臺灣人口老化速度恐為世界第一，預估於2018年老人人口比率即達到14%，進入「高齡社會」，2025年達到20%，進入「超高齡社會」。因應此一趨勢，政府陸續制定並推出相關長照政策，國人為彌補其不足自行購買商業保險以填補保障缺口。近年來長期照護保險市場蓬勃發展，然而卻存在許多長期照護保單脫退（停效、解約或失效）的情況，此除影響保單持有人權益外，大量之保單脫退亦將造成保險公司現金流風險，進而影響壽險業之經營安全。本研究藉由近20年來不同時期推出之長期照護保單，利用羅吉斯迴歸分析被保險人特性、產品因素及行銷因素(含行銷通路與業務員特性)以期了解影響保單脫退之關鍵因素，實證結果顯示，在被保險人特性：性別、年齡、居住區域、職業類別與保單脫退率具顯著關聯性。如年輕保戶相較於年長者有較高脫退率、非都會區相較都會地區有較高脫退率。在產品因素：繳費方式、繳法別、有無保單貸款、商品保障內容與保單脫退率具顯著關聯性。如派員收費相較於銀行轉帳繳費有較高脫退率、採取季繳繳費之脫退率高於月繳件。在行銷因素(行銷通路與業務員特性)：行銷通路、業務員性別、教育程度、年齡與保單脫退率具顯著關聯性。如行銷通路採銀行保代相較於保險公司直屬業務員有較高脫退率、業務員教育程度較高者其保單脫退機率較低。冀透過本研究結果提供保險公司參卓，以利商品規劃並制定相關管理預警機制。

Taiwan is facing the acute problem of aging population, the result of a low fertility rate and a longer life span that make the aging population ratio to figure 14% approximately in 2018 on course getting into the “aging society” and reach to 20% in 2025 and to an “aged society”. For coping with the trend, the Government has developed relevant social policies gradually but it seemed still insufficient so that many people make up their comprehensive security by self-purchasing commercial insurance to fill the gap.
The long-term care insurance market is booming in recent years but did facing the problems of policy lapse (surrender, terminated or invalidated), it is not only affecting the rights of policyholders but also causing a large number of policy lapse. The most importantly is to bring about the risk of cash flow and the operation for insurance company. This paper is utilized the information of long-term care policies in different period for the past 20 years and analyzes the characteristics of the insured, product and marketing factors (including marketing channels and the characteristics of salesman) by using Logistic Regression for better understanding the determinants of policy lapse.
The empirical results show as follows. Insured characteristic such as gender, age, living area, occupational category have significant bound up with lapse rate. For example, younger policyholder has a higher lapse rate compare with elderly policyholder, non-city areas is higher than the urban. Product factors such as payment method, with/without policy loans, and insurance coverage are significantly related to lapse rate. For example, dispatched charges a higher lapse rate compared with the bank transfer payment, and quarterly payment is higher than monthly payment. Marketing factors (marketing channels and characteristics of saleman) such as marketing channels, sales gender, education, and age are significantly related to lapses rate. For exmaple, the marketing channel of bancinsurance agent has a higher policy lapse rate compare with direct sales of insurance company. The higher level of education has a lower rate of policy lapses. Expecting the results of this study can provide reference to insurance company for facilitating products line development and establishing early warning mechanism.

目 錄	
第一章　緒 論	1
第一節　研究背景與動機	1
第二節　研究目的與研究問題	6
第三節　研究範圍與限制	11
第四節　研究內容與流程	12
第二章　相關法令與文獻探討	14
第一節　保險契約停效及終止之法令規範	14
第二節　被保險人特性對保單脫退之影響	20
第三節　產品因素對保單脫退之影響	24
第三章　研究假說與方法	29
第一節　研究假說	29
第二節　研究方法	34
第四章　研究結果與分析	43
第一節　研究樣本統計分析	43
第二節　迴歸分析	95
第三節　平均數檢定	111
第五章　結論與建議	129
第一節　結論	129
第二節　建議	133
參考文獻	135
附 　錄	141
附錄(一)我國法令對停效之規範	141 

圖目錄
圖1-1　歷年戶籍登記人口年齡結構	8
圖1-2　研究流程圖	13

表目錄
表1-1　2015年世界各國保險滲透度前20名排行表	2
表1-2　最近五年壽險業個人險新契約件數	3
表1-3　最近五年壽險業個人險有效契約件數	3
表1-4　戶籍登記人口數按年齡分	7
表1-5　區域別戶籍登記人口數	9
表2-1　我國學者對停效之定義	16
表2-2　人身保險業保單繼續率統計表	26
表3-1　樣本資料說明表	35
表3-2　樣本資料商品比較表	35
表3-3　被保險人特性之研究變數	40
表3-4　產品因素之研究變數	41
表3-5　行銷因素(行銷通路與業務員特性)之研究變數	42
表4-1　長期照護保險全部商品之各變數基本統計量	43
表4-2　長期照護保險A商品之各變數基本統計量	47
表4-3　長期照護保險B商品之各變數基本統計量	52
表4-4　長期照護保險C商品之各變數基本統計量	56
表4-5　長期照護保險D商品之各變數基本統計量	61
表4-6　長期照護保險E商品之各變數基本統計量	65
表4-7　長期照護保險F商品之各變數基本統計量	69
表4-8　長期照護保險之保單脫退與否之各變數基本統計量	76
表4-9　長期照護保險之保單停效與否之各變數基本統計量	81
表4-10　長期照護保險之保單解約與否之各變數基本統計量	86
表4-11　長期照護保險之保單失效與否之各變數基本統計量	90
表4-12　全部長期照護保險羅吉斯迴歸分析	102
表4-13　五種商品之羅吉斯迴歸分析	108
表4-14　長期照護保單脫退與否之平均數檢定	113
表4-15　長期照護保單停效與否之平均數檢定	118
表4-16　長期照護保單解約與否之平均數檢定	122
表4-17　長期照護保單失效與否之平均數檢定	126
表5-1　研究假說之實證結果	130
表5-2　影響長期照護之保單脫退因素實證結果整理表	131

一、中文書籍
1.江朝國，1997年3月，論保險法116條之缺失及相關問題之探討，保險法論文集(二)，瑞興圖書，頁61。
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3.林勳發，1994年修訂再版，保險法論著譯作選集，譯著者自版。
4.林勳發，1996年3月，保險契約效力論，頁197。
5.鄭玉波著，劉宗榮修訂，2006年修訂六版，保險法論，頁81。

二、中文文獻
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5.李雅琪，2014年，「壽險業服務品質、顧客滿意度與顧客忠誠度之關連性研究，淡江大學保險學系保險經營碩士在職專班碩士論文。
6.沈小琪，1998年，「市場利率與保單失效解約率關係之研究」，逢甲大學統計與精算研究所碩士論文。
7.林淑真，2007年，「保單復效之逆選擇的防範與因應」，淡江大學保險學系保險經營碩士在職專班碩士論文。
8.彭文慧，2011年，「脫退模型之建構與應用—台灣壽險資料」，國立政治大學風險管理與保險研究所碩士學位論文。
9.曾韻潔，2015年，「人壽保險契約停效與復效制度之研究」，銘傳大學法律學系碩士班碩士論文。
10.楊芳純，2015年，「影響人壽保險保單失效因素之探討」，淡江大學保險學系保險經營碩士在職專班碩士論文。
11.蔡雄繼，1978年，「人壽保險保單停效之研究」，逢甲大學保險學研究所碩士論文。

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四、研究計劃
1.卓俊雄、洪秀芬、林恩瑋、石佳立，保險公司催告方式之研究，保險業務發展基金管理委員會99年度委託研究計畫。

五、網站資料
1.財團法人保險事業發展中心，http://www.tii.org.tw/opencms/information/information1/000001.html，最終瀏覽日期：2017/1/30。
2.金融監督管理委員會保險局，http://data.gov.tw/node/22382，
最終瀏覽日期：2017/1/30。
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最終瀏覽日期：2017/1/30。
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https://zh.wikisource.org/wiki/%E4%BF%9D%E9%9A%AA%E6%B3%95_(%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B18%E5%B9%B4)，最終瀏覽日期：2016/12/7。
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8.104年3月1日起「台灣地區傷害保險個人職業分類彙總表」，https://www.skl.com.tw/sklife.../104年3月起職業分類表.xls，
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