緬甸和中國已被鎖定數十年的關係中，經濟和安全的商品似乎已經交換的主要貨幣。這種關係經常被在政策，媒體和學術界在該屬性負，如果不是徹底不祥的內涵的關係的方式進行討論。在分析整個幾十年的緬甸，中國的關係 - 特別是關於經濟力量在塑造的基本特徵和關係的平衡所起的作用 - 本論文發現使用經濟或安全工具，沒有證據強制的結構動力學。中國和緬甸之間的關係一直建立在共同的興趣;根據互動媲美那些兩個國家採用與其他國際夥伴的圖案外交保護和驗證，經濟貨物已交換。這些交流頻繁，但在本質上零碎的和非排他性。這種模式，本文認為，很有可能在未來即使緬甸政治改革繼續。

Myanmar and China have been part for decades of a relationship in which economic and security goods would appear to have been the main currencies of exchange. This relationship has often been discussed in policy, media and academic circles in ways that attribute negative if not outright ominous connotations to the relationship. In analysing the Myanmar-China relationship across the decades – with particular reference to the role that economic forces played in shaping the fundamental traits and the balance of the relationship – this thesis finds no evidence of structural dynamics of coercion using either economic or security tool. The relationship between China and Myanmar has been based on mutual interest; diplomatic validation and economic goods have been exchanged according to patterns of interaction comparable to those which both countries employed with other international partners. These exchanges have been frequent but in nature piecemeal and non-exclusive. This pattern, this thesis argues, is likely to continue in the future even as Myanmar reforms politically.

Table of Contents


Introduction	1
Personal Motivation	1
Research Problem and Objective	1
Methodology and Structure	2
Note on the Nomenclature	3
Chapter 1 – Early China-Burma Relations: 1948-1976	3
Introduction	4
The First Phase: 1948-1976	5
Non-Alignment in Burmese Foreign Policy	15
Fear of China	23
The Nature of Burma-China Cooperation	26
Conclusions	29
Chapter 2 – China-Myanmar Relations: 1976-2011	30
Introduction	30
Laying the groundwork: 1976-1988	31
International Ostracism, International Support	42
‘Domination’, ‘Entrapment’ and the Sino-Burmese ‘Alliance’: Myths and Inventions	44
China-Burma Relations between 1988 and 2011: the Reality	52
Conclusion	60
Chapter 3 – Chinese Investment and Trade in Myanmar	61
Introduction	61
A Note on the Data	62
Myanmar and International Sanctions	65
China-Myanmar Bilateral Trade	69
Chinese Investments in Myanmar	74
The Consequences of Chinese investments for Myanmar	81
Conclusion	85
Chapter 4 – Myanmar’s Political Transition	86
Introduction	86
Causes and Influences of the Political Transformation	88
The Process of Transition	98
The substance of the transition	101
The 2015 elections	108
Conclusion	110
Chapter 5 – China-Myanmar Economic Relations after the Transition	111
Introduction	111
What happened?	112
How is China responding?	119
What lies ahead?	123
Conclusion	125

Cited Works	127
Books	128
Government Documents and Publications	129
Journal Articles	130
News Articles	133
Reports	140
Websites	142








Tables and Figures

Figure No. 1	64
Figure No. 2	67
Figure No. 3	68
Figure No. 4	70
Figure No. 5	71
Figure No. 6	71
Figure No. 7	72
Figure No. 8	78
Figure No. 9	79
Figure No. 10	80

Table No. 1	55
Table No. 2	76

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Kyaw Hsu Mon, (2014). A Waiting Game for Burma’s Business Community in 2014. Irrawaddy. Retrieved from http://www.irrawaddy.org/business/waiting-game-burmas-business-community-2014.html 
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Nyein Nyein, (2014). NLD, 88 Generation Target Military Veto Over Burma Constitutional Reform. Irrawaddy. Retrieved from http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/nld-88-generation-target-military-veto-burma-constitutional-reform.html 
Pennington, M. (2013). US Blacklists Burma Firms for North Korea Arms Trade. Irrawaddy. Retrieved from http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/us-blacklists-burma-firms-north-korea-arms-trade.html 
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People's Daily, (2013). Myanmar-China gas pipeline starts to deliver gas to China. Retrieved from http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90778/8343775.html 
Powell, C. (2003). It's Time to Turn the Tables On Burma's Thugs. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved from http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB105537654192139700 
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Robinson, G. (2014). Myanmar cleans house – China’s worst nightmare?. Financial Times. Retrieved from http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/04/15/myanmar-cleans-house-chinas-worst-nightmare/ 
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Steinberg, D. (2006). Burma and Lessons from the Hungarian Revolution. Irrawaddy. Retrieved from http://www2.irrawaddy.org/print_article.php?art_id=6379 

Storey, I. (2011). Burma and China: The Beginning of the End of Business as Usual?. Jamestown Foundation. Retrieved from http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38718&no_cache=1 
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Reports

Bangkok Research Center, (2014). Myanmar's Integration with Global Economy: Outlook and Opportunities. Bangkok.

Arakan Oil Watch, Blocking Freedom. (2008) (1st ed.). Retrieved from http://arakanoilwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/Blocking-Freedom-English.pdf 

Burma Fund United Nations Office, (2011). Burma’s 2010 Elections: a comprehensive report. New York.

CIA, (1971). Peking and the Burmese Communists.

DLA Piper Rudnick Gray Cary, (2005). Threat to the Peace: A Call for the UN Security Council to Act in Burma.

DLA Piper, Perseus Strategies, JBI, (2013). Myanmar Rule of Law Assessment.

EarthRights International. China in Burma (2008). Retrieved from http://www.earthrights.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-in-Burma-update-2008-English.pdf 

Fan, H. (2014). China Adapts to New Myanmar Realities. Singapore: ISEAS.

Gaining Ground – Earth Rights Abuses in Burma Exposed. (2008) (1st ed.). Retrieved from http://dg5vd3ocj3r4t.cloudfront.net/sites/default/files/publications/Gaining-Ground-ERSB-2008.pdf 

Ghai, Y. (n.d.). The 2008 Myanmar Constitution: Analysis and Assessment (1st ed.). Retrieved from http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs6/2008_Myanmar_constitution--analysis_and_assessment-Yash_Ghai.pdf 

Gurtov, M. (1969). The foreign ministry and foreign affairs in China's Cultural Revolution. Santa Monica: The RAND Corporation.

International Crisis Group. (2009). China's Myanmar Dilemma. Retrieved from http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/north-east-asia/177_chinas_myanmar_dilemma.pdf 

International Crisis Group. (2010). China’s Myanmar Strategy: Elections, Ethnic Politics and Economics. Retrieved from http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/north-east-asia/B112%20Chinas%20Myanmar%20Strategy%20%20Elections%20Ethnic%20Politics%20and%20Economics.pdf 

International Crisis Group, (2012). Myanmar: Storm Clouds on the Horizon. Retrieved from http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/south-east-asia/burma-myanmar/238-myanmar-storm-clouds-on-the-horizon.pdf 
International Crisis Group, (2012). Myanmar: The Politics of Economic Reform. Retrieved from http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/south-east-asia/burma-myanmar/231-myanmar-the-politics-of-economic-reform.pdf 
International Crisis Group, (2013). Not a Rubber Stamp. Retrieved from http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/south-east-asia/burma-myanmar/b142-not-a-rubber-stamp-myanmars-legislature-in-a-time-of-transition.pdf 
International Crisis Group. (2014). Myanmar’s Military: Back to the Barracks?. Retrieved from http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/south-east-asia/burma-myanmar/b143-myanmar-s-military-back-to-the-barracks.pdf 

Human Rights Watch, (2008). Vote to Nowhere – The May 2008 Constitutional Referendum in Burma. New York: Human Rights Watch.
Human Rights Watch, (2010). Burma: Military Party Guaranteed to Dominate Elections. Retrieved 1 June 2014, from http://www.hrw.org/news/2010/07/19/burma-military-party-guaranteed-dominate-elections 

Institute for Political Analysis and Documentation, (2009). No Real Choice: An Assessment of Burma's 2008 Referendum. 

International Labour Organisation, (2009). The Cost of Coercion. Geneva.

Chang, A. (2013). Beijing and the Chinese Diaspora  in Southeast Asia: To Serve the People. NBR Special Report #43. National Bureau of Asian Research.

Selth, A. (2003). Burma's China Connection and the Indian Ocean Region. Canberra: Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University.
Selth, A. (2007). Burma and Nuclear Proliferation: Policies and perceptions. Griffith Asia Institute.
Selth, A. (2007). Chinese Military Bases in Burma: The Explosion of a Myth. Griffith Asia Institute.
Selth, A. (2009). Burma’s Armed Forces - Looking Down the Barrel. Griffith Asia Institute.

Shwe Gas Movement, (2013). Drawing the Line. Retrieved from http://burmacampaign.org.uk/media/DrawingTheLine.pdf 

Sun, Y. (2013). Chinese Investment in Myanmar: What Lies Ahead?. Washington: Stimson Center.

Swanstrom, N. (2012). Sino–Myanmar Relations: Security and Beyond. Stockholm: Institute for Security and Development Policy.

The Public International Law & Policy Group, (2008). Burmese Constitutional Referendum:  Neither Free nor Fair. The Public International Law & Policy Group.

Tomar, R. (1992). Burma since 1988: the Politics of Dictatorship. Australian Parliamentary Research Service.
Transparency International, (2010). 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index.

Wilson, T., & Kinley, D. (2007). Engaging a Pariah: Human Rights Training in Burma/Myanmar. Sydney: Sydney Centre for International Law.

Yi, H. (2013). Myanmar’s Policy toward the Rising China since 1989. Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University.


Websites

Altsean-Burma, (n.d.). SPDC Arms Suppliers. Retrieved 13 May 2014, from http://www.altsean.org/Research/SPDC%20Whos%20Who/Armssuppliers.htm

Archive of the American Presidency Project, the University of California Santa Barbara, (n.d.). Joint Statement Following Discussions With General Ne Win of Burma. Retrieved 4 May 2014, from http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=27849 

Aung San, (1946). An Address to the Anglo-Burmans. aungsan.com. Retrieved 6 May 2014, from http://www.aungsan.com/Anglo_Burmans.htm 

Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, (2013). Myanmar moving towards the EITI. Retrieved from http://eiti.org/news/myanmar-moving-towards-eiti 

GovTrack.us, (2008). H.R. 3890 (110th): Tom Lantos Block Burmese JADE (Junta’s Anti-Democratic Efforts) Act of 2008. Retrieved 20 May 2014, from https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/110/hr3890/text 

Gutter, P., & Sen, B. (2001). The Burmese Junta’s Abuse of Investment Laws. Burma's Lawyers Council. Retrieved from http://www.ibiblio.org/obl/docs/LIOB09-InvestmentLaw.htm

Indexmundi.com, (2014). Burma GDP (official exchange rate) - Economy. Retrieved 11 May 2014, from http://www.indexmundi.com/burma/gdp_(official_exchange_rate).html 

Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, (2013). Notification of the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Environmental Protection on Issuing the Guidelines for Environmental Protection in Foreign Investment and Cooperation. Retrieved 9 June 2014, from http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/article/policyrelease/bbb/201303/20130300043226.shtml 

Myanmar Directorate of Investment and Company Administration, (2014). Foreign Investment of Permitted Enterprises as of April 30th 2014. Retrieved 24 May 2014, from http://www.dica.gov.mm/dicagraph1.htm 

PIIE (Peterson Insitute for International Economics), (n.d.). Case Studies in Sanctions and Terrorism: Burma (Myanmar). Retrieved 11 May 2014, from http://www.iie.com/research/topics/sanctions/myanmar.cfm 

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, (n.d.). EU arms embargo on China. Retrieved 18 May 2014, from http://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/eu_arms_embargoes/china

The United Nations' Department of Public Information, (2007). Security Council Fails to Adopt Draft Resolution on Myanmar owing to Negative Votes from China, Russian Federation. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2007/sc8939.doc.htm 

USEmbassy.gov, (2009). Remarks by Secretary Clinton, Indonesian Foreign Minister Wirajuda. Retrieved 31 May 2014, from http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2009/02/20090224191239xjsnommis0.9771692.html#axzz33Gs0jwy6 

Wikileaks, (2009). Burmese Official Confirms Burma-DPRK "peaceful" nuclear cooperation. Retrieved 31 May 2014, from https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09RANGOON502_a.html 
Wikileaks.org, (2009). Cable: 09RANGOON808_a. Retrieved 23 May 2014, from https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09RANGOON808_a.html