本研究採用時間序列分析法，分析日本財政政策與二氧化碳之間的長期均衡與短期動態關係，日本至1990年後為了刺激經濟成長，則多次採取擴張性財政政策以舒緩經濟困境，本文為瞭解日本之財政政策與二氧化碳排放量之間關係，並驗證財政政策是否會影響二氧化碳排放。研究樣本為1980至2016年，共37年之時間序列資料，以實證方法分析二氧化碳排放量、政府支出、私人消費、私人非住宅投資以及實質GDP之關係。
本文先以ADF、KPSS單根檢定來確認所有變數皆為I(1)之定態時間序列，接續以Johansen跡檢定估計法與最大概似估計法找出一組共整合向量關係，即代表變數間具有長期的均衡關係，並進一步利用向量誤差修正模型、衝擊反應函數分析變數間短期修正調整過程，透過以上計量研究方法來檢驗變數之間關連性。茲將主要研究結果摘要於下:
1.	日本財政政策是否會影響二氧化碳排放量?此兩種變數之間存在著長期的負向關係，當政府支出的增加將有助於二氧化碳排放量的減少，在短期動態調整過程發現到，當政府支出增加越多時，對二氧化碳的排放量也會得到顯著的減少效果。
2.	私人消費及私人非住宅投資對二氧化碳排放量有顯著的長期正向關係，私人消費有助於二氧化碳排放量增加，每增加一單位的私人消費都會有二氧化碳的產生，而私人非住宅投資有助於二氧化碳排放量增加，推測其原因有可能是私人部門投資於汙染較重之產業別，而非綠色能源或低汙染之產業。
3.	實質GDP對二氧化碳排放量的影響效果，呈現顯著的長期負向關係。實質GDP增加時將有助於二氧化碳排放量的減少，從1995年到2015年，可以明顯的發現到日本產業結構有所改變，因此實質GDP對二氧化碳排放量的影響效果，呈現長期負向影響。

After 1990, Japan has adopted expansionary fiscal policy to alleviate economic difficulties and stimulated economic growth. This paper takes Japan’s data from 1980 to 2016 for a total of 37 years to understand whether fiscal policy will affect CO2 emissions. I empirically analyze the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationships among CO2 emissions, government expenditure, private consumption, private non-residential investment, and real GDP.
In this paper, ADF unit root test and KPSS unit root test are first used to confirm that all variables are stationary of I(1). Then, Johansen co-integration test about trace test and maximum eigenvalue test are used to find a set of co-integration vector relations. The results showed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between them. VECM model and impulse response function are further used to analyze the short-term correction adjustment process between variables. The main findings are summarized as follows:
1. There is a long-term negative relationship between Japan’s fiscal policy and CO2 emissions. When government expenditure increases, it will reduce CO2 emissions. In the short-term dynamic adjustment process, it is found that when government expenditure increases, CO2 emissions will also be significantly reduced. This is presumably due to the government's increased investment in environmental quality.  Therefore, government expenditure increases will reduce CO2 emissions.
2. Private consumption and private non-residential investment have a significant long-term positive relationship with CO2 emissions. Because the private sector invested in heavily polluting industries rather than green energy or low-pollution industries, increased private non-residential investment and consumption will increase CO2 emissions.
3. The effect of real GDP on CO2 emissions presents a significant long-term negative relationship. From 1995 to 2015, it can be found that the industrial structure of Japan has changed (the industrial part of GDP has decreased from 34.65% to 29.143%).The influence effect of real GDP to CO2 emissions demonstrate negative effect in long term.

目錄
第一章 緒論	1
第一節 研究背景與目的	1
第二節 研究架構	3
第二章 文獻回顧	5
第一節 空氣汙染物與財政政策之關連性研究	5
第二節 二氧化碳排放量與EKC假說驗證	8
第三章 資料處理	11
第一節 變數定義與處理	11
第二節 時間序列資料圖	12
第四章 研究方法	16
第一節 單根檢定	17
第二節 最適落後期數選定	17
第三節 向量自我迴歸模型	18
第四節 共整合關係	19
第五節 向量誤差修正模型	20
第六節 衝擊反應函數	21
第五章 實證結果分析	22
第一節 單根檢定之結果	22
第二節 最適落後期數之選定	24
第三節 共整合檢定之結果	25
第四節 向量誤差修正模型	26
第五節 衝擊反應函數結果	30
第六章 結論與建議	36
第一節 研究結論	36
第二節 後續研究與建議	38
參考文獻	39
附錄	44

圖目錄
圖1-1 本論文架圖　　　　4
圖3-1 二氧化碳排放量之時間趨勢	13
圖3-2 政府支出之時間趨勢	13
圖3-3 私人消費之時間趨勢	14
圖3-4 實質GDP之時間趨勢	14
圖3-5 私人非住宅投資之時間趨勢	15
圖6-1衝擊反應函數結果	　35

表目錄
表3-1資料來源表　　12
表3-2相關變數敘述統計表	　15
表5-1 ADF單根檢定結果	　23
表5-2 KPSS單根檢定結果	　23
表5-3 最適落後期數檢定結果	　24
表5-4 跡檢定結果	　　　　25
表5-5 最大特性根檢定結果	　　26
表5-6 一組標準化之共整合向量結果表	　　　27
表5-7 誤差修正模型估計結果	　　29

參考文獻
中文
李榮謙（2010），「日本失落十年的經驗與啟示」，中央銀行季刊，第三十二卷第二期，47-64。
王淑美、胡均立、謝承憲（2010），「探討台灣地區移動污染源與空氣品質之環境顧志耐曲線」，農業與資源經濟，第七卷第一期，55-72。
陳旭昇（2013），時間序列分析－總體經濟與財務金融之應用（修訂版），東華出版。
楊奕農（2017），時間序列分析：經濟與財務上之應用（三版），雙葉書廊。
英文
Andreoni, J. and A. Levinson (2001), The Simple Analytics of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, Journal of Public Economics, 80, 269–286.
Annicchiarico B., and D. D. Fabio (2015), Environmental Policy and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 69, 1-21.
Behnaz, S., J. Sulaiman, and S. Mohd (2012), Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in Malaysia: A Cointegration Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, Energy Policy, 51, 184-191.
Bernauer, T. and V. Koubi (2006), States as Providers of Public Goods: How Does Government Size Affect Environmental Quality? Available at SSRN, http://ssrn.com/abstract=900487
Chakraborty, S. (2009), The Boom and the Bust of the Japanese Economy: A Quantitative Look at the Period 1980–2000, Japan and the World Economy, 21(1), 116-131.
Fredrik, C., S. Lundström (2001), Political and Economic Freedom and the Environment: The Case of CO2 Emissions. Working Papers in Economics, No.29. Department of Economics Göteborg University.
Grossman, G. M. and A. B. Krueger (1991), Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Paper No. 3914.
Grossman, G. M. and A. B. Krueger (1995), Economic Growth and the Environment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(2), 353-377.
Halkos, G. and E. Paizanos (2013), The Effect of Government Expenditure on the Environment: An Empirical Investigation. Ecological Economics, 91, 48-56.
Halkos, G. and E. Paizanos (2015), Effects of Macroeconomic Policy on Air Quality: Evidence from the US. MPRA No. 62001.
Halkos, G. and E. Paizanos (2015), Fiscal Policy and Economic Performance: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature. MPRA No.67737.
Hayashi, F. and P. C. Edward (2002), The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade. Review of Economic Dynamics, 5(1), 206-235.
Hiroyuki Taguchi (2012), The Environmental Kuznets Curve in ASIA: The Case of  Sulphur and Carbon Emissions, Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 19(2), 77-92.
Holtz-Eakin, D. and T. Selden (1995), Stoking the Fires? CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth. Journal of Public Economics, 57(1), 85-101.
Johansen, S. (1991), Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica Econometric Society, 59(6), 1551-1580.
Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 0305-9049.
Ke, T. Y. and J. L. Hu (2011), CO2 Emissions and Productivity in APEC Member Economies, Open Environmental Sciences, 5, 38-44.
Kwiatkowski, D., P. C. B. Phillips, P. Schmidt, and Y. Shin (1992), Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We that Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root? Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
Kuznets, S. (1955), Economic Growth and Income Inequality, An American Economic Review, 45, 1-28.
Lopez, R., G. Galinato and A. Islam (2011), Fiscal Spending and the Environment: Theory and Empirics. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 62(2), 180-198.
Muhammad, S., H. Q. Adnan and A. K. Tiwari (2013), Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, Financial Development, International Trade and CO2 Emissions, in Indonesia, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 109-121.
Ozturk, I. (2010), A Literature Survey on Energy–Growth Nexus. Energy Policy, 38(1), 340-349.
Rafindadi A. A. (2016), Revisiting the Concept of Environmental Kuznets Curve in Period of Energy Disaster and Deteriorating Income: Empirical Evidence from Japan, Energy Policy, 94, 274-284.
Shafik, N. (1994), Economic Development and Environmental Quality: an Econometric Analysis, Oxford Economic Papers, 6(0), 757-73.
Shahbaz, M., A. S. Sakiru, and M. Haider (2013), Does Financial Development Reduce CO2 Emissions in Malaysian Economy? A Time Series Analysis, Economic Modelling, 35, 145-152.
Shahbaz, M., H. L. Hooi, and S. S. Muhammad (2012), Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Pakistan: Cointegration and Granger Cusality, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(5), 2947-2953.
Selden T. M., and S. Daqing (1994), Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27(2), 147-162.
Walter Enders (2015), Applied Econometric Time series, Fourth Edition. Wiley Publiser.
Yaguchi Y., T. Sonobe, and K. Otsuka (2007), Beyond the Environmental Kuznets Curve: a Comparative Study of SO2 and CO2 Emissions between Japan and China, Environment and Development Economics, 12(3), 445-470.