本論文探討俄羅斯市場的潛力，並為有意進入該市場的台商做策略分析。台俄經貿始於1992年，一般而言，貿易量是成長的，但當俄羅斯改變其經濟戰略並實行「休克療法」時，經濟改革路線卻未如預期平順，隨後引爆的金融危機更導致俄羅斯經濟瀕臨崩解。1998年時，有些台商因為盧布的升值而無法收到貨款，或是被取消訂單，致使這些廠商改變態度並停止與俄國人交易，台俄經貿量自此開始減少。因此我們發現，俄羅斯政經情勢對台俄經貿關係影響甚鉅。
本研究預設俄羅斯政治環境與經濟情勢是影響台俄間經貿關係的主因，現今俄羅斯政經情勢逐漸好轉，故我們預測台俄經貿關係也將隨之好轉。我們以政治經濟研究途徑、歷史研究途徑，SWOT分析及Heckscher-Ohlin理論進行研究，結論摘略如下：
雖然俄羅斯市場極度取決於其政經狀況，且總伴隨危機，台俄間經貿仍然存在許多誘人的商機。俄羅斯豐沛的原物料、勞動力及高科技為台灣產業發展所需，相對而言，台灣的精美消費品、管理、產品設計、行銷及蓬勃的中小企業也為俄羅斯經濟轉型所需，依此互補的需求，我們可言雙邊經貿、投資及科技合作的潛力仍大有可為，我們也依台俄間互補的特性列舉10類標的產業。
在現行APEC及未來WTO(俄尚未獲准入世)架構下，俄羅斯經貿環境應會改善以符合國際標準，進口消費品與服務的需求，及市場的公平競爭對進入俄羅斯市場的台商而言是大好機會。本論文也提出若干建議供參。

This thesis is to discuss the potential of Russian market, and develop a strategic analysis for Taiwanese enterprises which intend to enter the market. Taiwan-Russia trade has started since 1992. Roughly speaking, the amount of the trade was growing. However, when Russia started to change their economic strategy, and implemented the “shock therapy”, the route of economic reform was not as smooth as expected. The outbreak of financial crisis leaded to the collapse of Russian economy. In 1998, some Taiwanese businessmen couldn’t receive payment of goods or the orders were cancelled because of the evaluation of ruble. It has made those businessmen change their attitude and stop trading with their Russian counterparts. The amount of Taiwan-Russia trade became decreasing since then. Therefore, we found that Russian political and economic situations have great impact upon Taiwan-Russia trade relations.This research is taking the preliminary position that Russian political environments and Russia economic situations are the main reason which influent the economy and trade relation between Taiwan and Russia. The present Russian political and economic situations are getting better, so we forecast that Taiwan-Russia economic and trade relation will be also better in the future. We use political economy approach, historical approach, SWOT analysis, and Heckscher-Ohlin theorem to do this research, and conclude as follows:Although the Russian market depends heavily on its political and economic conditions, and risks are always there, trades between Taiwan and Russia still exist many attractive opportunities. Russia’s abundant raw materials, labor forces, and high technology are just what Taiwan needs for industrial development; on the contrary, Taiwan’s fine consumer products, management, product design, marketing, and exuberant SMEs are also what Russia needs for economic transformation. By the complementary demands, we can say that the potentials of bilateral trading, investing, and technical cooperations are still vast to be developed. We list 10 target industries according to the complementary properties between Taiwan and Russia.Under the framework of the APEC and future the WTO, the Russian economic and trading environments should be improved to comply with international standards. The demands of importing consumer products and services, and the fair competition in the market are good opportunities for Taiwanese enterprises to enter the Russian market. Some suggestions are also provided in this thesis.

List of Tables ..... i
List of Figures ..... ii
Chapter 1: Introduction ..... 1
 1.1 Research Motivations and Objectives ..... 1
 1.2 Research Methods ..... 3
 1.3 Research Scope and Limitations ..... 6
Chapter 2: Literature Review ..... 7
 2.1 Emerging Markets ..... 7
  2.1.1 Definitions ..... 7
  2.1.2 The BRICs ..... 11
  2.1.3 Opportunities and Risks ..... 17
 2.2 Entry Models to Foreign Markets ..... 21
 2.3 Barriers to Entry for Firms into a Market ..... 32
Chapter 3: Environments and Situations of the Russian Market ..... 34
 3.1 Politics ..... 34
  3.1.1 Constitution, Institutions and Administration ..... 34
  3.1.2 Political Forces ..... 38
  3.1.3 International Relations and Defense ..... 39
  3.1.4 Political Transition ..... 41
 3.2 Economy ..... 44
  3.2.1 Economic Structure ..... 44
  3.2.2 Economic Policy ..... 45
  3.2.3 Economic Performance ..... 48
  3.2.4 Economic Sectors ..... 54
  3.2.5 External Sectors ..... 58
  3.2.6 Economic Transition ..... 67
 3.3 Resources and Infrastructure ..... 72
  3.3.1 Human Resources ..... 72
  3.3.2 Natural Resources and Environments ..... 73
  3.3.3 Infrastructure ..... 75
 3.4 Challenges Ahead ..... 77
Chapter 4: Strategic Analysis of Market Entry to Russia for Taiwanese Enterprises ..... 80
 4.1 SWOT Analysis ..... 80
  4.1.1 Analysis of Russian Market ..... 85
  4.1.2 Analysis of Taiwanese Enterprises ..... 87
  4.1.3 Result ..... 88
 4.2 Suggested Target Industries ..... 89
  4.2.1 Aeronautic and Aerospace Related Industries ..... 90
  4.2.2 Computer and IT Related Industries ..... 90
  4.2.3 Energy Facility and Related Industries ..... 90
  4.2.4 Medical and Health Related Industries ..... 91
  4.2.5 Machinery and Manufacturing Related Industries ..... 91
  4.2.6 Forestry and Furniture Related Industries ..... 92
  4.2.7 Communication and Household Appliance Related Industries ..... 92
  4.2.8 Automobile Parts and Related Industries ..... 93
  4.2.9 Beauty and Cosmetic Related Industries ..... 93
  4.2.10 Other Necessities and Related Industries ..... 94
 4.3 Prospects between Taiwan and Russia ..... 95
Chapter 5: Conclusion and Suggestions ..... 98
 5.1 Conclusion ..... 98
 5.2 Suggestions ..... 99
References ..... 102
   I. Literatures ..... 102
   II Websites ..... 109
Appendices ..... 111
   I. The Federal Law on Foreign Investment in the Russian Federation ..... 111
   II. Calendar of Fairs and Exhibition EXPOCENTR Moscow 2006－Russia ..... 125

 
List of Tables


Table 2-1. Major Emerging Economies ..... 8
Table 2-2. Goldman-Sachs’ Comparative Projections of BRICs and G6 ..... 13
Table 2-3. Top 10 Countries by Labor Force ..... 14
Table 2-4. Taiwan’s Investments in BRICs (up to 2004) ..... 17
Table 2-5. BERI 2005 2nd Evaluation of POR Indexes for Main Countries ..... 19
Table 3-1. Basic Data of Russian Federation ..... 36
Table 3-2. Population and Land Area by Russian Federal District ..... 37
Table 3-3. Russia’s Important Political Events ..... 41
Table 3-4. Russia’s Macroeconomic Indicators ..... 47
Table 3-5. Recent Credit Rating of Russian Federation ..... 51
Table 3-6. 2005 Index of Economic Freedom ..... 52
Table 3-7. A.T. Kearney’s 2005 Global Retail Development Index ..... 53
Table 3-8. Foreign Trade of Russia ..... 59
Table 3-9. Foreign Trade Products of Russia in 2004 ..... 59
Table 3-10. Russia’s Important Economic Events ..... 68
Table 3-11. Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2004 ..... 74
Table 3-12. Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2005 ..... 79
Table 4-1. Taiwan’s Top 50 Exporting Countries (2002~2004) ..... 81
Table 4-2. Taiwan’s Top 50 Importing Countries (2002~2004) ..... 82
Table 4-3. Taiwan’s Top 20 Products Exporting to Russia (2004) ..... 83
Table 4-4. Taiwan’s Top 30 Products Importing from Russia (2004) ..... 84
Table 4-5. SWOT Analysis of Russian Market ..... 86
Table 4-6. SWOT Analysis of Taiwanese Enterprises ..... 88
Table 4-7. Major Exhibitions in Russia ..... 97
	
	
	
	
List of Figures



Figure 2-1. Overtaking the G6: When BRICs US$GDP Would Exceed G6 ..... 12
Figure 2-2. Population over Age 25 with Completed Tertiary Education ..... 15
Figure 2-3. The Largest Economies in 2050 ..... １6
Figure 2-4. Classification of Foreign Entry Modes ..... 23
Figure 2-5. The Familiarity Matrix ..... 26
Figure 2-6. Origin of Resources Employed in Alternative Entry Modes ..... 27
Figure 2-7. The Globalization Strategy Process Model ..... 31
Figure 3-1. Map of Russian Federation ..... 35
Figure 3-2. GDP and GDP Growth of Russian Federation ..... 48
Figure 3-3. GRDI 2005 Country Attractiveness ..... 54
Figure 3-4. Oil Prices, 1994~2005 ..... 71

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