||Tackling the Sustainability Issues with Biofuels? A Case Study on the Policy Window of the Netherlands Transitioning toward A ‘Biobased Economy’
||Graduate Institute of European Studies
||Cindy Sie-Shong Hsiung
Policy Window Model
||本研究旨在以金頓(John W. Kingdon)之政策窗決策模型(policy window model)分析荷蘭生質燃料政策轉向生物經濟(biobased economy)之政策變遷個案。荷蘭制定生質燃料政策乃基於歐盟會員國執行2003年生質燃料指令之義務，於執行初期設有生質燃料創新技術之研發與示範補助經費，然而研究逐漸發現生質燃料的永續性議題具有高度複雜性，而與食物鏈競爭的第一代生質燃料也引發全球性的爭議，因而要求政府擴大補助以發展較具永續性之生質能(biomass)技術。荷蘭政府於2007年10月針對化學、材料、能源與生質燃料等產業，公布自石油經濟轉型為生物經濟之政策願景，整合相關之現行能源與產業政策，並針對生質能之「非食品」創新工業應用和市場推進新增預算。生質燃料及其永續性議題之政策經驗，成為後石油時代生物經濟之政策先驅，而生質燃料亦從作為轉換汽車能源之政策工具，躍升為成就國家願景的基石之一。生質燃料政策轉向生物經濟之政策概念是如何被推往決策議程的? 為何決策發生在2007年此一特定時間點? 本研究依據政策窗模型之分析架構，釐出個案中影響政策變遷的「問題流」、「政策流」和「政治流」，並發現個案中的「政策企業家」為以農業部為主之政府官員、以生質能研究為優勢之大學和研究機構，以及於荷蘭經濟扮演重要角色之化學產業；其整合生物經濟之政策概念，於新聯合政府上台之際，向決策者行銷為能同時解決工業用生質能之永續性爭議、和符合經營國家競爭力所需之產業策略。當問題、政策與政治三流匯合，即開啟了機會之窗，使生物經濟之政策建議獲得決策者採納。本個案所呈現之實務經驗與理性決策模型相異，而金頓的政策窗模型則為失序狀態之政策系統提供適用之分析架構，運用於本研究具有良好的解釋能力。惟政策窗模型乃針對系統層級之政策變遷因素，並且較不著重媒體於政策過程中所扮演的積極角色，本研究建議未來運用該模型時能配合媒體理論和次系統層級之分析工具，以加強對於影響政策變遷之因素之分析能力。
||This study aims to explain the policy transition in the Netherlands, from biofuels to ‘biobased economy,’ with the policy window model introduced by John W. Kingdon. The Dutch transport biofuels policy was installed primarily because of the obligation to implement EU legislation. As it became clear that biofuels sustainability was extremely complex issue and the use of food-based biomass for fuels was highly controversial, however, the Dutch government had not sufficiently addressed the need for subsidies and strategies for sustainable biomass technologies, until the broader industrial sectors, especially chemicals, also lobbied for support for the development of biobased raw materials. In October 2007, the government formulated an official vision on the biobased economy (BBE) for energy transition, which integrated existing energy programs and expanded the budget basis to stimulate innovation and market facilitation for biomass for non-food applications, to which the policy experience of biofuels, including their sustainability issues, became relevant. The biofuels policy thus was ‘upgraded’ from being an instrument of energy transition for the transport sector to a building block of the Dutch BBE. Whereas the way in which the policy developed appeared to be in sharp contrast to rational choice models, this study asks how has the BBE idea come to the policy agenda and at the particular timing of 2007? Kingdon’s model provides a useful analytical tool to identify structures in system anarchy and explains how policy change occurs in a seemingly haphazard policy process. Structured along the analytical framework of the policy window model, this study has assessed those critical factors in the ‘problems stream,’ the ‘policy stream,’ and the ‘political stream’ pertaining to the policy transition of our subject case; and identified the ‘policy entrepreneurs’ to be the governmental institute with agricultural portfolios, the knowledge institute specialized in biomass research, and the prominent chemical sector, who have packaged the BBE idea to be tackling the sustainability issues of biomass for non-food applications, and addressing the political need of the new coalition government for economic growth at the same time. As the three streams converged, a policy window thus was opened for the BBE. Kingdon’s model is found to be relevant and applicable in our case study, but as it focuses on the system level and also does not emphasize the role of the media in the policy process, complementary theories such as those on the subsystem level and media relations would add to the analytical strength in future applications of the model.
||TABLE OF CONTENT:
Abstract in English iii
Abstract in Chinese v
List of Figures and Tables xi
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xiii
I. INTRODUCTION 1
A. Motivation and Objectives 1
(A) From biofuels to biobased economy in the Netherlands 1
(B) Implications on sustainable policy-making and policy studies 4
(C) The research questions and objectives 5
B. Analytical Approach 6
C. Key Terminologies and Concepts 8
(A) What are transport biofuels? 8
(B) Sustainable development and the complexity of assessing sustainability 12
(C) Vision of a biobased economy 16
D. Literature Review 20
(A) Technological Innovation System 21
(B) Strategic Niche Management 25
(C) Media discourse analysis 27
(D) Q methodology 28
(E) Literature review: an evaluation 29
E. Scope and Structure of the Research 31
(A) Scope of the research 31
(B) Arrangement of the chapters and flow chart 32
II. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 35
A. Approaching the Complex World of Policy studies 35
(A) Simplifying the policy process 35
(B) Building on the past 36
(C) The making of better scientific theories 38
B. The Policy Cycle and the Policy Window Model 40
(A) The stages heuristic as a starting point 40
(B) Approaching the research question 45
C. The Analytical Dimensions of the Policy Window Model 49
(A) Focusing on agenda setting and policy formulation 49
(B) The theoretical assumption: a revised ‘garbage-can’ model 51
D. Other Applications of the Policy Window Model 55
III. THE EUROPEAN CALL FOR ENERGY TRANSITION 57
A. Climate Change, the Historic UNFCCC, and the Quest for Energy Transition 58
(A) Climate change and GHG emissions from transport fuels 58
(B) The historic UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol 62
B. Biomass as a ‘Horn of Abundance’: Biofuels for Transport 68
(A) Advantages of biofuels for the transport sector 68
(B) Biofuels technology and advancements 69
(C) Classifications of biofuels: 1G, 2G, 3G, and sustainability 72
(D) Future prospects of transport biofuels 74
C. The EU’s Green Determination and Biofuels Regime 76
(A) The EU’s green determination 76
(B) GHG emissions by EU transport sector 77
(C) EU transport biofuels policy and major developments 80
(D) Current status in EU-27 and the Netherlands 85
IV. THE NETHERLANDS BIOFUELS POLICY 91
A. Motivations for a National Biofuels Regime 91
(A) The need for a more sustainable mobility system 93
(B) Economic benefits 97
(C) Import dependency 98
B. Policy Overview 99
(A) Competent authorities 99
(B) Policy Instruments 100
(C) National Biofuels Targets and Growth Path 106
C. Present Situation, Consumption and Production 108
(A) Technology Mix and Trajectory Toward 2020 108
(B) Production and Consumption 111
D. Energy Transition of Other Sectors toward 'Biobased’ 113
(A) Energy Transition program 113
(B) Vision of a Biobased Economy for Energy Transition 115
V. THE PROBLEM STREAMS 117
A. Consequences of the Dutch Biofuels Policy 118
(A) Reduction of GHG emissions 118
(B) Sustainable biofuels? Unanticipated consequences surfaced 119
B. Policy Problems: Theories & Empirical Discussions 126
(A) What are policy problems? 126
(B) How problems come to attention? 128
(C) Problem definitions and types of problem 131
VI. THE POLICY STREAM 135
A. The ‘Primeval Soup’ and Policy Alternatives 135
B. The Dutch Biofuels Policy Community 136
(A) The biofuels sector and their involvements in policy-making 136
(B) The biofuels policy community 140
(C) Fragmentation of the policy community 142
C. Ideas for Tackling the Problems with Biofuels 143
(A) Sustainability standards 145
(B) Techno-Innovation push 146
D. Policy Entrepreneurs and the Biobased Economy 148
(A) Policy entrepreneurs and consensus building by ‘softening up’ 148
(B) Policy entrepreneurs for the BBE 149
(C) ‘Softening up’ for the BBE 150
VII. THE POLITICAL STREAM 151
A. Elements of the Political Stream 151
B. Political Factors Affecting the Biofuels Policy System 153
(A) The public mood for biofuels 153
(B) Political environment and organized political pressure 155
(C) Change of administration: Balkenende IV coalition government 157
VIII. THE POLICY WINDOW 163
A. Coupling of the Streams for A Window of Opportunity 163
B. Joining the Streams: From Biofuels to Biobased Economy 164
C. Biobased Economy: the Policy Agenda 169
D. Current Situation 173
IX. CONCLUSIONS & FINDINGS 177
A. Summary of the Study & Main Findings 177
B. Merits and Limitation of the Policy Window Model 179
C. Recommendation for Future Research 183
LIST OF FIGURES:
Figure 1 Bioenergy routes, 10
Figure 2 Non-food application of biomass, 17
Figure 3 Closing the Chain in a Biobased Economy, 18
Figure 4 Biorefinery for the valorization of biomass for food, fuels, chemicals and materials, 19
Figure 5 Structure of the research: a flow chart, 34
Figure 6 Conceptualizing the policy window model, 54
Figure 7 Global GHG emissions between 1970 and 2004, 59
Figure 8 Share of harmful GHGs in overall GHG concentration, 1950-2010, 60
Figure 9 Change of Global Surface Temperature from 1880-2010, 60
Figure 10 GHG Emissions by transport mode in EU-15, 2004, 78
Figure 11 GHG Emissions by sector in EU-27, 2009, 79
Figure 12 EU Member States market share of biofuels in transport fuel consumption, 2010, 86
Figure 13 Dedicated energy crops in EU, 2008, 90
Figure 14 CO2 Emissions by Sector in The Netherlands, 2007, 92
Figure 15 Share of CO2 emissions by transport modes, 2010 estimated, 93
Figure 16 Tax levels (€/litre) for fuels and biofuels in the Netherlands, 102
Figure 17 The flow from reporting to monitoring of biofuels obligation, 104
Figure 18 Growth and share of biofuel in the Netherlands toward 2020, by energy types, 111
Figure 19 Development of GHG emissions until 2009 with base year 1990, 119
Figure 20 Life-Cycle GHG Balance of Different Conventional and Advanced Biofuels, 122
Figure 21 FAO Food Price Index, 1990 to present (May 2013), 124
Figure 22 Dynamics of expectation patterns for biofuels, 154
Figure 23 Potentially feasible emission reduction for transport, by 2050, 160
Figure 24 Illustration of the development of the Dutch biofuels policy transition toward a BBE, 169
LIST OF TABLES:
Table 1 The policy cycle and its relation to problem-solving, 43
Table 2 Products considered as biofuels according to the European legislation, 72
Table 3 EU Member States market share of biofuels in transport fuel consumption, 2001-2010, 87
Table 4 Dutch biofuels targets, 2007-2020, 108
Table 5 Trajectories of all renewable energies in the Netherlands, 2005-2010, 110
Table 6 Renewable energy technology mix and trajectory of the Dutch transport sector, 2005-2020, 110
Table 7 Production of biodiesel and bioethanol in the Netherlands, 2005-2012, 112
Table 8 Major biofuel feedstocks and their relative share in the Dutch biofuels consumption, 2011, 113
Table 9 Problem stream of the Dutch biofuels policy, 134
Table 10 The Dutch biofuels policy community, 141
Table 11 Political stream of the Dutch biofuels policy, 161
Table 12 Critical elements in the three streams and the policy window for the biobased economy, 168
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DISSERTATIONS AND CONFERENCE PAPER
Becker, A. (2011), “Impacts of European Biofuel Policies on Global Biofuel and Agricultural Markets,” PhD dissertation, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn.
Pinkse, J. (2006), “Business Responses to Global Climate Change,” PhD dissertation, University of Amsterdam.
Mercier, J. (2011), “Are Current Agrofuels a Valid Tool to Tackle Climate Change? An Assessment of French and British 'Biofuel' Policies,” Ph.D. dissertation, Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine.
Hekkert, M. P. and Suurs, R. A.A. (2006), “Patterns of Cumulative Causation in the Formation of a Technological Innovation System: The case of Biofuels in the Netherlands,” Conference paper for DRUID Winter Conference of January 2007: http://www2.druid.dk/conferences/papers.php?cf=10. Retrieved February 25, 2013.
NEWS AND MAGAZINES
Carrington, D. (2011, October 30), “UK Firm's Failed Biofuel Dream Wrecks Lives of Tanzania Villagers,” The Guardian / The Observer: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/oct/30/africa-poor-west-biofuel-betrayal. Retrieved April 19, 2013.
Kent, S. and Scheck, J. (2013, May 15), “North America Oil to Lead Supply Gains,” The Wall Street Journal, pp. 12.
International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development (2008, May), “Biofuels and Sustainability: Is Certification the Answer?” Bridges Trade BioRes Review, pp. 9-10.
(2010, September) “Airlines: 1% biofuel by 2015,” Biofuels International, Issue 7, Vol. 4, pp. 14.
EEA (2006), “Transport Emissions of Greenhouse Gases by Mode,” European Environmental Agency: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/transport-emissions-of-greenhouse-gases-6/term_2006_02___transport_emission_of_greenhouse_gases_final_version.pdf. Retrieved April 19, 2013.
European Commission (2009), “SPEECH/09/122, 'US and EU leadership for Copenhagen,' delivered by Environment Commissioner, Stavros Dimas on 16 March 2009, Washington D.C.” European Commission: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-09-122_en.htm. Retrieved May 17, 2009.
European Commission (2008), “SPEECH/08/79, ‘Europe Leading the Global Combat Against Climate Change,’ delivered by Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn on 14 February 2008, Helsinki,” European Commission: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-08-79_en.pdf. Retrieved May 17, 2009.
Eurostat (2006), “Transport Energy Consumption and Emissions,” European Commission: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Transport_energy_consumption_and_emissions. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
Van Cleef, Ben (2007), “Dutch economy: 2006 ends on a high note,” Statistics Netherlands: http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/dossiers/conjunctuur/publicaties/artikelen/archief/2007/2007-2118-wm.htm. Retrieved June 2, 2013.
“About Bioenergy,” European Biomass Association: http://www.aebiom.org/?cat=55. Retrieved April 12, 2013.
“About Natural Capital,” UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs: http://www.defra.gov.uk/naturalcapitalcommittee/natural-capital/what-is-natural-capital/. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
“Advanced Biofuels Project Database (release 1.82),” Biofuels Digest: http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/. Retrieved April 16, 2013.
“Annual Report 2011: The State of the World's Human Rights – Brazil,” Amnesty International: http://www.amnesty.org/en/region/brazil/report-2011#section-18-7. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
“Background on the UNFCCC: The International Response to Climate Change,” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/items/6031.php. Retrieved April 15, 2013.
“Biofuels - Land Use Change,” DG Energy, European Commission: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/biofuels/land_use_change_en.htm. Retrieved May 6, 2013.
“Biofuels - Sustainability Schemes,” DG Energy, European Commission: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/biofuels/sustainability_schemes_en.htm. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
“Biofuels Barometer 2012,” EurObserv'ER: http://www.eurobserv-er.org/downloads.asp. Retrieved May 3, 2013.
“Cicero (106-43 BCE),” Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy, University of Tennessee at Martin: http://www.iep.utm.edu/cicero/#SH7b. Retrieved May 15, 2013.
“Contribution of the Different GHGs to the Overall Greenhouse Gas Concentration in 1950, 1990 and 2010,” European Environmental Agency: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/contribution-of-the-different-ghgs-1. Retrieved April 15, 2013.
“Facts and figures about the Dutch chemical industry in 2010,” Association of the Dutch Chemical Industry: http://www.vnci.nl/feiten/chemie-in-nederland/chemistry-in-the-netherlands.aspx. Retrieved June 20, 2013.
“First Steps to A Safer Future: Introducing The UNFCCC,” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: http://unfccc.int/essential_background/items/6036.php. Retrieved April 15, 2013.
“Food Not Fuel,” Action Aid: http://www.actionaid.org.uk/102268/food_not_fuel.html. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
“Food Not Fuel: Agrofuels, Food Prices and Hunger,” Friends of the Earth: http://www.foei.org/en/resources/publications/pdfs/2012/food-not-fuel-agrofuels-food-prices-and-hunger-1/view. Retrieved April 19, 2013.
“Global Climate Change Key Indicators,” US National Aeronautics and Space Administration: http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators. Retrieved April 15, 2013.
“Issues - Agriculture and Poverty,” Oxfam International: http://www.oxfam.org/en/node/2037. Retrieved May 3, 2013.
“Kyoto Protocol,” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/3145.php. Retrieved April 13, 2013.
“Our Common Future: Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development,” UN Documents: http://www.un-documents.net/wced-ocf.htm. Retrieved March 29, 2013.
“Production Data of Fuel Ethanol,” European Renewable Ethanol Association: http://www.epure.org/statistics/production-data. Retrieved May 5, 2013.
“Statistics of the EU Biodiesel Industry,” European Biodiesel Board: http://www.ebb-eu.org/stats.php#. Retrieved May 5, 2013.
“Sustainability Reporting,” Royal Dutch Shell PCL: http://www.shell.com/global/environment-society/reporting.html. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
“The Presidents,” The White House: http://www.whitehouse.gov/about/presidents. Retrieved May 9, 2013.
“What are advanced biofuels?” European Biofuels Technology Platform: http://www.biofuelstp.eu/advancedbiofuels.htm#whatare. Retrieved April 16, 2013.
“Transport, Oil and Biofuels,” Greenpeace EU Unit: http://www.greenpeace.org/eu-unit/en/campaigns/Climate/Transport-oil-and-biofuels/. Retrieved May 3, 2013.
EU OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS
COM (2012) 60 final, Innovating for Sustainable Growth: A Bioeconomy for Europe.
COM (2009) 39 final, Towards a Comprehensive Climate Change Agreement in Copenhagen.
COM (2007) 723 final, A European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-PLAN): ‘Towards a Low Carbon Future.’
COM (2005) 628 final, Biomass Action Plan.
COM (2000) 769 final, Green Paper: Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply.
Directive 2009/29/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC.
Directive 2003/30/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 8 May 2003 on the promotion of the use of biofuels and other renewable fuels for transport.
NETHERLANDS OFFICIAL DOCUMENTS
Ministry of EZ (2010), National Renewable Energy Action Plan Directive 2009/28/EC, The Hague: Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Ministry of LNV (2007), Government Vision on the Biobased Economy for Energy Transition: 'Closing the Chain,' The Hague: Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality.
Ministry of VROM (2007), New Energy for Climate Policy: The 'Clean and Efficient' Programme, The Hague: Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment .
Ministry of VROM (2005), Traffic Emissions Policy Document, The Hague: Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment.
“Double Counting of Biofuels,” NL Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs: http://www.agentschapnl.nl/en/programmas-regelingen/double-counting-biofuels. Retrieved March 10, 2013.
“Dutch Biofuels Policy 2006-2010,” NL Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs: http://www.agentschapnl.nl/en/programmas-regelingen/dutch-biofuels-policy-2006-2010. Retrieved March 9, 2013.
“Sustainability of Biofuels,” NL Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs: http://www.agentschapnl.nl/en/programmas-regelingen/sustainability-biofuels. Retrieved March 10, 2013.
Agricultural Economic Institute, Wageningen University & Research (2013, March 22), personal interview with a researcher of biofuels policy and a researcher of biobased economy.
Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality (2011, October 13), personal interview with a senior policy advisor on biobased economy.
NL Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs (2013, March 8), personal interview with two senior policy advisors of the Division NL Energy and Climate.
Product Board for Margarine, Fats and Oils (2013, May 7), personal interview with an expert on sustainable production & biobased economy.
Tebodin Netherlands BV (2011, November 16), personal interview with a senior energy engineer.
Commissie Duurzame Ontwikkeling (2010), Meer Chemie Tussen Groen en Groei: De Kansen en Dilemma's van een Biobased Economy, Den Haag: Sociaal-Economische Raad.
Duurzame Productie van Biomassa (2006), Criteria voor Duurzame Biomassa Productie, Task Force Energietransitie.
Platform Groene Grondstoffen (2007), Groeneboek Energietransitie, Sittard: Senter Novem.
RIVM (2001), Bouwstenen voor het NMP4: Aanvulling op de Nationale Milieuverkenning 5, Bilthoven: Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Mileiu.
“Het Verborgen Klimaateffect van Biobrandstoffen,” Netherlands Society for Nature and Environment: http://www.natuurenmilieu.nl/themas/energie/groene-biobrandstof/. Retrieved April 22, 2013.
“Over de NEa,” De Nederlandse Emissieautoriteit: https://www.emissieautoriteit.nl/emissiehandel/over-de-nea/de-nederlandse-emissieautoriteit. Retrieved March 11, 2013.
“Over Energietransitie.nl,” Agentschap NL, Ministerie van Economische Zaken: http://www.agentschapnl.nl/onderwerp/over-energietransitienl%20. Retrieved April 18, 2013.
“Pas op de Plaats met Biobrandstof,” Socialist Party: http://www.sp.nl/milieu/nieuwsberichten_per_categorie/58/klimaat.html. Retrieved May 3, 2013.
“Coalitieakkoord Tussen de Tweede Kamerfracties van CDA, PvdA en ChristenUnie (Februari 7, 2007),” Rijksoverheid: http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten-en-publicaties/rapporten/2007/02/07/coalitieakkoord-balkenende-iv.html. Retrieved June 5, 2013.
“Duurzame Energie en Energiebesparing - Verslag van een algemeen overleg (Maart 26, 2008)” Officiele bekendmakingen: https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/kst-29575-17.html. Retrieved April 30, 2013.
“Kabinetsaanpak Klimaatbeleid Op Weg Naar 2020 - Brief van de staatssecretaris van infrastructuur en milieu (Januari 14, 2013),” Officiele Bekendmakingen: https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/kst-32813-23.html?zoekcriteria=%3fzkt%3dEenvoudig%26pst%3d%26vrt%3dpercentages%2bconventionele%2bbiobrandstoffen%26zkd%3dInDeGeheleText%26dpr%3dAfgelopenDag%26spd%3d20130509%26epd%3d20130510%26sdt%3dDatumBrief%26ap%. Retrieved May 6, 2013.
“Vaststelling Subsidieprogramma CO2-reductie Innovatieve Biobrandstoffen voor Transport,” Staatscourant, No. 247, December 19, 2006.