近年來台灣各地區房價不合理的漲幅成為民怨之首，其中受國內外金融情勢的干擾，使台灣房市遭受嚴重打擊，顯示總體面的變化可引起房地產結構性轉變，此研究便透過觀察總體經濟指標分析各台灣地區房地產行情，並採用非線性方法之平滑移轉迴歸模型，以貨幣供給成長率當作門檻變數，針對1998第一季至2011年第四季台北市、新北市、台中市、高雄市以及台灣的房價指數，探討總體經濟中的貨幣供給成長率、五大行庫新承做購屋貸款利率、消費者物價指數、失業率對台灣房價的影響程度。實證結果指出各區貨幣供給成長率在門檻值下，貸款利率是影響各區房價變動的主要因素，反映政府藉優惠貸款利率刺激房地產的買氣，卻也促使資金氾濫產生房價過熱，消費者物價指數對房價成正相關，說明房地產具保值性能抑制物價膨脹。因此，修正總體經濟面能有效平衡台灣房價的走勢，政府應善用貸款利率以提早預防房地產市場受危機衝擊的影響。

In recent years, housing price is unreasonable rise in several regions of Taiwan, in which is influenced by domestic and foreign financial circumstance. Housing price change can be explained from economical fundamental. This study figure out how the macroeconomics factors affect housing price in Taiwan. Applying the method of smooth transition model and utilizing the growth rate of money supply as a transition variable, discuss macroeconomics which involve in the growth rate of money supply, the interest rate on mortgage loan of five largest banks, consumer price index, and the rate of unemployment nonlinear impact on housing price in Taiwan from 1988Q1 to 2011Q4.Analyzing the cities include in Taipei, New Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung. The empirical result verified that interest rate is nonlinear impact on real estate in Taiwan under the different interval of the growth rate on money supply. Housing price in the north of Taiwan is affected by the rate on mortgage loan is more smooth than housing price in the south of Taiwan. In conclusion, the government uses the interest rate on mortgage loan properly to prevent real estate from falling in a crisis.

目錄
中文摘要.............................I
英文摘要.............................II
目錄................................III
表目錄...............................V
圖目錄...............................VI
第一章 緒論...........................1
   第一節 研究動機.....................1
   第二節 研究目的.....................5
   第三節 研究架構.....................6
第二章 文獻探討........................7
   第一節 總體經濟因素與房價關係之分析.....7
   第二節 房價指數分析..................16
   第三節 影響房價因素之相關文獻..........18
第三章 研究方法.........................26
   第一節 研究資料......................26
   第二節 單根檢定......................29
   第三節 平滑移轉迴歸模型...............33
第四章 實證結果與分析....................40
   第一節 變數定義	.....................40
   第二節 敘述統計量....................43
   第三節 單根檢定結果...................45
   第四節 線性檢定......................48
   第五節 轉換函數的檢定.................49
   第六節 模型參數之估計與檢定............51
第五章 結論和建議.......................63
   第一節 研究結論	.....................63
   第二節 建議.........................65
   第三節 研究貢獻......................66
參考文獻...............................68
   國內文獻............................69
   國外文獻............................69

表目錄
表2-1影響房地產市場景氣的重要指標...25
表3-1研究資料彙整...28
表4-1 變數定義和預期彙整...42
表4-2 樣本敘述統計量...44
表4-3 房價指數和總體變數之ADP、PP檢定結果...46
表4-4 房價指數和總體變數之NP、KPSS檢定結果...47
表4-5 LM-Type之線性檢定...48
表4-6 轉換函數之檢定...50
表4-7 總體變數對台灣房價指數之參數估計...53
表4-8 MG為門檻值下，各解釋變數對台灣房價指數之影響...53
表4-9 總體變數對台北市房價指數之參數估計...55
表4-10 MG為門檻值下，各解釋變數對台北市房價指數之影響...56
表4-11 總體變數對新北市房價指數之參數估計...57
表4-12 MG為門檻值下，各解釋變數對新北市房價指數之影響...58
表4-13 總體變數對台中市房價指數之參數估計...59
表4-14 MG為門檻值下，各解釋變數對台中市房價指數之影響...60
表4-15 總體變數對高雄市房價指數之參數估計...61
表4-16 MG為門檻值下，各解釋變數對高雄市房價指數之影響...62


圖目錄
圖1-1研究架構...6
圖2-1貨幣政策擬定的基本架構...7
圖3-1台灣區域房價指數之走勢(1991年Q1基期)...28
圖3-2羅吉斯函數圖形...36
圖3-3指數函數圖形...37

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