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系統識別號 U0002-0402202000134500
中文論文名稱 從避險及制度平衡的新視野審視亞洲民主安全之鑽
英文論文名稱 A New Insight into Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond from Hedging and Institutional Balancing Policy
校院名稱 淡江大學
系所名稱(中) 日本政經研究所碩士班
系所名稱(英) Master's Program, Graduate Institute of Japanese Political And Economic Studies
學年度 108
學期 1
出版年 109
研究生中文姓名 徐毓琇
研究生英文姓名 Yu-Hsiu Hsu
學號 606300019
學位類別 碩士
語文別 英文
口試日期 2019-12-25
論文頁數 102頁
口試委員 指導教授-徐浤馨
委員-蔡錫勳
委員-唐欣偉
中文關鍵字 避險政策  印太四國  中國崛起  制度平衡  亞洲基礎設施投資銀行 
英文關鍵字 hedging  institutional balancing  AIIB  Quad 
學科別分類
中文摘要 本文研究問題焦點為具有相同民主價值觀及地域安全防衛利益關係的印太四國,亦即美國、日本、澳洲及印度,何以在面對中國金融組織「亞洲基礎設施投資銀行」的興起,做出截然不同的參與決定。美國和日本不加入該組織,然而澳洲及印度卻簽署成為會員國。本文旨在探討面對新興勢力中國崛起,上述四國擬定對中外交政策的動機及共同之處。

本文提出避險政策解釋各國面對中國崛起的歧異之處。不同於強調迴避及安靖的傳統避險觀念,本文的避險政策以抗衡、扈從、接觸的特性來詮釋四國對參與中國新建金融組織的不同參與決定。簡言之,依據各國對中國崛起的認知及詮釋,國家政策制定者採用最能維護國家利益的避險政策。

此外,本文以Kai He的角色理論及制度平衡理論為基本架構,提出修訂的制度平衡理論分析評論,藉此檢視四國在不同國際情勢對中的外交避險政策。

本文的目的在於提出避險政策已逐漸成為面對新興大國的普遍應對方式,原因乃基於各國著眼國家安全及經濟利益的強化,並且減少外在威脅及危險發生的考量。更具有意義之處為文中的研究理論架構,可以進一步應用於未來諸國面對新興勢力的外交政策分析及擬定的依據。
英文摘要 The United States, Japan, Australia, and India had the Quadrilateral security Dialogue (abbreviated as QSD, or commonly known as the Quad) in 2007, with an intention seemingly to contain China’s rise. However, among the Quad states, India and Australia participated in China-led institution, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (or AIIB), while the U.S. and Japan chose not to join this development bank. A question that arises from this phenomenon is why the like-minded democratic states make different decisions when confronting China. The purposes of this thesis are to investigate what motivates each Quad member to determine its foreign policy and to explore whether the Quad states have something in common in their China’s policy.
Hedging policy is utilized in this thesis to investigate the Quad states’ divergent policies toward China. Apart from traditional understanding of hedging as avoidance, this thesis proposes that hedging policy contains three major characteristics: balancing, bandwagoning, and engagement. Judging from each state’s interpretation of the rising power, a state will determine the most appropriate hedging policy to its advantage.
To further comprehend the application of hedging policy during the institutional policy-making process, a theoretical model is provided. With the application of this theory, it is easy to comprehend a state’s political stance under various circumstances.

The significance of this thesis is to manifest that hedging policy has been utilized to respond to the rising great power, with an objective to maximize national security and economic interests and minimize any possible risk or threat. Furthermore, while formulating a foreign policy, the theoretical model proposed in this thesis can be used as an analytical framework to develop a beneficial foreign policy vis-à-vis the rising great power.
論文目次 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION - 1 -
1.1 BACKGROUND - 1 -
1.2 MOTIVATION - 5 -
1.3 OBJECTIVE - 7 -
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS - 8 -
1.5 LITERATURE REVIEW: HEDGING AND INSTITUTIONAL BALANCING - 10 -
1.6 HYPOTHESES - 13 -
1.7 RESEARCH APPROACH - 14 -
1.8 OUTLINE OF THE THESIS - 14 -
CHAPTER 2 SHAPING OF HEDGING POLICY - 16 -
2.1 UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE RISE OF CHINA - 16 -
2.2 ESCAPING THUCYDIDES’S TRAP AND PURSUING SOFT POWER - 20 -
2.3 HEDGING POLICY: A TREND AMONG THE ASIAN COUNTRIES - 22 -
2.4 INCENTIVE OF ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE PROPELLING HEDGING POLICY - 24 -
2.5 DEFINITION OF HEDGING - 26 -
CHAPTER 3 NEO-ROLE THEORY AND NEO-INSTITUTIONAL BALANCING THEORY - 30 -
3.1 NEO-ROLE THEORY - 30 -
3.2 NEO-INSTITUTIONAL BALANCING - 34 -
3.3 INCORPORATION OF NEO-ROLE THEORY AND NEO-INSTITUTIONAL BALANCING THEORY - 36 -
CHAPTER 4 DISCUSSION - 40 -
4.1 THE US CALCULATION - 40 -
4.2 JAPAN’S VISION - 52 -
4.3 AUSTRALIA’S DILEMMA - 61 -
4.4 INDIA’S ATTEMPT - 67 -
4.5 TAIWAN’S ASPIRATION - 73 -
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION - 79 -
REFERENCES - 85 -
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