本文依循Yip and Zhang (1997)的架構，代表性個人除了把時間投入於勞動及養育小孩外，也會把時間用於休閒，並探討生育率與經濟成長率兩者之間的長期關係。由於無法直接從模型結果判斷兩者的關係，所以以數值方法判定之，得到兩者呈現反向的關係：生育率的增加會使得代表性個人養育小孩的時間增加而投入於工作的時間減少，進而使得經濟成長率下降；當經濟成長速度提高時，勞動的報酬也會增加，使得養育小孩的時間機會成本提高，因而減少休閒與養育小孩的時間，因此會使得生育率下降。

This paper examines the long-run relationship between economic growth rate and fertility rate in an endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility and labor supply.  We assume the cost of child-rearing is time-consuming.  We find that a higher fertility reduces the economic growth rate and a higher economic growth impedes the fertility quantitatively.

目錄


第一章    緒論.............................................1
第一節  研究動機...........................................1
第二節  文獻回顧...........................................2
第三節  論文結構...........................................5
第二章    理論模型.........................................6
第一節  代表性個人效用函數.................................6
第二節  代表性個人生產函數.................................6
第三節  代表性個人的預算限制式.............................7
第四節  靜止均衡..........................................10
第五節  比較靜態分析......................................11
第六節  數值分析..........................................14
第三章   結論.............................................16
參考文獻..................................................17

圖表目錄


圖一：長期均衡存在........................................11
表一：參數值..............................................15

參考文獻

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Li, H., & Zhang, J. (2007),  “Do high birth rates hamper economic growth? ”Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 110-117.
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Wang, P., Yip, C. K., & Scotese, C. A. (1994), “ Fertility choice and economic growth: Theory and evidence, ” Review of Economics and Statistics, 76(2), 255-266.
Yip, C. K., & Zhang, J. (1997), “ A simple endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility: Indeterminacy and uniqueness,  Journal of Population Economics, 10(1), 97-110.
Micevska, M. B., and Zak, P. J. (2002), “ What accounts for the emergence of malthuslan fertility in transition economies ? ”.