系統識別號 | U0002-0706201008493000 |
---|---|
DOI | 10.6846/TKU.2010.00192 |
論文名稱(中文) | 所得收斂假說再檢驗:以中國為例 |
論文名稱(英文) | Income Convergence of China revisited: Evidence from panel unit root test with breaks |
第三語言論文名稱 | |
校院名稱 | 淡江大學 |
系所名稱(中文) | 產業經濟學系碩士班 |
系所名稱(英文) | Department of Industrial Economics |
外國學位學校名稱 | |
外國學位學院名稱 | |
外國學位研究所名稱 | |
學年度 | 98 |
學期 | 2 |
出版年 | 99 |
研究生(中文) | 何宜霖 |
研究生(英文) | Yi-Lin Ho |
學號 | 697540028 |
學位類別 | 碩士 |
語言別 | 英文 |
第二語言別 | |
口試日期 | 2010-05-17 |
論文頁數 | 48頁 |
口試委員 |
指導教授
-
林俊宏
委員 - 楊志海 委員 - 林佩蒨 |
關鍵字(中) |
所得收歛 中國經濟發展 內生結構改變 |
關鍵字(英) |
Income Convergence panel unit root test Chinese Economic growth |
第三語言關鍵字 | |
學科別分類 | |
中文摘要 |
由1970年晚期所進行開放改革政策後,中國經濟情況快速發展。許多文獻探討這樣快速發展的背後,可能造成區域間與區域內所得不均的現象。本文主旨是使用Im et al. (2005)所建立的panel LM unit root test允許由內生決定結構改變,重新探討開放改革前後全中國所得收歛存在與否。並且使用過去沒有考慮內生結構改變的傳統研究方法做一個比較基礎。當考慮到內生結構改變與沒有考慮到內生結構改變之結果是為不同,此驗證Perron (1989)的建議,若沒有考慮到結構改變可能會造成原本穩定的序列視為不穩定。 估計結果除了認為中國各省與省之間是所得收歛外,並且指出內生結構改變應該發生的時間點。再者,此篇更是利用另一panel KPSS unit root test的虛無假設為stationarity,此與panel LM unit root test的虛無假設相反。以該假設來驗證實證結果,提供一個更有解釋力與可信賴的結果。其估計結果與最主要模型之結果為一致,顯示中國存在所得收歛。但此一結果與我們一般認知中國所得發散的想法背道而馳。然而這可能指出中國執行的西部開發政策減緩省與省之間所得差異問題。 |
英文摘要 |
Since China has rapid growth by the open-door economic reforms of the late 1970s, a number of studies have argued that this outstanding economic growth might cause the unbalanced development with and within regions. In this study, we re-investigate whether provincial-level incomes in China continue to diverge or converge by the newly developed panel LM unit root test, which allows for considering structural breaks endogenously. In order to make a comparison, we also implement conventional methodology without consideration of breaks. The results show that it provides different outcomes when we consider structural breaks endogenously corresponding to, as Perron (1989) suggested, the misleading results if there is no consideration of structural breaks. More importantly, the results suggest that the income convergence should exist among Chinese provinces and that the occurrence of break timing. Furthermore, we apply panel KPSS unit root test, which has an opposite null hypothesis to panel LM unit root test, to examine the main results for providing more powerful and robust test statistics, and the outcomes indicate the consistent results. The result of existence of convergence in China is quite different from the public views. However, this might indicates that the policy of West Development eliminates the difference among provinces. |
第三語言摘要 | |
論文目次 |
TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Brief Review of the Development of Chinese Economy 2 1.2 Research Objectives 7 Chapter 2. Literature Review 8 2.1 σ and β-convergence 8 2.2 Stochastic Convergence 10 2.3 Mix of β and stochastic convergence 11 2.4 Summary 12 Chapter 3. Methodology 13 3.1 Panel data series with structural breaks 15 3.2 Panel LM unit root test 17 3.3 Panel KPSS unit root test 18 Chapter 4. Data Description and Preliminary Analysis 21 4.1 Data 21 4.2 Preliminary Analysis 23 Chapter 5. Empirical Results 26 5.1 Conventional Panel Unit Root Tests 26 5.2 Panel LM unit root test with structural breaks 29 5.3 Robustness Checks 33 5.4 Summary 35 Chapter 6. Conclusions 39 Reference 42 Appendix 45 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Provincial Growth Performance 6 Table 2. Data Descriptive Statistics (real GDP per capita in logarithm) 22 Table 3. Conventional Panel Unit Root Test 28 Table 4. Panel LM Unit Root Test with Structural Breaks 32 Table 5. Robustness Checks 37 Table 6. Panel KPSS Unit Root Test with Structural Breaks 38 Table A1. Conventional Panel Unit Root Test 45 Table A2. Panel LM Unit Root Test with Structural Breaks 46 Table A3. Robustness Checks 47 Table A4. Panel KPSS Unit Root Test with Structural Breaks 48 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Average coastal vs. interior provincial incomes relative to the national mean 24 Figure 2. Roughly parallel growth paths of the poorest and wealthiest coastal provinces relative to average 24 Figure 3. Roughly parallel growth paths among the wealthiest and poorest interior provinces relative to average 25 |
參考文獻 |
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