於成熟市場及激烈競爭壓力的時代，愈來愈多的企業了解最珍貴的資產是現有的客戶基礎，國內證券業目前屬於高度競爭之成熟產業，每家證券商銷售的商品，無論是股票、債券、期貨或選擇權均屬標準化產品，對投資人而言，並不會因為在不同證券商買賣而有產品上的差異；如何留住客戶已成為證券商的重要課題。本研究以Y證券商客戶為研究對象，探討客戶流失原因及回流對策。

研究論文第ㄧ部份先用生存分析法探討客戶流失的可能原因，求算出每位客戶的生存函數，再使用集群分析將客戶依據生存函數分為高流失風險、中高流失風險、中低流失風險及低流失風險四個集群，以了解各集群的特徵。第二部份則使用羅吉斯回歸探討影響客戶回流的變數。本研究結論有(1)客戶行為變數，如開立帳戶數、購買商品數、帳戶資產市值及每月平均交易量等越多，客戶流失風險越低，而傳統下單客戶較電子下單客戶容易流失;(2)客戶類別與開戶年龄對流失有明顯的影響;(3)企業合併對流失與否有明顯的影響;(4)電子下單客戶回流機率較傳統下單客戶高;(5)優惠手續費率對於客戶回流有明顯的影響;(6)客戶流失前與企業往來期間越長，客戶回流率越高。

依據研究結論，透過探討客戶流失的影響因素，使得企業能有效發展早期預警系統，定義出可能潛在的流失者，並採取行動去保留客戶。而本研究進一步依據客戶生存函數進行集群分析，企業可以針對不同客群擬定不同的保留客戶策略及移轉至流失風險較低客群的策略。而透過研究影響客戶回流的因素，讓證券商在找回客戶的過程中，能將資源集中在回流可能性較高的客戶身上，尤其是採取降價策略時，可減少亂槍打鳥造成資源的浪費。

Under the environment of the ripe market and the tough enterprise competition, more and more companies realize that the most precious assets are existing customers. Deregulation in the securities industries is increasing competition in the securities marketplaces. There are no difference of each securities firm’s products (including stocks, bonds, futures and options), so how to retain customers is the most important subject of securities firms. This paper explore the reasons of customer attrition and winback strategies in the warehouse data of Y securities firm.

The first part of this study explores the reasons of customer attrition using survival analysis, then clusters customers to four groups by customer’s survival function to understand every groups characteristics. The second part of this study explores customer winback strategies. Our finding suggests that: (1)some customer behavior predictors - total number of accounts, total number of products, monetary values, and trading amounts - have negative impact on customer attrition;(2)age and gender have significant impact on customer attrition;(3)merger have significant impact on customer attrition;(4)for restart customers, internet trading customers are more likely reacquisition than other customers;(5)trading fee have significant impact on recapturing lost customer; and(6)for restart customers, the length of their first tenure with a firm is positively related to reacquisition probability.

According to the conclusion of this research, by predicting which customers are likely to churn, a securities firm can reduce the churn rates by offering the customers ‘new’ incentives to stay. In addition, by exploring how to recapture lost customers, we provide some suggestions for securities firms to focus on customers who are more likely to be required, particularly lowering trading fee to recapturing lost customers.

目  錄
目  錄------------------------------------------------	I
圖目錄------------------------------------------------	III
表目錄------------------------------------------------	IV
第一章 緒論-------------------------------------------	1
第一節 研究背景與動機---------------------------------	1
第二節 研究目的---------------------------------------	6
第三節 研究流程---------------------------------------	6
第二章 文獻回顧---------------------------------------	8
第一節 我國證券商之經營環境與競爭現況-----------------	8
第二節 客戶流失相關文獻探討---------------------------	10
第三節 客戶回流對策相關文獻---------------------------	17
第三章 研究設計---------------------------------------	20
第一節 研究架構---------------------------------------	20
第二節 變數定義---------------------------------------	21
第三節 研究假設---------------------------------------	24
第四節 研究對象---------------------------------------	24
第五節 資料收集與分析方法-----------------------------	24
第四章 研究分析---------------------------------------	27
第一節 客戶流失資料分析-------------------------------	27
第二節 客戶回流資料分析-------------------------------	42
第五章 結論與建議-------------------------------------	49
第一節 研究結論---------------------------------------	49
第二節 研究限制---------------------------------------	53
第三節 研究建議---------------------------------------	53
參考文獻----------------------------------------------	58

圖目錄
圖1-1 研究流程	7
圖3-1 研究架構一	20
圖3-2 研究架構二	21
圖4-1 依開立帳戶數分類的客戶流失分佈	29
圖4-2 依購買商品數分類的客戶流失分佈	30
圖4-3 依帳戶資產市值分類的客戶流失分佈	30
圖4-4 依平均每月交易量分類的客戶流失分佈	30
圖4-5 所有共變量平均數生存曲線及平均數風險曲線	35
圖4-6 依資產金額分級的客戶存活曲線及風險曲線	37
圖4-7 依交易量分級的客戶存活曲線及風險曲線	37
圖4-8 依下單方式分級的客戶存活曲線及風險曲線	38
圖4-9 對行銷活動回應的客戶存活曲線及風險曲線	38
圖4-10 依性別分級的客戶存活曲線及風險曲線	39
圖4-11 依合併與否分級的客戶存活曲線及風險曲線	39

 
表目錄
表1-1  證券商家數、開戶人數及交易人數統計	2
表2-1  與證券商競爭性相關之業務規範	9
表2-2  金融服務業客戶流失相關文獻整理	13
表2-3  國外文獻有關客戶流失使用變數及對客戶流失的影響	14
表2-4  國內文獻有關客戶流失文獻使用變數及對客戶流失的影響	16
表4-1  客戶流失比率統計表	27
表4-2  客戶行為變數特徵敘述及流失分佈情形統計表	28
表4-3  客戶行為變數與客戶流失之ANOVA分析	31
表4-4  客戶人口統計變數特徵敘述及流失分佈情形統計表	31
表4-5  客戶人口統計變數與客戶流失之ANOVA分析	32
表4-6  環境變化變數分佈表	32
表4-7  客戶存活表	34
表4-8  影響客戶流失變數之COX比例風險模式分析結果	36
表4-9  各集群客戶數及中心表	40
表4-10 各集群與影響客戶流失變數之交叉表	41
表4-11 客戶回流比率統計表	43
表4-12客戶行為變數特徵敘述及回流分佈情形統計表	44
表4-13 客戶行為變數與客戶回流之ANOVA分析	45
表4-14客戶人口統計變數特徵敘述及回流分佈情形統計表	45
表4-15客戶人口統計變數與客戶回流之ANOVA分析	45
表4-16客戶優惠費率等特徵敘述及回流分佈情形統計表	46
表4-17客戶人口統計變數與客戶回流之ANOVA分析	46
表4-18 羅吉斯回歸分析結果	48

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