gas Price for Individual EU Member States 113
Chart 4-5: Volume of Russian fuel transited via Belarus 115
Chart 4-6: Russian Gas Shipment via Ukraine 116
Chart 4-7: Russia selling price in comparison 118
Chart 4-8: Russia’s selling price to Ukraine from year 2003 to 2008 121
Chart 4-9: Average Contribution of Oil-Gas Sector in Caspian Economies 2002~2007 122
Chart 5-1: TANAP, TAP, TCP Pipelines, An Overview 137
Chart 6-1: Romanian Oil Production, Evolution of Exports 171
Map 2-1: Soviet Union Petroleum Deposits and Pipelines 38
Map 4-1: Albania Map 99
Map 4-2: PNAC Plan 102
Map 5-1: Nord Stream 136
Map 5-2: Southern Corridor Natural Gas Pipeline 138
Map 5-3: China Imports and Export of Natural Gas Data 144
Map 5-4: Turkey-Israel Energy Corridor 152
Map 5-5: Map of South Pars and North Field 154
Map 5-6: Map of Competing Qatar and Iran Pipeline Route 154
Map 5-7: Pipelines in the Eastern Mediterranean 161


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Russian Book
Случ, C. Пакты Молотова и Риббентропа в советской и западной историографии. – «Польша – СССР», Москва: 2005
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