從市場中觀察發現房價走勢高低會影響到投資人的購房意願以及與銀行借款量，而從2007年次級房貸危機可看出房地產市場對於金融市場的緊密連結，故本研究主要探討房價對銀行獲利受逾放比不同之變化影響，以2009年3月至2018年12月之季資料為研究期間，利用縱橫平滑移轉回歸模型架構，分別對金融控股公司的子銀行獲利與非金融控股公司的銀行等不同類型公司的獲利進行比較分析。
實證結果發現，房價與銀行獲利存在著非線性關係以及顯著的平滑移轉效果，當低於門檻值時，房價對銀行獲利呈現負相關，當高於門檻值時，房價對銀行獲利呈現正相關。此結果不因公司類型而有差異。

Observations from the market show that the trend of housing prices will affect investors' willingness to purchase in housing market and therefore the mortgages banks provide. The sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2007 points out the close connection between the real estate market and the financial market. This study mainly discusses the impact of housing prices on banks’ profitability with regard to different non-performing loans ratio, based on the quarterly data collected from 2009 to 2018. This study utilizes PSTR analysis to compare the effects on the subsidiary banks of Financial Holding Companies and non Financial Holding Banks respectively. Empirical results find a non-linear relationship between housing prices and banks’ profitability and a significant smooth transfer effect. A negative relation is found when the non-performing loans ratio is lower than a threshold and a positive one when the ratio is high, regardless of the types of the banks.

謝  辭.....I 
中文摘要	.....II
英文摘要.....III
目　錄 .....IV
表　目　錄.....VI
圖　目　錄.....VI
第一章	緒論.....1
第一節	研究背景與動機.....1
第二節	研究目的	.....3
第三節	研究架構與流程.....4
第二章	文獻回顧	.....6
第一節	房價與銀行獲利之關聯性.....6
第二節	逾期放款比率與銀行獲利之關聯性.....7
第三節	存放款利差與銀行獲利之關聯性.....7
第四節	資本適足率與銀行獲利之關聯性.....8
第五節	備抵呆帳覆蓋率與銀行獲利之關聯性......9
第三章	研究方法	......11
第一節	縱橫單根檢定.....11
第二節	縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型.....14
第三節	縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型之設定.....19
第四章	實證結果與分析.....23
第一節	研究樣本說明.....23
第二節	資料之敘述統計量.....26
第三節	縱橫單根檢定.....27
第四節	縱橫平滑移轉檢定.....31
第五章	結論與建議.....41
參考文獻.....44
表　目　錄
表4-1-1 金融控股公司銀行樣本...24
表4-1-2 非金融控股公司銀行樣本...24
表4-2-1 金融控股公司銀行變數之敘述統計量...27
表4-2-2 非金融控股公司銀行變數之敘述統計量	...27
表4-3-1 金融控股公司銀行變數之縱橫單根檢定	...28
表4-3-2 非金融控股公司銀行變數之縱橫單根檢定...29
表4-3-3 金融控股公司銀行變數之一次差分項縱橫單根檢定...30
表4-3-4 非金融控股公司銀行變數之一次差分項縱橫單根檢定...31
表4-4-1 逾放比對銀行獲利之同質性檢定...32
表4-4-2 空間向量的位置參數之檢測...33
表4-4-3逾放比對金融控股公司銀行獲利之區間個數檢定...34
表4-4-4逾放比對非金融控股公司銀行獲利之區間個數檢定...34
表4-4-5逾放比對金融控股公司銀行獲利之縱橫平滑移轉模型估計結果	...37
表4-4-6解釋變數在不同逾放比變動下對金融控股公司銀行獲利之影響	...38
表4-4-7逾放比對非金融控股公司銀行獲利之縱橫平滑移轉模型估計結果...40
表4-4-8解釋變數在不同逾放比變動下對非金融控股公司銀行獲利之影響...40

圖　目　錄
圖1-1-1 本國銀行不動產放款額占總放款額...2
圖1-3-1 研究流程圖...5
圖3-2-1 m=1之轉換模型...17
圖3-2-2 m=2之轉換模型...18

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