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系統識別號 U0002-0704201417035200
中文論文名稱 孫子兵法對現今中國崛起之影響
英文論文名稱 A Study of China’s Rise From The Perspective of Sun-Tzu
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies
學年度 102
學期 1
出版年 103
研究生中文姓名 施志堅
研究生英文姓名 William John Schmidt
電子信箱 southernjameson.west@gmail.com
學號 600330350
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2014-01-16
論文頁數 126頁
口試委員 指導教授-施正權
委員-翁明賢
委員-劉廣華
中文關鍵字 孫子兵法  美國圈禁政策  因應中國崛起  重演文化大革命 
英文關鍵字 The current rise of China  Sun-Tzu’s theory of strategy  U.S. China Relations  The changes to come in World Power Politics  The present state in the logical analysis of Political Science  Entropy 
學科別分類 學科別社會科學政治學
學科別社會科學區域研究
中文摘要 由於2012年美國已改變其對亞洲之政策,給予中國極高度之壓力,致中國認為遭美國圈禁於太平洋以西,無法伸展手腳及遠大抱負,因此中國政府近年來不斷給予台灣政府壓力,使其所謂「大中國圈內之中國人民」無法抵抗北京政府,而以經濟支持政治之目的,藉由經濟施壓,表面上大力幫助台灣進入大陸發展各種職業,實質上迫使台灣簽訂各項協議、合約,或利用其他各種不同方式,企圖壓制台灣、強制台灣實際上與中國站在同一陣線,合作抵抗歐美各國之欺壓。
本研究嘗試論證:對近年來中國北京政府之政策與孫子兵法間存有直接關聯,即中國政府採用孫子兵法,意圖將其自認之大中國圈內兩岸三地所有成員(包括中國、香港、台灣)團結、結合起來,以共同抗禦美國及其友邦陰謀。並進一步顯示,如台灣無法從中國計畫中脫身,而被迫或主動投入中國懷抱中,將會重演文化大革命之歷史。
英文摘要 An analysis of the current Rise of China is attempted using the analysis of Sun Tzu’s theory as given in his book “The Art of War”. Certain points are high-lighted in order to make some specific predictions about how China as a state will handle its condition of being
encircled and its upcoming and soon-to-be confrontation with the United States of America,
specifically the issue of Taiwan.
“We shouldn’t be afraid of atomic bombs and missiles. No matter what kind of war breaks out-conventional or thermonuclear-we’ll win. As for China, if the imperialists unleash war on us, we may lose more than three hundred million people. So what? War is war. The years will pass, and we’ll get to work producing more babies than ever before.”

Khruschev:“Stalin loved to show off his hospitality to his esteemed guests, and he knew how to do it very well. But during Mao’s stay, Stalin would sometimes not lay eyes on him for days at a time—and since Stalin neither saw Mao nor ordered anyone else to entertain him, no one dared go see him…..Mao let it be known that if the situation continued, he would leave. When Stalin heard about Mao’s complaints, I think he had another dinner for him.”
論文目次 Table of Contents

Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………...……..…………….1
I Research Objectives: Motivation and Purpose of This Study……………………………….4
II Literature Review………………………………………………………………………………………………5
III Methodology……………………………………………………………………………………………………6
IV Research Scope: Scope and Limitations……………………………………………………………7

V Conceptual Framework: Sun-Tzu…. Reductionism versus Systemics and Neo-Realism..……………………………………………………………………………………………………7
VI Working Hypothesis: The Basic Assumptions at Work-Postulates of Neo-Realisms
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….8
VII Chapter Organization Arrangement………………………………………………………………..9
VIII Criticisms of The Analysis……………………………………………………………………………….11
Chapter One: China Lies in Encircled Ground…………………………………………..….………….12
I China’s “National Security Objectives”……………………………………………..………………..15
II Empirical Facts: China’s Current Military Strength in China’s Nearby vicinities…..15
III Empirical Facts About China’s Target Defense Acquisitions “Shopping List” for Taiwan contingencies…………………………………………………………………….…………………16
Chapter Two: China Must Preserve Its State…………………………………………..….……………25
I Military Hardware Equals Sovereignty………………………………………………………………25
II China’s Policy of Access Denial Toward The United States Anarchy and Self-help in Neo-realism……………………………………………………………………………..………………….27
III The U.S.’s Air-Sea Battle Strategy…………………………………………………………………….31
Chapter Three: The Resulting Action: China “Closes The Gap”-Takes Back Taiwan…. 34
I “In focal ground, ally with neighboring states”…………………………………………………35
II Further Evidence Which Implies Taiwan’s Fate…………………………………………………37
Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………………..………..……………43
Bibliography………………………………………………………………………….………..…….………………..50
Appendix I : “Strategy and Neo-Realism” ………………………….………..………………………….55
Appendix II: Notes on Sun Tzu…………………………………………………………………………………73
參考文獻 Books:
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Research Papers:

1) Christensen, Thomas. “The Advantages of An Assertive China”, Foreign Affairs 90, No. 2 ( March-April 2011).
2) Christensen, Thomas J. “The Contemporary Security Dilemma: Deterring a Taiwan Conflict”, Center for Strategic and International Studies and The Massachusetts Institute of Technology
3) Christensen, Thomas J. “Windows and War: Trend Analysis and Beijing’s use of Force.” In New Directions in the Study of China’s Foreign Policy, edited by Alistair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, pp.50-85.Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2006.
4) Deng, Yong. “Reputation and The Security Dilemma: China Reacts to the China Threat Theory.” In New Directions in the Study of China’s Foreign Policy, edited by Alistair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, pp.186-214. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2006.
5) Jaynes, E.T., “Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics”, Physical Review, Vol. 106, No. 4, (May 1957) .
6) Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky (1979 ) “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decisions Under Risk”, Econometrica 47.
7) Kurlantzick, Joshua. “Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power is Transforming the World.” Foreign Policy Research Institute Summer Issue. (2007):pp.1-4.
8) Lin Chong-Pin. “More Carrot Than Stick:Beijing’s Emerging Taiwan Policy.”World Security InstituteVol.4,No.1.(2008):pp.3-29.
9) O’Rourke, Ronald. China’s Naval Modernization. Congressional Research Service Report R133153, Washington, DC: Library of Congress, April 2011.
10) Panetta, Leon. “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities For 21st Century Defense” (“Re-pivoting in Asia”), Department of Defense, January 2012.
11) Luttwak, Edward N., “Give War a Chance”, Foreign Affairs; Jul/Aug 1999; 78, 4; ABI/INFORM Global
12) Mearsheimer, John J. “The Gathering Storm: China’s Challenge to U.S. Power in Asia, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, Vol. 3, 2010.
13) Mearsheimer, John. J. “Say good Bye to Taiwan,” The National Interest, Vol.1, March-April.(2014):pp.1-6.
14) U.S. Department of Defense,” Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”, Department of Defense,2010.


Recent News Headlines:


1) Cody, Edward J. “Taiwan Voters Elect New President,”The Washington Post, March 23,2008,Evening Edition, Foreign Service.
2)Editor. ”China’s Defense Budget.” Global Security, March5,2014, www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/budget.htm.
3)Evans, Sophie J.”China Employs Two Million to keep an eye on Internet use by its Citizens,”The daily Mail Online,Oct.6, 2013, www.dailymail.co.uk/news.
4)Korba, Mark. “U.S. Military Spending Dwarfs Rest of The World.” NBC News, Feb.24,2014, www.nbcnews/2014/02/24/storyline/military-spendingcuts/u-s-military-spending-d .
5) Sharma, Ruchir, “China’s Illusory Growth Numbers”, The Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2013, Opinions.
6)Hill, David J.”1 Million Robots to Replace 1 Million Human Jobs at Foxconn?”Singularity University,Nov.12,2012, www.singularity.com.
7)Williamson, Lucy. ”China’s Philippine aid controversy” BBC News, November 13, 2013, Asia.

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