本文希望透過觀察歐元創設二十年來，總體經濟政策及總體經濟情勢相互之影響，以分析歐元區總體經濟政策是否造成歐元區會員國經濟條件更趨於統合或更趨於差異？並試圖描繪歐元區經濟治理之遠景。本文首先瞭解歐元區總體經濟政策之現況；接著，透過十年期公債殖利率與總體經濟政策目標分析歐元區總體經濟政策對會員國之影響；最後統整歐元區經濟治理在總體經濟政策之議題及未來發展。

透過殖利率與總體經濟政策目標的分析發現，歐元區的總體經濟政策對於貨幣指標外的經濟指標沒有明顯的趨同效果。說明現行歐元區的經濟治理應證最適貨幣區理論的實行，在沒有財政聯盟集中預算下，無法調和會員國間的經濟與產業結構的差異。也應證現行歐洲央行貨幣政策僅對貨幣指標上有效果，非貨幣指標較無明顯效果。

This study examines the interaction between macroeconomics policy and macroeconomics status since launch of the euro to further analyze whether the macroeconomics of Member States in the Eurozone has converged or diverged in the implementation of macroeconomics policy. In addition, it aims to depict the future prospect of the economics governance in the Eurozone. First, this study explores the present macroeconomics policy of the Eurozone. Second, it analyzes the effect of the Eurozone macroeconomics policy on the macroeconomics status of the Member States through the 10-Year Government Bond Yields and the macroeconomics goals. Final, the study summarizes the issues and the future development of the economics governance in the Eurozone under the framework of the macroeconomics policy.

Through the analysis of the 10-Year Government Bond Yields and the macroeconomics goals, it is found that the macroeconomics policy of the Eurozone does not have an obvious convergence effect on economic indicators but do have convergence effect on monetary indicators. It shows that the present economic governance of the Eurozone should prove that the implementation of the Optimal Currency Area Theory cannot harmonize the differences between the economic and industrial structures of Member States without a centralized budget from the fiscal union. It also should prove that the ECB monetary policy is only effective on monetary indicators, and economics indicators are less effective.

第一章	序論	1
第一節	研究動機與目的	1
第二節	文獻回顧	4
第三節	研究範圍與問題	21
第四節	研究架構	28
第二章	歐元區總體經濟政策之現況	31
第一節	歐盟執委會財政與經濟治理之相關規範發展	31
第二節	歐元區貨幣政策之發展進程	41
第三章	歐元區會員國公債殖利率之發展	51
第一節	會員國信用評等之應用	51
第二節	會員國十年期公債殖利率之發展	57
第三節	總體經濟政策對會員國十年期公債殖利率之影響	63
第四章	歐元區會員國總體經濟情勢之發展	69
第一節	會員國總體經濟目標之發展	69
第二節	各群組總體經濟目標之發展	80
第三節	總體經濟政策對會員國總體經濟目標之影響	89
第五章	歐元區會員國總體經濟政策之未來發展	97
第一節	會員國各階段總體經濟政策之搭配	97
第二節	總體經濟政策與歐元區經濟治理之問題	102
第三節	共同債券工具	106
第六章	結論	111
參考文獻	116
 
圖目錄
圖一 研究流程	29
圖二 1999/1-2018/12歐元區會員國十年期公債殖利率	45
圖三 1999/1-2018/12歐元區對美元匯率(EUR/USD)	46
圖四 歐洲央行資產購買計劃累積購買淨額	49
圖五 群組1對德國十年期公債殖利率價差平均值	61
圖六 群組2對德國十年期公債殖利率價差平均值	61
圖七 群組3對德國十年期公債殖利率價差平均值	62
圖八 群組4、群組5對德國十年期公債殖利率價差平均值	62
圖九 2009-2018年歐盟以國家為發行主體之流通在外債務餘額	64
圖十 歐盟28國政府與主權債券平均每日交易量	64
圖十一 1999/1-2018/12歐元區會員國十年期公債殖利率對德國利差	65
圖十二 群組1各階段HICP量化目標值	81
圖十三 群組2各階段HICP量化目標值	81
圖十四 群組3各階段HICP量化目標值	82
圖十五 群組4、群組5各階段HICP量化目標值	82
圖十六 群組1各階段GDP成長率	84
圖十七 群組2各階段GDP成長率	84
圖十八 群組3各階段GDP成長率	85
圖十九 群組4、群組5各階段GDP成長率	85
圖二十 群組1各階段失業率平均值	87
圖二十一 群組2各階段失業率平均值	87
圖二十二 群組3各階段失業率平均值	88
圖二十三 群組4、群組5各階段失業率平均值	88
圖二十四 1998/1-2018/12歐元區與美國總體失業率	90
圖二十五 1998/1-2019/4歐元區HICP年增率(月)資料	94
圖二十六 1998-2018年歐元區與美國實質GDP年增率	95
圖二十七 2001/3-2019/3歐元區會員國Target2餘額	95
 
表目錄
表一 債券價格之影響因素	8
表二 歐元區會員國殖利率相關文獻之計量資料統整	16
表三 歐盟總體失衡程序指標	34
表四 3間信評公司信用評等分級	55
表五 歐元區會員國信用評等分組	56
表六 歐元區會員國各階段十年期公債殖利率平均值	58
表七 歐元區會員國對德國十年期公債殖利率價差平均值	60
表八 各群組各階段對德國殖利率價差平均值	67
表九 盧森堡HICP資料	70
表十 歐元區會員國各階段HICP量化目標平均值	74
表十一 歐元區會員國各階段HICP標準差	75
表十二 歐元區會員國各階段GDP成長率	77
表十三 歐元區會員國各階段失業率平均值	79
表十四 第一階段總體經濟之數據	98
表十五 第二階段總體經濟之數據	99
表十六 第三階段總體經濟之數據	101
表十七 歐盟執委會評估共同債務工具之三種方法比較	109

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