本研究在財務危機預測變數的選取以及財務危機預警模型的建構上，採用與傳統文獻完全不同的創新方法。本研究採用與財務危機公司相同年度、相同產業中所有公司的資料，因此，不會有對危機公司過度取樣的問題；在作比較時，亦是將危機公司的財務資料，與相同年度、相同產業中所有公司的財務資料相比，因此，也不會有將不同年度、不同產業公司的資料混在一起的問題。由本研究模型中的財務變數計算所得的「總危險分數」，在發生危機的前一年，確實具有財務危機預警的功能。

This study adopts a totally different method in terms of selecting the prediction variables of financial distress and the construction of predicting financial distress model. This study uses total data of all companies in the same year and the same industry with the financial distress company, so it can avoid the problem of over-sampled in distress company. The financial data of distress companies compare with all the financial data of all companies in the same industry and the same year, avoiding the problem that mixed the data which are in different years and different industries. The “total hazard score” produced from this paper indeed has the function of predicting financial distress one year before distress.

目  錄
謝辭…………………………………………………………………………………………I
中文摘要…………………………………………………………………………………...II
英文摘要…………………………………………………………………………………...III
目錄………………………………………………………………………………………..IV
表目錄……………………………………………………………………………………...V
第一章 研究動機與研究目的……………………………………………………………..1
第二章 文獻回顧與文獻評論……………………………………………………………..5
	第一節 文獻回顧……………………………………………………………………..5
	第二節 文獻評論……………………………………………………………………24
第三章 資料來源與變數定義……………………………………………………………28
第四章 研究方法…………………………………………………………………………34
	第一節 研究方法……………………………………………………………………34
	第二節 本研究之創新………………………………………………………………38
第五章 實證結果…………………………………………………………………………39
第六章 結論與建議………………………………………………………………………51
	第一節 結論…………………………………………………………………………51
	第二節 研究限制……………………………………………………………………53
	第三節 後續研究之建議……………………………………………………………55
參考文獻…………………………………………………………………………………..65
表 目 錄
表一 危機公司的總危險分數在各項十分位數的累積百分比 –– 危機前一年……. 41
表二 危機公司的總危險分數在各項十分位數的累積百分比 –– 危機前二年……. 42
表三 危機公司的總危險分數在各項十分位數的累積百分比 –– 危機前三年……. 43
表四 本研究二項模型在樣本外預測正確率的累積百分比…………………………. 45
表五 危機公司的總危險分數在各項十分位數的累積百分比 –– 未加權…………. 46
表六 危機公司的總危險分數在各項十分位數的累積百分比 –– 加權……………. 46
表七 危機公司的總危險分數在各項十分位數的累積百分比 –– 未加權與加權…. 48
表八 本研究二項模型在樣本外預測正確率的累積百分比 –– 未加權……………. 49
表九 本研究二項模型在樣本外預測正確率的累積百分比 –– 加權………………. 49
附表一 財務危機公司彙總表…………………………………………………………..57
附表二 45 項財務危機變數定義之公式………………………………………………61
附表三 以最差的10%和20%為選取標準所得前 20 項財務指標及各項模型
所包含的變數彙總表…………………………………………………………..63
附表四 以最差的10%、20%、30% 為選取標準所得前 21 項財務指標及各
項模型所包含的變數彙總表…………………………………………………..64

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