近年行為財務學的興起，以行為因素來輔助說明股市的變化，而本研究試圖將此影響延伸至銀行廠商利率制定行為，透過天氣對銀行經理人心情與行為的影響，探討好天氣、資本管制、存款市場利率與銀行放款利率之間的相關性。

本文模型在假設銀行廠商在追求權益價值極大化之前提下，建立其目標函數，模型導入 Black and Scholes 提出的或有請求權分析法，並結合投資組合理論中，面對好天氣的情緒、資本管制、及存款市場利率下的風險考量及廠商理論之放款利率制定行為，建立均衡利率模型並作比較靜態分析。

本文主要的結論有三：(1) 當銀行處於正的或中立風險彈性效果下，當放款利率與天氣為策略性替代時，晴天導致經理人樂觀的心情因而降低銀行的放款利率 (2) 當銀行面對負的彈性效果下，提高資本存款比率會降低銀行的放款利率 ( 3) 在策略替代之下，存款市場利率的提高因而降低銀行放款利率。根據本文的結果，本文建議銀行經理人回歸理性思考，避免因為好的天氣帶來的樂觀態度而作成追逐過多風險的決策。

Recent years the behavioral finance arises, utilizing behavioral factors to explain possible influences in the stock market.  Therefore, our model attempts to use some behavioral interference of loan rate-setting determination, in particular, through the influences of the weather on the bank manager’s mood as well as behavior, and to study how sunny weather, capital regulation, deposit market interest rate, and optimal loan rate relate to one another.
   
In the model, we construct the bank’s objective function by assuming the bank maximizes its return of equity capital.  We use a contingent claim approach based on the option-based Black-Scholes valuation and further integrate the risk considerations of the portfolio-theoretic approach with moods due to sunny weather, capital regulation, deposit market interest rate, and loan rate-setting decision making of the firm-theoretic approach. 

There are major three conclusions described as follows.  (1) When the risk-based elasticity effect of the bank is positive or neutral, an increase in manager’s upbeat mood owing to be influenced by sunshine weather, decreases the bank’s optimal loan rate under strategic substitutes.  (2) An increase in the capital-to-deposits ratio decreases the bank’s optimal loan rate when the bank stays in a good financial state.  (3) An increase in the deposit market interest rate decreases the bank’s optimal loan rate with strategic substitutes.  According to the results above, we suggest that bank manager avoid pursuing a higher risk due to an optimistic choice and be encouraged to be rational.

目錄
目錄        I
圖表目錄    II
第一章  緒論	1
第一節  研究動機	1
第二節  研究目的	2
第三節  研究架構	3
第二章 文獻探討	5
第一節  BLACK AND SCHOLES 評價模型之相關文獻	5
第二節  天氣、心情與決策行為之相關文獻	11
第三節  天氣、心情與報酬之相關文獻	15
第四節  銀行風險與利率制定之相關文獻	22
第三章  基本模型	27
第一節  模型之基本假設	27
第二節  目標函數的建立	33
第四章  模型均衡條件與比較靜態分析	39
第一節  模型均衡條件	39
第二節  天氣對放款利率之影響	41
第三節  資本存款比率對放款利率之影響	46
第四節  存款市場利率對放款利率的影響	47
第五章  結論	50
附錄	52
參考文獻	53

圖表目錄
圖 1-1 本文之研究架構	4
表 2-1 BLACK AND SCHOLES 評價模型之相關文獻	10
表 2-2 天氣、心情與決策行為之相關文獻	14
表 2-3 天氣、心情與股價報酬之相關文獻	21
表 2-4 銀行風險與利率制定之相關文獻	26

中文文獻

丁美蓉 (2001)，「存款保險、銀行隱藏行為與利差管理」，淡江大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文。

王惠光 (1992)，「公司債權人、受託人的地位與權限」，證券市場發展季刊，第13期，頁40-56。

李保中 (2003)，「利率上限避險契約與銀行放款利率管理─選擇權評價模式分析」，淡江大學國際貿易學系在職專班碩士論文。

林炯垚 (1988)，「公司代理關係對股東權益的影響」，證券管理，第12期，頁2-6。

林峻嘉 (2000)，「銀行廠商之存款與放款行為決策—或有請求權分析法」，淡江大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文。

郭敏華，李謙 (2002)，「陽光影響投資情緒？以台灣股票市場為例」，台灣金融財務季刊，第六輯，第二期，頁35-51。

黃麗瑛 (2004)，「陽光效用與股票市場－以新產品上市宣告為例」，國立成功大學國際企業研究所碩士論文。

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