系統識別號 | U0002-0806200911290900 |
---|---|
DOI | 10.6846/TKU.2009.00182 |
論文名稱(中文) | 比較現貨與期貨的波動率在TXO市場之預測能力 |
論文名稱(英文) | Comparison of Forecasting Ability for Spot and Futures Volatilities: Empirical Study on TXO |
第三語言論文名稱 | |
校院名稱 | 淡江大學 |
系所名稱(中文) | 財務金融學系碩士班 |
系所名稱(英文) | Department of Banking and Finance |
外國學位學校名稱 | |
外國學位學院名稱 | |
外國學位研究所名稱 | |
學年度 | 97 |
學期 | 2 |
出版年 | 98 |
研究生(中文) | 曾國書 |
研究生(英文) | Guo-Shu Tzeng |
學號 | 696530830 |
學位類別 | 碩士 |
語言別 | 繁體中文 |
第二語言別 | |
口試日期 | 2009-05-19 |
論文頁數 | 143頁 |
口試委員 |
指導教授
-
段昌文(107800@mail.tku.edu.tw)
委員 - 陳達新 委員 - 林月能 委員 - 黃河泉 |
關鍵字(中) |
包含式迴歸 真實波動率 歷史波動率 決定性波動率函數模型 |
關鍵字(英) |
Encompassing Regression Realized Volatility History Volatilty deterministic volatility function |
第三語言關鍵字 | |
學科別分類 | |
中文摘要 |
本文以2001年12月至2008年5月間之台灣加權指數 (TX)、台指選擇權 (TXO)與台指期貨(TXF)日內及日資料,進一步於包含式模型中分別加入歷史波動率 (history volatility, HV)、真實波動率 (realized volatility, RV)、價平選擇權隱含波動率 (at-the money option impilied volatility, ATM)、決定性波動率函數 (deterministic volatility function, DVF) 等波動率預測模型之預測能力,並驗證TXF或台指指數何者可做為投資TXO市場之參考標的物。 實證結果顯示,由波動率預測模型之調整後R2以及相關係數分析指出,TXF之波動率預測模型對於TXO隱含波動率有較佳的解釋能力,其中以TXF之移動平均天數為十天的歷史波動率以及取樣頻率為9分鐘之真實波動率的解釋能力較高;由此證據顯示,相對於台指指數,TXF可為對於投資TXO市場較佳的參考標的物。投資績效顯示,無論是買賣買權或賣權的投資策略皆可獲得正向報酬;若在考慮交易成本下,則是以持有期間為五天之投資績效多能獲得正向的報酬。 |
英文摘要 |
This paper puts the volatility-forecasting models, including history volatility(HV), realized volatility(RV), at-the money option implied volatility(ATM) and deterministic volatility function(DVF) into the encompassing regression to examine the forecasting ability of volatility model for TX, TXO and TXF during December 2001 to May 2008. Also, we verify that TXF or TX which is the better reference object for investing in TXO market. Based on the results of the adjusted-R2 and correlation coefficient of volatility-forecasting models, we find that the forecasting ability for the implied-volatility of TXO is better with volatility-forecasting models of TXF than TX. For the forecasting-models of TXF, the history volatility which is estimated by 10-day moving average and the realized volatility which is estimated by 9-minute intraday sampling frequency have the higher explanation ability. By above-mentioned, we can prove that TXF is the better reference object for investing in TXO market than TX. However, in the analysis of investment strategy, the results indicate that the strategy has positive performance, regardless of call or put option strategy. Our results also show that only the investment strategy of 5-day holding period has the positive performance with the consideration of transaction cost. |
第三語言摘要 | |
論文目次 |
目 錄 目 錄 V 表目錄 VI 圖目錄 VIII 附錄 IX 第一章、緒論 1 第一節、研究動機 1 第二節、研究目的 3 第三節、論文架構 3 第二章、文獻探討 6 第一節、歷史波動率與真實波動率 6 第二節、隱含波動率模型 13 第三節、波動率的預測 20 第四節、包含式迴歸 23 第五節、投資績效的衡量 24 第六節、現貨與衍生性商品市場之領先-落後關係與價格發現之相關文獻 25 第三章、波動率模型 28 第一節、歷史波動率 28 第二節、真實波動率 29 第三節、隱含波動率與決定性波動率函數模型 30 第四章、研究設計與方法 33 第一節、取樣標準與研究設計 33 第二節、歷史波動率、真實波動率的估計 38 第三節、隱含波動率的估計 42 第四節、包含式迴歸分析 44 第五節、波動率模型預測能力檢定 45 第五節、投資績效的設計 47 第五章、實證結果 48 第一節期貨與現貨波動率估計結果 48 第二節 包含式迴歸分析結果 62 第三節、樣本內與外的預測結果 102 第四節、投資績效的衡量 109 第六章、結論 118 參考文獻 122 附錄 129 表目錄 表5-1-1 TXO隱含波動率之敘述統計量 49 表5-1-2買權隱含波動性依價性分類之敘述統計量 50 表5-1-3賣權隱含波動性依價性分類之敘述統計量 50 表5-1-4台指指數、TXF真實波動率估計值統計量表 55 表5-1-5台指指數、TXF之歷史波動模型預測值統計量 58 表5-1-6台指指數、TXF真實波動率預測值統計量 59 表5-1-7 ATM隱含波動率及其預測值之統計量 60 表5-1-8決定性波動率函數模型之預測值統計量 61 表5-2-1對台指指數9分鐘真實波動率之單一變數包含式迴歸結果 64 表5-2-2對台指指數15分鐘真實波動率之單一變數包含式迴歸結果 65 表5-2-3對台指指數30分鐘真實波動率之單一變數包含式迴歸結果 66 表5-2-4對台指指數9分鐘真實波動率之雙變數包含式迴歸結果 68 表5-2-5對台指指數15分鐘真實波動率之雙變數包含式迴歸結果 69 表5-2-6對台指指數30分鐘真實波動率之雙變數包含式迴歸結果 70 表5-2-7對台指指數9分鐘真實波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 72 表5-2-8對台指指數15分鐘真實波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 73 表5-2-9對台指指數30分鐘真實波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 74 表5-2-10對TXF 9分鐘真實波動率之單變數包含式迴歸結果 76 表5-2-11對TXF 15分鐘真實波動率之單變數包含式迴歸結果 77 表5-2-12對TXF 30分鐘真實波動率之單變數包含式迴歸結果 78 表5-2-13對TXF 9分鐘真實波動率之雙變數包含式迴歸結果 80 表5-2-14對TXF 15分鐘真實波動率之雙變數包含式迴歸結果 81 表5-2-15對TXF 30分鐘真實波動率之雙變數包含式迴歸結果 82 表5-2-16對TXF 9分鐘真實波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 84 表5-2-17對TXF 15分鐘真實波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 85 表5-2-18對TXF 30分鐘真實波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 86 表5-2-19對不分買賣權的TXO隱含波動率之單變數包含式迴歸結果 88 表5-2-20對買權的TXO隱含波動率之單變數包含式迴歸結果 89 表5-2-21對賣權的TXO隱含波動率之單變數包含式迴歸結果 90 表5-2-22對不分買賣權的TXO隱含波動率之雙變數迴歸結果表 92 表5-2-23對買權的TXO隱含波動率之雙變數迴歸結果表 93 表5-2-24對賣權的TXO隱含波動率之雙變數迴歸結果表 94 表5-2-25對不分買賣權的TXO隱含波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 98 表5-2-26對買權的TXO隱含波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 99 表5-2-27對賣權的TXO隱含波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 100 表5-2-28 TXO隱含波動率與自變數之相關係數表 101 表5-2-29對台指指數真實波動率之多變數包含式迴歸結果 101 表5-3-1台指指數各分鐘真實波動率預測模型之預測結果 105 表5-3-2 TXF各分鐘真實波動率預測模型之預測結果 106 表5-3-3 TXO隱含波動率預測模型之預測結果 107 續表5-3-3 TXO隱含波動率預測模型之預測結果 108 表5-4-1對台指指數真實波動率之預測模型持有一天之投資績效 112 表5-4-2對台指指數真實波動率之預測模型持有五天之投資績效 113 表5-4-3對 TXF真實波動率之預測模型持有一天之投資績效 114 表5-4-4 對TXF真實波動率之預測模型持有五天之投資績效 115 表5-4-5 對TXO隱含波動率之預測模型持有一天之投資績效 116 表5-4-6 對TXO隱含波動率之預測模型持有五天之投資績效 117 圖目錄 圖1-1研究流程圖 5 圖4-1 台指指數與TXF走勢圖 33 圖4-2 歷史波動率移動平均示意圖 39 圖5-1-1真實波動率在不同取樣頻率下之年平均值圖 52 圖5-1-2 台指指數與TXF之真實波動率在各個取樣頻率下的比較圖 53 圖5-1-3 台指指數9分鐘、15分鐘、30分鐘真實波動率與台指指數走勢圖 54 附錄 表1台指指數5天之歷史波動率EACF表 129 表2台指指數10天之歷史波動率EACF表 130 表3台指指數20天之歷史波動率EACF表 131 表4 TXF 5天之歷史波動率EACF表 132 表5 TXF 10天之歷史波動率EACF表 133 表6 TXF 20天之歷史波動率EACF表 134 表7台指指數歷史波動率預測模型檢定值 135 表8 TXF 歷史波動率預測模型檢定值 136 表9對台指指數真實波動率之預測模型持有一天之投資績效 137 表10對台指指數真實波動率之預測模型持有五天之投資績效 138 表11對 TXF真實波動率之預測模型持有一天之投資績效 139 表12 對TXF真實波動率之預測模型持有五天之投資績效 140 表13 對TXO隱含波動率之預測模型持有一天之投資績效 141 表14 對TXO隱含波動率之預測模型持有五天之投資績效 142 圖1台指指數歷史波動率估計值之ACF圖 143 圖2 TXF歷史波動率估計值之ACF圖 143 |
參考文獻 |
參考文獻 Akgiray, V., 1989, Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts, Journal of Business 62, 55-80. Andersen, T. G. and T. Bollerslev, 1998, Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts, International Economic Review 39, 885–905. Andersen, T. G., T. Bollerslev, F. X. Diebold, and P. Labys, 2001, The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility, Journal of the American Statistical Association 96, 42-55. Andersen, T. G., T. Bollerslev, F. X. Diebold, and H. Ebens, 2001, The Distribution of Realized Stock Return Volatility, Journal of Financial Economics 61, 43-76. Andersen, T. G., T. Bollerslev, F. X. Diebold, and P. Labys, 2003, Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility, Econometrica 71, 529-626. Andersen, T. G., T. Bollerslev and N. Meddahi, 2003, Correcting the Errors: A Note on Volatility Forecast Evaluation Based on High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities, Working paper, Duke University. Bakshi, G., C. Cao and Z. Chen, 1997, Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models, Journal of Finance 52, 2003-2049. Barndorff-Nielsen, O. E. and N. Shephard, 2002, Econometric Analysis of Realized Volatility and its Use in Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 64, 253-280. Beckers, S., 1981, Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability, Journal of Banking and Finance 5, 363-382. Black, F., and M. Scholes, 1973, The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities, Journal of Political Economy 81,637-654. Blair, B., S. Poon, and S. Taylor, 2001, Forecasting S&P 100 Volatility: the Incremental Information Content of Implied Volatilities and High-Frequency Index Returns, Journal of Econometrics 105, 5-26. Bollerslev, T., 1986, Generalised Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327. Bollerslev, T., R. Chou, and K. Kroner, 1992, ARCH Modeling in finance: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence, Journal of Econometrics 52, 5-59. Bollerslev, T. and J. H. Wright, 2001, High-Frequency Data, Frequency Domain Inference, and Volatility Forecasting, Review of Economics and Statistics 83, 596-602. Canina, L. and S. Figlewski, 1993, The Informational Content of Implied Volatility, Review of Financial Studies 6, 659-681. Chu, S. H. and S. Freund, 1996, Volatility estimation for stock index options: GARCH approach, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 36, 431-450. Christensen, B. J. and N. R. Prabhala, 1998, The Relation Between Implied and Realized Volatility, Journal of Financial Economics 50, 125-150. Chiras, D. P. and S. Manaster, 1978, The Information Content of Option Prices and a Test of Market Efficiency, Journal of Financial Economics 10, 213-234. .Chu, Q. C., W. G. Hsieh, and Y. Tse, 1999, Price discovery on the S&P 500 Index Markets:An Analysis of Spot Index, Index Futures, and SPDRs, International Review of Financial Analysis 8, 21-34. Claessen, H. and S. Mittnik, 2002, Forecasting Stock Market Volatility and the Informational Efficiency of the DAX-Index Options Market, European Journal of Finance 8, 302-321. Clements, M. P. and N. Taylor, 2003, Evaluating Interval Forecasts of High-Frequency Financial Data, Journal of Applied Econometrics 18, 445-455. Cox, J. C., S. Ross, and M. Rubinstein, 1979, Option Pricing:A simplified Approach, Journal of Financial Economics 7, 229-264. David P. S., 2002, Implied Volatility Forecasts in the Grains Complex, Journal of Futures Markets 22, 959-981. Day, T. E. and C. M. Lewis, 1992, Stock market volatility and the information content of stock index options, Journal of Econometrics 52, 267-287. Drost, F. C. and T. E. Nijman, 1993, Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes, Econometrica 61, 909-927. Dumsa, B., J., Fleming, and R., E., Whaley, 1998, Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests, Journal of Finance 6, 2059-2106. Duque, J. and P. Teixeira Lopes, 1999, Maturity and Volatility Effects on Smiles or Dying Smiling? Paper presented at EFA 1999, Helsinki. Engle, R. F., 1982, Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with estimates of the variance of U.K. inflation, Econometrica 50, 987-1008. Feinstein, S. P., 1989, The Black-Scholes Formula is nearly in σ for at-the-money Options; therefore Implied Volatilities from at-the-money Options are virtually Unbiased, Unpublished manuscript (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA). Figlewski, S., 1997, Forecasting Volatility, Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments 6, 1-88. Figlewski, S., and X. Wang, 2000, Is the “Leverage Effect” a Leverage Effect? Working Paper S-00-37, New York University, Stern School of Business. Fleming, J., 1998, The Quality of Market Volatility Forecasts Implied by S&P 100 Index Option Prices, Journal of Empirical Finance 5, 317-345. Fleming, J., B. Ostdiek and R. E. Whaley, 1996, Trading Costs and The Relative Rates of Price Discovery in Stock, Futures, and Option Markets, Journal of Futures Markets 16,353-387. French, K. R., G. W. Schwart and R. F. Stambaugh, 1987, Expected Stock Returns and Volatility, Journal of Financial Economics 19, 3-29. Gemmill, G., 1986, The Forecasting Performance of Stock Options on the London Traded Options Marker, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 13, 535-546. Glosten, L. R., R. Jagannathan, and D. Runkle , 1993, On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks, Journal of Finance 48, 1779-1801. Gwilym, O. A. and M. Buckle, 1999, Volatility Forecasting in the Framework of the Option Expiry Circle, European Journal of Finance 5, 73-94. Gwilym, O. A. and M. Buckle, 2001, The Lead-Lag Relationship between the FTSE100 Stock Index and its Derivative contracts, Applied Financial Economics 11, 385-393. Harvey, C. R. and R. E. Whaley, 1991, S&P100 Index Option Volatility, Journal of Finance 46, 1551-1561. Harvey, C. R. and R. E. Whaley, 1992, Market Volatility Prediction and the Efficiency of the S&P 100 Index Option Market, Journal of Financial Economics 31, 43-73. Heynen, R. C. and H. M. Kat, 1995, Lookback Options with Discrete and Partial Monitoring of the Underlying Price, Applied Mathematical Finance 2, 273-284. Hull, J. and A. White, 1987, The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities, Journal of Finance 42, 281-300. Johnson, N. E. 1978, Modified t-tests and confidence intervals for asymmetrical populations, Journal of American Statistical Association 73, 536-544. Jorion, P., 1995, Prediction volatility in the foreign exchange market, Journal of Finance 50, 507-528. Lamoureux, D. and W. Lastrapes, 1993, Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities, Review of Financial Studies 6, 293-326. Latane, H. A. and R. J. Rendleman, 1976, Standard deviations of stock price ratios implied in options price, Journal of Finance 31, 361-381. Li, K., 2002, Long-memory Versus Option-Implied Volatility Predictions, Journal of Derivatives 9, 9-25. MacBeth, J. and L., Merville, 1979, An Empirical Examination of the Black–Scholes Call Option Pricing Model, Journal of Finance 34, 1173-1186. Mayhew, S., 1995, Implied Volatility, Financial Analysts Journal 50, 8-20. Merton, R. C., 1980, On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: an Exploratory Investigation, Journal of Financial Economics 8, 323-361. Mizon, G. E. and J. F. Richard, 1986, The Encompassing Principle and its Application to Testing Non-nested Hypotheses, Econometrica 54, 657-678. Muller, U. A., M. M. Dacorogna, R. B. Olsen, M. Schwarz and C. Morgenegg, 1990, Statistical Study of Foreign Exchange Rates, Empirical Evidence of a Price Change Scaling Law, and Intraday Analysis, Journal of Banking and Finance 14, 1189-1208. Nelson, D. B., 1991, Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Asset Returns:A New Approach, Econometrics 59, 347-370. Parkinson, M., 1980, The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return, Journal of Business 53, 61-65. Pong, S., M. B. Shackleton, S. J. Taylor and X. Xu, 2004, Forecasting Currency Volatility: A Comparison of Implied Volatilities and AR(FI)MA models, Journal of Banking and Finance 28, 2541-2563. Poon, S. H. and C. W. J. Granger, 2003, Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review, Journal of Economic Literature 41, 478-539. Poteshman, A. M., 2000, Forecasting future volatility from option price, Working paper, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Rubinstein, M., 1985, Nonparametric Tests of Alternative Option Pricing Models Using All Reported Trades and Quotes on the 30 Most Active CBOE Option Classes from August 23,1976 through August 31,1978, Journal of Finance 40, 455-480. Schwert, G. W., 1989, Why does Stock Market Volatility change over time? Journal of Finance 44, 1115-1153. Schwert, G. W. and P. J. Seguin, 1990, Heteroscedasticity in stock returns, Journal of Finance 4, 1129-1155. Speight, E. A. H., D. G. Mcmillan, and O. A. Gwilym, 2000, Intra-Day Volatility Components in FTSE-100 Stock Index Futures, Journal of Futures Markets 20, 425-444. Szakmary, A., E. Ors, J. K. Kim, and W. N. Davidson III, 2003, The Predictive Power of Implied Volatility: Evidence from 35 Futures Markets, Journal of Banking and Finance 27, 2151-2175. Taylor, S. J., and X. Xu, 1997, The Incremental Volatility Information in One Million Foreign Exchange Quotations, Journal of Empirical Finance 4, 317-340. Trippi, R. R., 1977, A Test of Option Market Efficiency using a Random-Walk Valuation Model, Journal of Economics and Business 29, 93-98. Vasilellis, G. A. and N. Meade, 1996, Forecasting Volatility for Portfolio Selection, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 23, 125-143. Wiggins J., 1987, Options Values Under Stochastic Volatility: Theory and Empirical Estimates, Journal of Financial Economics 19, 351-372. Zakoian, J. M., 1994, Threshold heteroskedastic models, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier 18,931-955. Zhou, Y., 1996, Inter-firm Linkages, Ethnic Networks, and Territorial Agglomeration: Chinese Computer firms in Los Angeles, Papers in Regional Science 75, 265-291. |
論文全文使用權限 |
如有問題,歡迎洽詢!
圖書館數位資訊組 (02)2621-5656 轉 2487 或 來信